Yohe: Projecting the Penguins’ opening night lineup, line combinations and more
By Josh Yohe Jul 16, 2019
Unless the Penguins plan on looking the NHL in the eye and fielding a team that isn’t compliant with the salary cap — it would be a bold move, but not a suggested one — another trade is coming.
It could be Jack Johnson, Nick Bjugstad, Bryan Rust, Erik Gudbranson or someone else. One never knows. What we do know, however, is that the current roster is close to what we can expect to see when the puck drops Oct. 3 against the Buffalo Sabres at PPG Paints Arena.
After speaking with multiple people in the organization during the past few days, I’ve learned a few things. Obviously nothing is set in stone and training camp, along with injuries, has a way of altering plans. Still, the Penguins’ brain trust has certain plans for certain players and a general vision of how it would like this team to appear in October.
Here’s a look at what to expect:
First line
Jake Guentzel ($6 million)-Sidney Crosby ($8.7 million)-Bryan Rust ($3.5 milion)
Total salary: $18.2 million
Even-strength goals scored last season: 67
Thoughts: It’s the safest choice for the Penguins’ No. 1 line. Guentzel can easily play on the left or right side and, so long as he’s with Crosby, he will produce. But the left side is more natural for Guentzel. Rust really came into his own as a goal-scorer last season before a late injury derailed his season. He scored once in the first two months last season, then went on a tear, largely alongside Crosby, scoring 18 goals. Crosby loves speedy wingers and Rust is just that. When Rust was a rookie, he was given a game on Crosby’s right wing. The experiment lasted all of one period. Things have changed and Crosby enjoys playing with him. There are other candidates to play on the top line, including Patric Horqnvist and Jared McCann. Truth be told, we’ll see plenty of combinations. But this is the most likely trio to start on the top line.
Second line
Jared McCann ($1.25 million)-Evgeni Malkin ($9.5 million)-Alex Galchenyuk ($4.9 million)
Total salary: $15.65 million
Even-strength goals scored last season: 36
Thoughts: Galchenyuk is a natural center and has been effective as a left wing. But the Penguins want to try him on the right side. Regardless of which side he plays, Galchenyuk is going to start the season with Malkin. The Penguins like to keep pairs of forwards together. You’ll see Crosby and Guentzel together just as you’ll see Malkin and Galchenyuk together. McCann was acquired to be the No. 3 center and, while that may be his future, he earned the right to play in the top six when the season begins. Mike Sullivan will want to have a defensively responsible winger with Malkin and Galchenyuk, and McCann is just that. It’s a line that should work. The Penguins’ fortunes next season will heavily rely on Malkin returning to form. He scored only 12 goals at even strength last year, a disturbing number for a player of his greatness. These are talented wingers who should help make him better.
Third line
Dominik Kahun ($925,000)-Nick Bjugstad ($4.1 million)-Patric Hornqvist ($5.3 million)
Total salary: $10.325 million
Even-strength goals scored last season: 30
Thoughts: The Penguins would prefer to keep Bjugstad as opposed to making him a salary dump. He’s a nice luxury to have as a third-line center and, at least from a possession standpoint, Bjugstad did some nice things with Hornqvist late last season. Kahun is a player who intrigues the Penguins. I suspect you’ll see him move up and down the lineup throughout the season as he has a reputation as a player who knows how to play with great players, which will likely give him some top-six time. But he’s likely to start right here, which sounds about right. The Penguins need to get a different version of Hornqvist than what they received in the second half of last season. I suspect they’ll be tempted to play him with Crosby or Malkin at some point. But if he can give the Penguins consistent offense with Bjugstad in a third-line role, that’s not a bad thing.
Fourth line
Brandon Tanev ($3.5 million)-Teddy Blueger ($750,000)-Dominik Simon ($750,000)
Total salary: $5 million
Even-strength goals scored last season: 25
Thoughts: Blueger is entrenched as the No. 4 center and, given what we saw from him late last year, he’s earned that spot. The Penguins didn’t give Tanev a six-year contract to be a healthy scratch. Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Galchenyuk, McCann, Rust, Hornqvist and Bjugstad are locks to be in the lineup. The Penguins didn’t trade Maatta for a forward they intend on using as a healthy scratch, so Kahun is in also. So what does that mean? It means, if the Penguins keep this group of forwards intact, either Simon or Zach Aston-Reese will be a healthy scratch. The coaching staff loves Simon, so he’d be my guess to start the season on the ice.
No. 1 defense pairing
Brian Dumoulin ($4.1 million)-Kris Letang ($7.25 million)
Total salary: $11.35 million
Thoughts: This is one of hockey’s best pairings. Letang bounced back and enjoyed an excellent season while Dumoulin is, other than Crosby, the most reliable member of the Penguins. Splitting these two makes little sense. They play well together and are capable of logging huge minutes.
No. 2 defense pairing
Marcus Pettersson (TBD)-Justin Schultz ($5.5 million)
Total salary: Undecided because Pettersson requires a new deal
Thoughts: The Penguins are absolutely in love with Pettersson, and I expect him to receive the bump into the top-four this season. Pettersson is a decent puck-mover and Schultz is excellent one. The current plan is for these two to be on the ice quite regularly with Malkin’s line. Schultz wasn’t bad last season but never looked himself after returning from a broken ankle. It’s a contract year for him, and I’d expect big things.
No. 3 defense pairing
Jack Johnson ($3.25 million)-Erik Gudbranson ($4 million)
Total salary: $7.25 million
Thoughts: Well, it’s not ideal. That’s a lot of money for a third pairing and there’s no evidence that these two would play well together. Gudbranson was outstanding in his short time with the Penguins. Did Pettersson play a significant role? Or is Gudbrandon simply a good fit in this system? We’ll find out this season. Because of the presence of Jusso Riikola, and because of Johnson’s contract, he’s the player the Penguins would most prefer to move to become cap compliant. So, look for Riikola to slide into this spot if Johnson is moved. If he’s not, this will be the third pairing.
No. 1 power play unit
Crosby-Malkin-Guentzel-Galchenyuk-Letang
Thoughts: Sullivan has some fascinating decisions to make with this unit. The only givens are Crosby, Malkin and Letang. The Penguins could go with two defensemen if they want to throw Schultz onto the top unit. From what I’ve been told, however, the Penguins think Galchenyuk would be a good fit on the top power play. Look for him to play on the left side. He won’t give them a one-timer option but neither did Phil Kessel. Crosby and Malkin figure to stay on the right side of the ice, where they’ve been effective for so long. Hornqvist remains good in front of the net, but the Penguins can’t keep their leading goal scorer off of the top power play any longer, so look for Guentzel to play in front of the net.
No. 2 power play unit
Bjugstad-Hornqvist-McCann-Schultz-Pettersson
Thoughts: Lots of nice pieces here. Schultz can run the point every bit as well as Letang, if not better at times. Hornqvist should still be good in front of the net. Bjugstad is a nice power play weapon because of his shot. McCann can do a little bit of everything. Not a bad looking group.
No. 1 goaltender
Matt Murray ($3.75 million)
Thoughts: The only question is: Will Murray have a new contract when the season begins? My guess is yes.
No. 2 goaltender
Casey DeSmith ($1.25 million)
Thoughts: Barring an unlikely trade, he’ll be the backup, which means Tristan Jarry is a pretty good bet to be traded.