Gee: Big 12 puts expansion on hold

[skygusty]

"Nobody is THAT unhappy - now."

Fixed it for you.

That Big Ten deal though is going to give the SEC fits. The SEC cannot afford the impression it has been beat at this game after trying so hard in collusion with ESPN to outdo the Big Ten and Fox. The SEC is going to have to politically (not because they financially need it) counter the Big Ten deal. When those two conferences get more, the Pac-12, Big-12 and ACC are lucky to get any increase and might have to settle for the current contracts until they expire in 8-10 years.

It's all about the Big10 and the SEC, that is for sure. The rest of college football are bystanders. Texas could make a unilateral move and shake things up but that is doubtful. Oklahoma could move somewhere, its possible but not as likely as people think. Notre Dame could sign on with a conference the day after pigs fly and they serve Ice Cold Beer in Hell. No, if there is a domino, it is the BIG or the SEC that is going to kick it over. The domino will come from either the Big12 or from the ACC. The PAC is isolated, they won't be givers or takers in ANY scenario. So which school has the best odds to be offered and accepted by the BIG or the SEC? I think they both would love to get Virginia and North Carolina into their stables.

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

Fair points but the SEC really can't or won't bring and expansion team in from same member state except maybe FSU. I hear ya on the AAU issue. That's the wvu problem right(not sure)? But I think Texas overwhelms that issue with their brand and state.

I'm pretty sure UF has blocked FSU from the SEC previously.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

There are so many articles detailing how financially bad the Longhorn Network is doing I'll let you read many of them for yourself.

Google: ESPN loses from the Long Horn Network.

The top 3 articles of many.

1.0 Costliest College Network in the Country has lost millions(Dec.26,2015)
2.0 Report: Longhorn Network Bleeding money in first five years. (Dec. 28, 2015)
3.0 In its first five years the Longhorn Network isn't the success that(Dec 28,2015)

There are many more articles on how bad the LHN is doing that I did not list but you might enjoy reading.

I'm assuming you can use Google.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

As I suspected, no source, merely hearsay. Typical for your level of understanding.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

To be clear Texas is an AAU member university.

They were admitted to the AAU in 1929.

The B1G,SEC,PAC and ACC Conferences would all want Texas to join.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

Well, you are not a total loss then you got half of it right. I never said Texas wasn't an AAU member, I said it did not satisfy both condition because the Big Ten has never admitted anyone in that did not meet those standards. The only university that has been extended that offer has been Notre Dame and as much as I like Texas (lived there many years) Texas is no Notre Dame when it comes to being a Prima Dona in the college athletic world.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

It's all about the Big10 and the SEC, that is for sure. The rest of college football are bystanders. Texas could make a unilateral move and shake things up but that is doubtful. Oklahoma could move somewhere, its possible but not as likely as people think. Notre Dame could sign on with a conference the day after pigs fly and they serve Ice Cold Beer in Hell. No, if there is a domino, it is the BIG or the SEC that is going to kick it over. The domino will come from either the Big12 or from the ACC. The PAC is isolated, they won't be givers or takers in ANY scenario. So which school has the best odds to be offered and accepted by the BIG or the SEC? I think they both would love to get Virginia and North Carolina into their stables.

I have been on record that I believe that Pitt and UVA go to the Big Ten, Duke and UNC to the SEC. The Big-12 will pick up the remaining good stock in the ACC and the rest will devolve into a smaller conference similar to the Big East and may merge with the AAC. I go back and forth on Duke or VT going to the SEC, but it would be one of them and Duke could be a partner for Vandy as cross rivals. VT would just be another doormat for the big guys with no upside whatsoever except market.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

I'm pretty sure UF has blocked FSU from the SEC previously.

You are correct. The SEC will not take GT because of UGA, Miami or FSU because UF and Clemson because of USC and if/when the SEC expands, it will be only one school from each new state.

 

[Buckaineer]

Just an update on BIG 12 expansion/ comprehensive improvement matters:

David Boren is now the chair of the leagues Board of Directors which is good news for getting comprehensive changes through.
http://www.theuconnblog.com/2016/4/...s-expansion-realignment-chair-of-big-12-board

The meetings are still set for May and June where the conference presidents will examine the evidence from the analysts and most likely begin making some decisions.

Right now the 10 team CCG idea is on hold--at least until after the May and June meetings. Most in the conference seem to believe (rightly so) that a ten team CCG could be more harmful not just in terms of who wins it, but in terms of tv partners getting a guaranteed rematch every year and not desiring that.
Chuck Carlton ‏@ChuckCarltonDMN Apr 21

Chuck Carlton Retweeted George Schroeder

Bowlsby suggested in Feb that title game, other decisions could persist into summer. Looks like it will happen.

Chuck Carlton added,


George Schroeder @GeorgeSchroeder
Big 12’s Bowslby doesn’t expect conf champ game decision in May/June mtgs. Presidents might act but more discussion/deliberation probable.



