We have to understand the state of the program when NB took the reigns. The previous staff's recruiting had significantly slipped the last few years, in addition when Brown was hired, he inherited one of the youngest rosters in all of D1. He did not have a blue chip or experienced QB, WR, RB, or OL. However in a short time, Brown has managed to outperform relative to formal expectations/projections, esp considering the talent & youth he was dealt. Also in this period, NB has managed to improve the overall talent level, however while they may have higher upside, they are all still very young & inexperienced.
We saw significant strides forward in year 2, in fact you could say by looking at the Defensive & Offensive metrics we were one of the most improved teams in all of D1, which is great, but we still have a long ways to go due to our starting point being so far behind our standards/expectations.
We all see the limitations of this team, they are pretty obvious actually. However even so, we were a missed goal-line PI away from beating Texas, and a crazy fumble away from beating Texas Tech, both of those games we should have won, so only looking at Wins/Losses for last year is not a fair assessment of progress. That said, and considering we are a year older with many returning players, what are your realistic expectations this year? While we are still a few years away from being where we want to be, Year 3 we should see another level of progress being made. While we did lose two critical back-end pieces to our Defense, and Darious, if our Defense can manage to make subtle improvements, that will be ok for me. Honestly, our offense is where I want to see the most improvement.
Considering we still have Doege, and an inexperienced but talent 2nd string in Greene, I think offensive creativity is something I hope to see. Obviously coaches have to work with what they have, which limits scheme creativity or application, Doege while serviceable, should manage to make progress too. Sparrow & Mathis also need to make progress, they will need to be contributors this year at some point, but it all starts with our OL.
From an OL perspective, I was a bit disappointed to not see more Zone Stretch schemes to help our young OL last year. From a blocking scheme perspective, id like to see more versatility or a broader range of applications, to be less predictive, which has been a serious issue the past two years. Our WR's have hopefully solved their butterfingers issues, cause it was a significant issue last year, not only the amount of drops, but when they occurred, it always seemed like it was a critical 3rd down.
Overall, our defense can make subtle improvements and/or be as good as they were last year, this year its up to our Offense to show significant progress to begin to be able to compete against higher caliber teams. Even if they do, we will still be a couple years away before Brown has that "Breakout Year". I think our 2020 & 2021 classes has a lot of potential, if Brown can fill a few critical holes via transfer/JUCO, when these classes are developed & experienced this is when I think we will begin to see the fruits of Brown's vision, as how he choose to build this program was the right way, its a long-term plan that requires patience and not sacrificing long term growth to grab every decent JUCO player possible simply to hit 7 wins. While these players are talented, they still require time to develop & grow into the player they will become, which requires 2-3 years. WVU is not a Blueblood that can get a program full of freshmen & sophmore bluechips and win like Bama, Clemson, OSU, etc... WVU has always been a team that typically needed experienced upperclassmen to compete at high levels.
While I hope we see another year of progress like we did last year, we will still be limited until we have a diverse & consistent QB that can lead this team down the field in critical moments, a versatile & consistent OL, WR's who can win 1vs1 and have high catch %'s, RBs who can get that first down when needed & hit that big play to secure a win, a Defense that can shut down an opponents momentum, that forces bad decisions & FGs. While NB wants to play a team game, meaning control ToP to help his Defense, this doesnt mean you cant be explosive or creative either. Im super excited NB hired Kirk C as an analyst, a quality & experienced OC that will surely help bring new ideas to our staff, hopefully we hire him in a more long term role next year, but in any case he'll still provide new ideas & concepts to our staff.
This year is going to come down to:
1. Can our Defense maintain the same level this year, or make subtle improvements.
2. Can our Offense reduce last year's limitations & predictability.
Keep in mind, it took Rich Rod & Dabo both 5 years...... 5 YEARS before they won their first major bowl game. Dabo also inherited a much better program who naturally recruited far better then WVU on average, so his starting point was much better. Brown is building this team the right way, its a slow process that requires patience, but everything of real & lasting value requires time. So just because "ITS YEAR 3" doesnt mean we should play in the Big12 Championship. As long as Brown continues to recruit well, we have to give those players time to develop. Patience is not a strong suit of fans who are emotionally child like, who are outraged we lost a game at the last second, but fail to see the progress in the year prior the same team beat us by 30. The level of improvement we seek within this program does not happen quickly, its a 4-6 year process.. My point, temper your expectations for this year and dont apply any meaning to "BUT ITS YEAR 3"...