Here are a few more tidbits from ESPN :
from Trotter on mailbag:

Alex Apyan ‎@AeroApe51

@Jake_Trotter Seems like the B12 is really giving expansion its due diligence and keeping it quiet. (1/2)


Trotter: Yes, it's been rather quiet lately regarding expansion, but that is about to change with spring meetings coming in May. A few things to point out: The Big 12 could vote to expand this summer but wait months to decide on who to add. Expansion could lead to an extension of the league's granting of TV rights by several more years (they expire in 2025), which obviously would help stabilize the league in the immediate future. And as far as potential expansion candidates, one school I keep hearing as a real contender, should the Big 12 expand, is the University of Connecticut. BYU and Cincinnati, among others, seem like obvious favorites. But Connecticut could be a real factor in the discussion should things heat up this summer.

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/...-expansion-buzz-cfp-format-leagues-best-names

 

[Rootmaster]

Big 12-2=10 is looking at (rather consulting firm is) 10, 12 or 14 team scenarios for discussion at June meetings. Boren is the only long term view guy in the room.

 

[Buckaineer]

Big 12-2=10 is looking at (rather consulting firm is) 10, 12 or 14 team scenarios for discussion at June meetings. Boren is the only long term view guy in the room.

Boren is a "long term guy" in the room.

 

[Pitt4Life34]

I have been on record that I believe that Pitt and UVA go to the Big Ten, Duke and UNC to the SEC. The Big-12 will pick up the remaining good stock in the ACC and the rest will devolve into a smaller conference similar to the Big East and may merge with the AAC. I go back and forth on Duke or VT going to the SEC, but it would be one of them and Duke could be a partner for Vandy as cross rivals. VT would just be another doormat for the big guys with no upside whatsoever except market.

I'm on record saying that your homer view is the opposite of what could possibly happen. Texas and Oklahoma are the plums that hold all the cards. If those two go the Big 12 will be done as we know it. Big 12 can not afford one defection outside of Kansas to the Big 10.

 

[skygusty]

I'm on record saying that your homer view is the opposite of what could possibly happen. Texas and Oklahoma are the plums that hold all the cards. If those two go the Big 12 will be done as we know it. Big 12 can not afford one defection outside of Kansas to the Big 10.

Texas is a plum but may not be interested, Oklahoma may be interested but not as much of a plum as others potentially on the table. And, if they decide that keeping the BIG12 together is in their best interests, they aren't going anywhere. Kansas would be a decent, and logical get for the BIG but there are more interesting choices out there. Virginia and North Carolina are two states with much bigger populations that are also on the radar of the SEC and the BIG and would fit within their geography and profile. Whether UVA or UNC or Duke could be convinced to leave the ACC is an entirely different matter. VT would jump at the chance, and NC State might jump at the chance but these losses would only wound the ACC. So it's not solely about who the BIG10 and the SEC wants, it is a question of who is most willing to leave what they have, not just in terms of money but power, influence and tradition. WVU would be interested, PITT and Syracuse would be interested. I think Clemson and FSU could be interested. Out of those, I think only Pitt actually has a chance of an invite and only from the BIG, and not a very good chance at that. UVA, UNC, maybe Duke, Oklahoma, Texas and Notre Dame are the only defections that would cause earthquakes. Clemson and FSU and even GT would be big news but they don't realistically have a chance at either the SEC or the BIG10. To date, the only schools who have changed conferences were teams that were EXTREMELY DISSATISFIED with their conference affiliation. Only Oklahoma is making noises like this right now that I know of, so we'll see.

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

To be clear Texas is an AAU member university.

They were admitted to the AAU in 1929.

The B1G,SEC,PAC and ACC Conferences would all want Texas to join.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

Yea, I was under the impression they were not, but I redid research this weekend and found out I was incorrect.

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

It's all about the Big10 and the SEC, that is for sure. The rest of college football are bystanders. Texas could make a unilateral move and shake things up but that is doubtful. Oklahoma could move somewhere, its possible but not as likely as people think. Notre Dame could sign on with a conference the day after pigs fly and they serve Ice Cold Beer in Hell. No, if there is a domino, it is the BIG or the SEC that is going to kick it over. The domino will come from either the Big12 or from the ACC. The PAC is isolated, they won't be givers or takers in ANY scenario. So which school has the best odds to be offered and accepted by the BIG or the SEC? I think they both would love to get Virginia and North Carolina into their stables.

If UNC makes a move it would be to the B1G, and not the SEC. I think the same holds true for UVA. Va Tech is a much better fit for the SEC then the B1G.

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

Just an update on BIG 12 expansion/ comprehensive improvement matters:

David Boren is now the chair of the leagues Board of Directors which is good news for getting comprehensive changes through.
http://www.theuconnblog.com/2016/4/...s-expansion-realignment-chair-of-big-12-board

The meetings are still set for May and June where the conference presidents will examine the evidence from the analysts and most likely begin making some decisions.

Right now the 10 team CCG idea is on hold--at least until after the May and June meetings. Most in the conference seem to believe (rightly so) that a ten team CCG could be more harmful not just in terms of who wins it, but in terms of tv partners getting a guaranteed rematch every year and not desiring that.
Chuck Carlton ‏@ChuckCarltonDMN Apr 21

Chuck Carlton Retweeted George Schroeder

Bowlsby suggested in Feb that title game, other decisions could persist into summer. Looks like it will happen.

Chuck Carlton added,


George Schroeder @GeorgeSchroeder
Big 12’s Bowslby doesn’t expect conf champ game decision in May/June mtgs. Presidents might act but more discussion/deliberation probable.



Here are a few more tidbits from ESPN :
from Trotter on mailbag:

Alex Apyan ‎@AeroApe51

@Jake_Trotter Seems like the B12 is really giving expansion its due diligence and keeping it quiet. (1/2)


Trotter: Yes, it's been rather quiet lately regarding expansion, but that is about to change with spring meetings coming in May. A few things to point out: The Big 12 could vote to expand this summer but wait months to decide on who to add. Expansion could lead to an extension of the league's granting of TV rights by several more years (they expire in 2025), which obviously would help stabilize the league in the immediate future. And as far as potential expansion candidates, one school I keep hearing as a real contender, should the Big 12 expand, is the University of Connecticut. BYU and Cincinnati, among others, seem like obvious favorites. But Connecticut could be a real factor in the discussion should things heat up this summer.

http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/...-expansion-buzz-cfp-format-leagues-best-names

Even with Boren as the chair of the Board of Directors it still does not change the dysfunctional dynamics of the BIG12. Key members of the conference (TexA$$ on top of the list) only look out for themselves and don't see that what is best for the conference might really be best for them in the long.

Expansion will come down to two things
1. Do the financial numbers support adding G5 programs (including keeping TexA$$ whole)
2. Will TexA$$ play ball.

Speaking of keeping programs whole for giving up T3 rights, what about keeping other schools whole. As it relates to revenue generated from T3 package OU and WVU make 2nd and 3rd most amount of money. If you keep Texas whole, do you also keep OU and WVU whole as well?

The B1G 12 may vote to expand but wait as Trotter said. Maybe they wait to see how things unfold with the B1G final TV deal. The B1G is going to be making a but load of money, and could add to that by grabbing key ACC members. If that does happen, dominoes would start falling with an SEC raid, leaving other P5 programs for the BIG12 to choose from.

 

[Buckaineer]

The Big Ten has positioned itself to be a predator in 2023. In 2023/24 the Pac 12 grant of rights comes up for renewal with the tv contracts expiring. In 2025 the BIG 12 current tv and grant of rights are up.

The ACC's tv rights and grant of rights aren't up until 2027 -four years after the Big Ten will be getting another new tv deal apparently.

If the BIG 12 hasn't secured its future long before that time, then every school not named Texas or OU will be in a precarious position. But OU is leading the charge to improve the conference now with expansion, a conference network and a CCG adopted at the same time. Texas and everyone else will study all the details in May and June and are expected to have some presidential level decisions after that point on comprehensive improvements which will protect the membership long term.

A couple of years back Mark Siverman-president of the Big Ten Network had this to say--which could indicate future intentions of that conference:

excerpt:
it remains to be seen if BTN can flip the script and begin expanding in the opposite direction. (The westernmost Big Ten school is located in Lincoln, Neb,, which is practically the geographic center of the U.S..) "We're looking west of Nebraska to make sure people can see the kind of games we can offer,"

http://adage.com/article/media/east-young-man-expansion-a-boon-big-ten-network/300748/

 

[skygusty]

The Big Ten has positioned itself to be a predator in 2023. In 2023/24 the Pac 12 grant of rights comes up for renewal with the tv contracts expiring. In 2025 the BIG 12 current tv and grant of rights are up.

The ACC's tv rights and grant of rights aren't up until 2027 -four years after the Big Ten will be getting another new tv deal apparently.

If the BIG 12 hasn't secured its future long before that time, then every school not named Texas or OU will be in a precarious position. But OU is leading the charge to improve the conference now with expansion, a conference network and a CCG adopted at the same time. Texas and everyone else will study all the details in May and June and are expected to have some presidential level decisions after that point on comprehensive improvements which will protect the membership long term.

A couple of years back Mark Siverman-president of the Big Ten Network had this to say--which could indicate future intentions of that conference:

excerpt:
it remains to be seen if BTN can flip the script and begin expanding in the opposite direction. (The westernmost Big Ten school is located in Lincoln, Neb,, which is practically the geographic center of the U.S..) "We're looking west of Nebraska to make sure people can see the kind of games we can offer,"

http://adage.com/article/media/east-young-man-expansion-a-boon-big-ten-network/300748/

West of Nebraska is not Oklahoma or Texas. Maybe it is the PAC that should be worried. the BIG would stretch from coast to coast and be truly national. Why screw around with Oklahoma if California, Oregon and Washington are in your sights?