We saw significant strides forward in year 2, in fact you could say by looking at the Defensive & Offensive metrics we were one of the most improved teams in all of D1, which is great, but we still have a long ways to go due to our starting point being so far behind our standards/expectations.
We all see the limitations of this team, they are pretty obvious actually. However even so, we were a missed goal-line PI away from beating Texas, and a crazy fumble away from beating Texas Tech, both of those games we should have won, so only looking at Wins/Losses for last year is not a fair assessment of progress. That said, and considering we are a year older with many returning players, what are your realistic expectations this year? While we are still a few years away from being where we want to be, Year 3 we should see another level of progress being made. While we did lose two critical back-end pieces to our Defense, and Darious, if our Defense can manage to make subtle improvements, that will be ok for me. Honestly, our offense is where I want to see the most improvement.
Considering we still have Doege, and an inexperienced but talent 2nd string in Greene, I think offensive creativity is something I hope to see. Obviously coaches have to work with what they have, which limits scheme creativity or application, Doege while serviceable, should manage to make progress too. Sparrow & Mathis also need to make progress, they will need to be contributors this year at some point, but it all starts with our OL.
From an OL perspective, I was a bit disappointed to not see more Zone Stretch schemes to help our young OL last year. From a blocking scheme perspective, id like to see more versatility or a broader range of applications, to be less predictive, which has been a serious issue the past two years. Our WR's have hopefully solved their butterfingers issues, cause it was a significant issue last year, not only the amount of drops, but when they occurred, it always seemed like it was a critical 3rd down.
Overall, our defense can make subtle improvements and/or be as good as they were last year, this year its up to our Offense to show significant progress to begin to be able to compete against higher caliber teams. Even if they do, we will still be a couple years away before Brown has that "Breakout Year". I think our 2020 & 2021 classes has a lot of potential, if Brown can fill a few critical holes via transfer/JUCO, when these classes are developed & experienced this is when I think we will begin to see the fruits of Brown's vision, as how he choose to build this program was the right way, its a long-term plan that requires patience and not sacrificing long term growth to grab every decent JUCO player possible simply to hit 7 wins. While these players are talented, they still require time to develop & grow into the player they will become, which requires 2-3 years. WVU is not a Blueblood that can get a program full of freshmen & sophmore bluechips and win like Bama, Clemson, OSU, etc... WVU has always been a team that typically needed experienced upperclassmen to compete at high levels.
While I hope we see another year of progress like we did last year, we will still be limited until we have a diverse & consistent QB that can lead this team down the field in critical moments, a versatile & consistent OL, WR's who can win 1vs1 and have high catch %'s, RBs who can get that first down when needed & hit that big play to secure a win, a Defense that can shut down an opponents momentum, that forces bad decisions & FGs. While NB wants to play a team game, meaning control ToP to help his Defense, this doesnt mean you cant be explosive or creative either. Im super excited NB hired Kirk C as an analyst, a quality & experienced OC that will surely help bring new ideas to our staff, hopefully we hire him in a more long term role next year, but in any case he'll still provide new ideas & concepts to our staff.
This year is going to come down to:
1. Can our Defense maintain the same level this year, or make subtle improvements.
2. Can our Offense reduce last year's limitations & predictability.
Keep in mind, it took Rich Rod & Dabo both 5 years...... 5 YEARS before they won their first major bowl game. Dabo also inherited a much better program who naturally recruited far better then WVU on average, so his starting point was much better. Brown is building this team the right way, its a slow process that requires patience, but everything of real & lasting value requires time. So just because "ITS YEAR 3" doesnt mean we should play in the Big12 Championship. As long as Brown continues to recruit well, we have to give those players time to develop. Patience is not a strong suit of fans who are emotionally child like, who are outraged we lost a game at the last second, but fail to see the progress in the year prior the same team beat us by 30. The level of improvement we seek within this program does not happen quickly, its a 4-6 year process.. My point, temper your expectations for this year and dont apply any meaning to "BUT ITS YEAR 3"...