 

[Panthergrowl13]

As I suspected, no source, merely hearsay. Typical for your level of understanding.

J

As I suspected, no source, merely hearsay. Typical for your level of understanding.

Google: ESPN losses on the Long Horn Network

There are a ton of articles on the subject.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[Panthergrowl13]

Nice discussion on this subject.

I'm sure there will be much more on this topic as time goes on.

May-June for Big 12 expansion talk.

July for more information on ACC Network Progress with ESPN.

Lets see what materializes.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

West of Nebraska is not Oklahoma or Texas. Maybe it is the PAC that should be worried. the BIG would stretch from coast to coast and be truly national. Why screw around with Oklahoma if California, Oregon and Washington are in your sights?

It makes more sense that the B1G continues to expand in the southeast and larger TV markets. then what is available directly west of Nebraska. Yes, Texas is a huge catch, but does the B1G really want to spread that far south-west of the rest of the conference?

 

[skygusty]

It makes more sense that the B1G continues to expand in the southeast and larger TV markets. then what is available directly west of Nebraska. Yes, Texas is a huge catch, but does the B1G really want to spread that far south-west of the rest of the conference?

Only once did I ever catch a fish when they weren't biting. I was fishing Glady Fork above Elkins, and was sight casting to a rainbow midstream. I was incredulous when I found the fish on my line with the third cast. Turns out I had snagged a looped leader that was still hooked in its mouth. If Texas isn't biting, they aren't a catch for anyone because my fish story won't stretch that far.

 

[Buckaineer]

Southeast is great. Problem with the southeast is--all of those schools are either in the SEC or ACC. The SEC seems secure financially, and the ACC schools are locked down through 2027 due to the huge sums of money they would leave behind if they left before that, and the buyout fees they would have to pay as well.

The Pac on the other hand has huge revenue problems as their network is failing and they can't pay out but about 65-70% of revenues they take in due to expenses. Many schools out there are very upset and are becoming more vocal. Their contracts expire in 2023-2024 making them vulnerable if the Big Ten or even BIG 12 decides to move that way before they get a new tv contract and grant of rights.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

J


Google: ESPN losses on the Long Horn Network

There are a ton of articles on the subject.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

You are a perfect example of someone that is uninformed and feels the right to spout off hearsay. I do not care if someone has an opposing view to my opinion but I do expect them to support why they feel that way - other than they just do. When you can't show me why you feel this way your view holds zero value. You have made yourself irrelevant.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

I'm on record saying that your homer view is the opposite of what could possibly happen. Texas and Oklahoma are the plums that hold all the cards. If those two go the Big 12 will be done as we know it. Big 12 can not afford one defection outside of Kansas to the Big 10.

Perhaps it is a homer view, but I do not think so. Is my projection going to happen? It is not a sure thing but is it possible? Yes.

The reverse view does not hold the same level of probability. Texas is not leaving the Big-12 because the Big-12 is Texas. Texas knows that if it goes to any other conference it's days at the top of the conference calling the shots are over and the only thing bigger than the state of Texas is the pride of Texans. They would go broke before they lost their pride. Texas is not going any where.

Oklahoma does not really want to leave, which is why Boren makes such a display of it. Oklahoma wants a Big-12 that dilutes Texas' power over the conference by expanding outside of Texas and brings about the currently accepted stable format - a 12+ team conference with a CCG and a network. I can't fault Oklahoma for holding that view. Is it necessary to have those aspects to be a stable conference? No, but it gives the appearance of a stable conference and sometimes style has more value than substance.

People like to wring their hands over conference defections, but how and where would any defector go? A threat to leave is only valid if the member leaving has a place to go. Oklahoma is a great product but OSU isn't and one can't go without the other. Texas isn't leaving for the reason I stated above.

The only school that could defect and be replaced in the Big-12 the next day by Houston would be WVU. In spite of many reason why WVU works in the Big-12, WVU is an island in many ways. WVU only works long term if the Big-12 expands eastward and at present that is not officially happening.

The day is coming when the majority of the institutions that make up the P5 will form their own organization of 64 teams and all sorts of shuffling will take place. It might be 8 conferences, it might be 4, but it will set up a structure that sets it apart from those on the outside looking in. Those schools beyond 64 will likely be formed into another group of 64 and that will take care of most of the athletic bound universities across the nation.

I try to work trends not homerism, but you opinion is obviously different on this matter.

 

[topdecktiger]

You are a perfect example of someone that is uninformed and feels the right to spout off hearsay. I do not care if someone has an opposing view to my opinion but I do expect them to support why they feel that way - other than they just do. When you can't show me why you feel this way your view holds zero value. You have made yourself irrelevant.

This is an article from the San Antonio Express-News on December 26, 2015 about the LHN. From the 7th paragraph:

But it has, bringing into question the wisdom of ESPN’s sizable investment in the only single-school, around-the-clock sports network in the country, which thus far has lost $48 million, according to SNL Kagan, a media research firm.
http://www.expressnews.com/news/loc...hp?t=1f7d003bb4bc83a41f&cmpid=twitter-premium

 

[Buckaineer]

Some people may be missing the bigger picture. The reason that OU wants comprehensive changes in the form of expansion, a conference network and a CCG is not to neuter Texas or weaken their influence in some way.

The SEC is making more money than the BIG 12 going forward, and the Big Ten just had HALF of their new package announced--$250,000,000 per year every year--and it expires for redoing in 2023--so they'll get TWO increases before any other conference already behind them expands again. And that's only HALF their new contract--the rest is out for bid.

This is a major problem for the BIG 12 because it creates instability. Schools like Texas and OU expect and demand to be at or near the top in revenues every year. They won't accept being tens of millions behind their peers like some might. The other schools in the conference are beginning to fall behind at various levels here--because each gets a different amount for their tier 3 revenues. In other conferences the schools get the same more or less for their tier 1,2 and 3 rights. In the BIG 12 Texas gets in the $15 million range, OU,Kansas and WVU in the $7-$6 million range and then some get in the $4 million range for these rights. That creates a disparity that creates differing abilities to compete and succeed and also makes for instability down the road.

The other major factor is competitiveness. BIG 12 recruiting has been falling off as their positive exposure has decreased and other conferences infiltrate BIG 12 recruiting country. The conference is disadvantaged in making the playoffs because everyone but them plays a CCG and gets a boost in the voting for that. Also, playing a round robin schedule just gurantees losses and not much else--schools are beating each other up.

Third are the upcoming tv contract negotiations. Extremely important especially in light of where the Big Ten is going to be shortly. The BIG 12 must improve in footprint, markets, viewers and success in order to land a competitive bid from tv partners.

With expansion, a conference network and a CCG the BIG 12 can -at the same time-address these needs and concerns and place themselves in a better competitive and financial situation going forward. Its about strengthening the entire membership, not just affecting one school or another. So far everyone is working together and we should see some results of that this summer.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

You are a perfect example of someone that is uninformed and feels the right to spout off hearsay. I do not care if someone has an opposing view to my opinion but I do expect them to support why they feel that way - other than they just do. When you can't show me why you feel this way your view holds zero value. You have made yourself irrelevant.

I guess you don't know how to use Google

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[Charleston Mountie]

This is an article from the San Antonio Express-News on December 26, 2015 about the LHN. From the 7th paragraph:

But it has, bringing into question the wisdom of ESPN’s sizable investment in the only single-school, around-the-clock sports network in the country, which thus far has lost $48 million, according to SNL Kagan, a media research firm.
http://www.expressnews.com/news/loc...hp?t=1f7d003bb4bc83a41f&cmpid=twitter-premium

Thank you Panthergrowl...oh wait, its Topdecktiger, the guy notorious for butting into conversation because no one will intentionally talk to him.

The only source that can be substantiated on this aspect is from ESPN. Everyone else is guessing and a guess is not a fact, but hey it is you and you deal in guesswork.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

Some people may be missing the bigger picture. The reason that OU wants comprehensive changes in the form of expansion, a conference network and a CCG is not to neuter Texas or weaken their influence in some way.

The SEC is making more money than the BIG 12 going forward, and the Big Ten just had HALF of their new package announced--$250,000,000 per year every year--and it expires for redoing in 2023--so they'll get TWO increases before any other conference already behind them expands again. And that's only HALF their new contract--the rest is out for bid.

This is a major problem for the BIG 12 because it creates instability. Schools like Texas and OU expect and demand to be at or near the top in revenues every year. They won't accept being tens of millions behind their peers like some might. The other schools in the conference are beginning to fall behind at various levels here--because each gets a different amount for their tier 3 revenues. In other conferences the schools get the same more or less for their tier 1,2 and 3 rights. In the BIG 12 Texas gets in the $15 million range, OU,Kansas and WVU in the $7-$6 million range and then some get in the $4 million range for these rights. That creates a disparity that creates differing abilities to compete and succeed and also makes for instability down the road.

The other major factor is competitiveness. BIG 12 recruiting has been falling off as their positive exposure has decreased and other conferences infiltrate BIG 12 recruiting country. The conference is disadvantaged in making the playoffs because everyone but them plays a CCG and gets a boost in the voting for that. Also, playing a round robin schedule just gurantees losses and not much else--schools are beating each other up.

Third are the upcoming tv contract negotiations. Extremely important especially in light of where the Big Ten is going to be shortly. The BIG 12 must improve in footprint, markets, viewers and success in order to land a competitive bid from tv partners.

With expansion, a conference network and a CCG the BIG 12 can -at the same time-address these needs and concerns and place themselves in a better competitive and financial situation going forward. Its about strengthening the entire membership, not just affecting one school or another. So far everyone is working together and we should see some results of that this summer.

As much as I try to stay out of your yard, sometimes I have to come in and mow your grass. No one but a complete dolt would believe that Oklahoma or any other school in the Big-12 not named Texas wants to see Texas taken down a peg or two. Of the four teams that left the Big-12 all four said that was one of the main reason they left. I know you read articles and study the history, I have to assume you did not think this post through before you hit ENTER.

 

[skygusty]

Some people may be missing the bigger picture. The reason that OU wants comprehensive changes in the form of expansion, a conference network and a CCG is not to neuter Texas or weaken their influence in some way.

The SEC is making more money than the BIG 12 going forward, and the Big Ten just had HALF of their new package announced--$250,000,000 per year every year--and it expires for redoing in 2023--so they'll get TWO increases before any other conference already behind them expands again. And that's only HALF their new contract--the rest is out for bid.

This is a major problem for the BIG 12 because it creates instability. Schools like Texas and OU expect and demand to be at or near the top in revenues every year. They won't accept being tens of millions behind their peers like some might. The other schools in the conference are beginning to fall behind at various levels here--because each gets a different amount for their tier 3 revenues. In other conferences the schools get the same more or less for their tier 1,2 and 3 rights. In the BIG 12 Texas gets in the $15 million range, OU,Kansas and WVU in the $7-$6 million range and then some get in the $4 million range for these rights. That creates a disparity that creates differing abilities to compete and succeed and also makes for instability down the road.

The other major factor is competitiveness. BIG 12 recruiting has been falling off as their positive exposure has decreased and other conferences infiltrate BIG 12 recruiting country. The conference is disadvantaged in making the playoffs because everyone but them plays a CCG and gets a boost in the voting for that. Also, playing a round robin schedule just gurantees losses and not much else--schools are beating each other up.

Third are the upcoming tv contract negotiations. Extremely important especially in light of where the Big Ten is going to be shortly. The BIG 12 must improve in footprint, markets, viewers and success in order to land a competitive bid from tv partners.

With expansion, a conference network and a CCG the BIG 12 can -at the same time-address these needs and concerns and place themselves in a better competitive and financial situation going forward. Its about strengthening the entire membership, not just affecting one school or another. So far everyone is working together and we should see some results of that this summer.

The result could be, "Yes we are willing to expand, we just aren't going to do it right now." Then they will sing Kumbaya and a lot of furry creatures will come out of the forest and join in. Every one will claim victory and cohesiveness without having to actually do anything. This has a high probability of occurring, except for the part about the furry animals.

 

[Buckaineer]

As much as I try to stay out of your yard, sometimes I have to come in and mow your grass. No one but a complete dolt would believe that Oklahoma or any other school in the Big-12 not named Texas wants to see Texas taken down a peg or two. Of the four teams that left the Big-12 all four said that was one of the main reason they left. I know you read articles and study the history, I have to assume you did not think this post through before you hit ENTER.

Seeing the constant vitriol you spew every time you post, one wonders if you are in a continuous state of hormonal imbalance. No one wants to read that nonsense.

Your post is unclear. Are you trying to say schools in the BIG 12 do NOT want to take down Texas, or they DO? Or that schools left the conference previously left because schools didn't want to see Texas taken down a peg or two?

In the first part of your rant you claim no one but yourself would believe that OU or any other school not named Texas wants to see UT taken down a peg or two. Then you claim the four teams that left said that was one of the main reasons.

I have to assume you either didn't think your post through or read what you wrote yourself before you hit ENTER

Go back and try again, and this time check your negative incessant vitriol at the door.

 

[Buckaineer]

The result could be, "Yes we are willing to expand, we just aren't going to do it right now." Then they will sing Kumbaya and a lot of furry creatures will come out of the forest and join in. Every one will claim victory and cohesiveness without having to actually do anything. This has a high probability of occurring, except for the part about the furry animals.

Either they will expand or they won't. If they do not, the clock is ticking and Gee and co will need to get to work quickly--about six years left to go before things get crazy again

 

[topdecktiger]

Thank you Panthergrowl...oh wait, its Topdecktiger, the guy notorious for butting into conversation because no one will intentionally talk to him.

The only source that can be substantiated on this aspect is from ESPN. Everyone else is guessing and a guess is not a fact, but hey it is you and you deal in guesswork.

I gave you source for the claim that LHN lost money. Now, you move the goalposts and claim that only a report from ESPN can be taken as accurate. Funny, you are never that particular about a source that you agree with. If someone had posted that the LHN made money, you would have accepted it unquestionably. It's only when you disagree with something that you question the source.

Truth is, you are just pissed because I proved you wrong and you don't want to believe it, just like I proved you wrong about the Georgia Tech thing on the Texas board. You never had competent answer for that either.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

Seeing the constant vitriol you spew every time you post, one wonders if you are in a continuous state of hormonal imbalance. No one wants to read that nonsense.

Your post is unclear. Are you trying to say schools in the BIG 12 do NOT want to take down Texas, or they DO? Or that schools left the conference previously left because schools didn't want to see Texas taken down a peg or two?

In the first part of your rant you claim no one but yourself would believe that OU or any other school not named Texas wants to see UT taken down a peg or two. Then you claim the four teams that left said that was one of the main reasons.

I have to assume you either didn't think your post through or read what you wrote yourself before you hit ENTER

Go back and try again, and this time check your negative incessant vitriol at the door.

Your problem is simple and to you everyone seems filled with vitriol, you don't like anyone that does not agree with you. Just when did God anoint you? You have some good ideas, do some good digging and occasionally have sound conclusions but you cannot stand one word contrary to the stream of thought in your own mind. Dislike me all you want, I take that as high praise from someone like you.

 

[Charleston Mountie]

I gave you source for the claim that LHN lost money. Now, you move the goalposts and claim that only a report from ESPN can be taken as accurate. Funny, you are never that particular about a source that you agree with. If someone had posted that the LHN made money, you would have accepted it unquestionably. It's only when you disagree with something that you question the source.

Truth is, you are just pissed because I proved you wrong and you don't want to believe it, just like I proved you wrong about the Georgia Tech thing on the Texas board. You never had competent answer for that either.

See, here is the problem guys like you have. You read all of these blogs written by fan boys of by biased media outlets with some point to make that supports their organic ideology. I did not think it was necessary to move a goal post as the obvious intent was ESPN is the only source that can say what they are and what they aren't making. It is hardly my fault you are not astute enough to grasp something so obvious. Boo hoo to someone that cares. There is no source material supporting the claim in this thread.

 

[topdecktiger]

See, here is the problem guys like you have. You read all of these blogs written by fan boys of by biased media outlets with some point to make that supports their organic ideology. I did not think it was necessary to move a goal post as the obvious intent was ESPN is the only source that can say what they are and what they aren't making. It is hardly my fault you are not astute enough to grasp something so obvious. Boo hoo to someone that cares. There is no source material supporting the claim in this thread.

The San Antonio Express-Tribune is not a blog. It's a mainstream newspaper. The article was written by a legitimate reporter, not a "fan boy." The author also sourced his numbers from SNL Kagan. SNL Kagan gets their numbers from ESPN. You were wrong again and just won't admit it. You can insult me all you want, but everybody else sees that you were wrong, and they also see that you are too stubborn to admit it.

 

[Panthergrowl13]

Thank you Panthergrowl...oh wait, its Topdecktiger, the guy notorious for butting into conversation because no one will intentionally talk to him.

The only source that can be substantiated on this aspect is from ESPN. Everyone else is guessing and a guess is not a fact, but hey it is you and you deal in guesswork.

If you don't like the source from Topdecktiger (who by the way is extremely knowledgeable on this subject) then you can find one to refute what he/I are saying.

As I mentioned to you repeatedly, there are multiple articles referencing the losses incurred by the LHN.
Go to Google, type in: ESPN losses from the Long Horn Network

Whola, a plethora of articles appear on this topic. Not one will refute what we have been saying.
However, you won't do that or will produce anything to substantiate what you are saying but will comeback with some other nonsense.

As I stated many times in my previous post dealing with the LHN losing money for ESPN and the amount within the first 5 years was $48 million (which I stated in my first post on this subject).

I have no ax to grind here just entering this discussion.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[Panthergrowl13]

The future concerns that the Big 12 will have with Texas (and Oklahoma is already anticipating) is the fact that as the LHN continues to lose money for ESPN (quess what $100 million or more in 10 years) they will not renew the contract. A Big 12 Network (????) will not get Texas anywhere near the $15 million they were previously receiving. Falling substantially behind in revenue, they may begin listening to overtures being made by another Conference (B1G for example). Texas is a big plum for another conference because they are arguably the premier team in a very big state (27.5 million).

Oklahoma recognizes the fact that the Big 12 Conference is too small (as was the problem with old BIG East with only 8 teams) and wants expansion for preservation of the conference. Texas does not because it will make it harder for them to increase their revenue with more mouths to feed (especially with probable future demise of the LHN). The LHN created the first fractures in the Big-12 with Texas a&m etc eventually leaving but Texas didn't care. Oklahoma is now very concerned (aka Texas a&m etc)and Texas still doesn't care.
Why, because Texas knows they can pick any Conference they would like to join for additional revenue and be welcome with open arms.

Speculation. No one knows how this will eventually play out but it is critical to use past events to try to anticipate future events.

Will the Big-12 expand. Check back in May or June.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

 

[skygusty]

Either they will expand or they won't. If they do not, the clock is ticking and Gee and co will need to get to work quickly--about six years left to go before things get crazy again

The future concerns that the Big 12 will have with Texas (and Oklahoma is already anticipating) is the fact that as the LHN continues to lose money for ESPN (quess what $100 million or more in 10 years) they will not renew the contract. A Big 12 Network (????) will not get Texas anywhere near the $15 million they were previously receiving. Falling substantially behind in revenue, they may begin listening to overtures being made by another Conference (B1G for example). Texas is a big plum for another conference because they are arguably the premier team in a very big state (27.5 million).

Oklahoma recognizes the fact that the Big 12 Conference is too small (as was the problem with old BIG East with only 8 teams) and wants expansion for preservation of the conference. Texas does not because it will make it harder for them to increase their revenue with more mouths to feed (especially with probable future demise of the LHN). The LHN created the first fractures in the Big-12 with Texas a&m etc eventually leaving but Texas didn't care. Oklahoma is now very concerned (aka Texas a&m etc)and Texas still doesn't care.
Why, because Texas knows they can pick any Conference they would like to join for additional revenue and be welcome with open arms.

Speculation. No one knows how this will eventually play out but it is critical to use past events to try to anticipate future events.

Will the Big-12 expand. Check back in May or June.

HAIL TO PITT!!!!

Expanding the conference may or may not be a good idea but it will not solve the problem with Texas. When they HAD 12 teams it did not solve the other teams problems with Texas. Adding schools that are not in the P5 are the only option at this point but the problem is that adding those teams will still fall far short of revenue that the Big10 and SEC will generate in the future. The Big10 and the SEC are going to predatory regardless of what the Big12 does. After the Big12 expands, Texas and Oklahoma are STILL going to be available because they are still going to be making less than teams in the BIG10 and SEC. They will still be losing recruits (as is everyone) to the SEC and to a lesser extent the BIG10.

Texas and other schools may be willing to gamble that they will lose no one (important) to the next round of predation and that if they can hold together they may be able to benefit from the demise of some other conference. What does Texas have to lose by waiting anyway? They probably accurately assume that they are the school with all the options.

I don't know what the Big12 talks about in their meetings. I know that they are privy to more information, data, priorities, and stratagems, good or bad, than we are. The movers and shakers in the conference are also human and therefore fallible. Collectively they may make a dumb decision resulting from their collective self interests. The only way they could really move the needle on expansion is if Texas and or Oklahoma leaves. Adding Cincy and UConn are band aids that would generate some publicity but doesn't really move the needle the way the BIG10 and SEC will. When those two expand, they WILL be adding schools from the pool of P5 schools currently in other conferences. They will circumvent whatever obstacles present themselves if other teams want to move. The ACC and the PAC would love to see the BIG12 expand, two less slots available to lose teams to should the BIG10 and the SEC manage to pick off teams from their conference.

 

[Buckaineer]

Misinformation--A BIG 12 network will not get Texas anywhere near $15 million a year.

This is a totally false assertion with no basis. OU's president--member of the expansion committee and now chair of the BIG 12 presidents stated the intention is to make Texas "whole"--make sure they get what they would have in the LHN for a period of years.

so in short, yes Texas will continue to get what they would have gotten in the LHN.
Further, Texas will have a network generating millions that will extend long beyond the one that they have now if they join with the rest of the conference..

If the LHN isn't rolled into a BIG 12 network however, then in 2025 or so they will have to give up the LHN, and they won't be making $15 million in anyone else's network for certain-or anywhere close to that. So that isn't a problem for the BIG 12, its a problem for those that covet Texas for their conference. They'll be able to make as much in a BIG 12 conference network as anywhere else. The conference will get a new tv deal by 2025 and that will be a much stronger contract if comprehensive improvement is adopted in the near future. Neither Texas nor anyone else will be hurting for revenues.

 

[topdecktiger]

Misinformation--A BIG 12 network will not get Texas anywhere near $15 million a year.

This is a totally false assertion with no basis. OU's president--member of the expansion committee and now chair of the BIG 12 presidents stated the intention is to make Texas "whole"--make sure they get what they would have in the LHN for a period of years.

so in short, yes Texas will continue to get what they would have gotten in the LHN.
Further, Texas will have a network generating millions that will extend long beyond the one that they have now if they join with the rest of the conference..

If the LHN isn't rolled into a BIG 12 network however, then in 2025 or so they will have to give up the LHN, and they won't be making $15 million in anyone else's network for certain-or anywhere close to that. So that isn't a problem for the BIG 12, its a problem for those that covet Texas for their conference. They'll be able to make as much in a BIG 12 conference network as anywhere else. The conference will get a new tv deal by 2025 and that will be a much stronger contract if comprehensive improvement is adopted in the near future. Neither Texas nor anyone else will be hurting for revenues.

One thing about it though. IMG also has to get paid, not just Texas. ESPN actually pays IMG for the LHN, and then IMG splits that money with Texas. I don't know how much IMG gets, but the whole pot is $15 million + IMG's take. That's actually what has to be paid off, not just the $15 million to Texas.