What do you mean when you say I was "wrong about expansion"?
I haven't ever said something specific would happen with expansion, I discussed what the conference was considering and why they were considering it . I agreed with what they were trying to accomplish because those steps would guarantee the long term viability of the conference.
Now UT has blocked all of that- but wants the money from a championship game so pushed the members to give them that even though many of the coaches have not wanted that.
You claim that will be a benefit. It might be better statistically according to the analysts than remaining at ten without one- because the other conferences have one. BUT, that doesn't address if the team that won the first matchup loses the second time around.
In the five years the BIg 12 had rematches previously, 40% of the time the team beaten in the first matchup won the CCG rematch.
40% of the time between 2017 and 2025 will mean that more than 3 of those 8 years the BIG 12 is left out.
The problem with people like you is you can't think past today.
Expansion for "expansions sake" never had anything to do with why the BIG 12 wanted to expand. That was what those opposed to expansion tried to make it into in order to keep the conference from acting in its best interests.
And unfortunately they have succeeded. Expansion was about bringing BIG 12 revenues up to par with their peers long term, and eliminating any competitive disadvantages, as well as setting up a conference network and setting the conference up to have a larger footprint , more inventory and more viewers for the next contract negotiations.
3-5 years from now the BIg 12 will be 3-5 years further behind the Big Ten and SEC in revenues which will make keeping up with them impossible except for- you guessed it, Texas. The BIg 12 will have three- five more years of mediocre viewing and three- five more years of steady negative press. They will have been left out of the playoffs more.
If the BIG 12, after realizing yet again they made a colossal mistake-looks at schools many have been duped into thinking are " worthless commuter schools" 3-5 years down the line? Those schools are going to be 3-5 years removed from revenues, good tv deals, everything that would have allowed them to remain competitive. If they aren't attractive now, what will they be when they haven't been on tv or had competitive revenues or recruiting for another five years?
You as usual bring up the ACC pipe dream that isn't ever going to happen. The ACC isn't going anywhere and in fact WVU fans better hope it doesn't because it's going to have one of the two possible slots left for WVU to remain relevant once UT and OU walk Out with a couple of others. The ACC once again has a grant of rights that doesn't end until 2027. None of their schools are jumping out of that binding legal agreement or coming up with the 50 million buyout costs either.
Doesn't matter anyway because the BIg 12s deal is up in 2025- 2 yrs before the ACC can be even considered for poaching. The Big Tens deal renews in 2023 and the Pacs in 2024- perfect timing for a double raid on the BIG 12 to ensure the Big and PAC continue their partnership and competition is eliminated. The BIg 12 will not get to that next contract because OU and UT won't be a part.
If you think UT or OU are ok with being 3rd in revenue to anyone you need to wake yourself up because you are dreaming.
The Big 12 like you is short sighted. Texas is myopic. The other schools are surely realizing that things may not be rosy down the road, but as usual they are being strung along with "oh we are happy to be third" and " we may still consider expansion" so that they themselves don't mess up the plan of the powers that be by being proactive for themselves. They'll all be searching for a new home relatively soon.
You have been wrong and you are still wrong. The BIG12 is just fine.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/15994651/five-reasons-why-big-12-panicking
1. The league's leaders actually get along
"I don't think there's ever been a better spirit of cooperation," said Boren, OU's president since 1994. "The individuals serving in these various positions in the conference, they're very determined. ... They feel very invested in the Big 12."
The Big 12 has tried to demonstrate its solidarity before, but rarely sounded convincing. This time, there seems to be a genuine desire to work as partners, and not just until the grant of rights expires.
3. A realistic outlook on revenue
Bowlsby's ominous statements about how dithering would damage the Big 12's future financial position might have obscured a general belief within the league: We're not catching the SEC or Big Ten in revenue, and we're OK with it.
Big 12 officials, both publicly and privately are pragmatic about revenue. If the league can be a solid third among Power 5 leagues, and not a distant fifth, the plusses of staying together could outweigh the potential benefits of expanding or, in the cases Texas and Oklahoma, moving to deeper-pocketed conferences.
The return of the title game -- projected to bring in $27 million to $30 million -- was a revenue slam dunk. Friday's financial release also boosted confidence. The Big 12 reported distributing $30.4 million to its members for fiscal year 2015-16 -- a 20 percent increase from the previous year -- putting it third among Power 5 leagues.
The ACC and Pac-12 have more members, but is their long-term outlook much better than the Big 12's?
The ACC Network still isn't off the ground, and commissioner John Swofford's vague comments about the negotiations last month, combined with the market changes, doesn't inspire excitement. Remember, if the Big Ten expands again, its desired choices likely would be ACC schools, not Big 12 schools.
The Pac-12's distribution difficulties with its network haven't led to the revenue windfall members had expected. There has been grumbling about commissioner Larry Scott, who recently went all Big 12 on longtime UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero for botching the satellite camp vote. After nearly winning the realignment sweepstakes with Texas, Oklahoma and four other Big 12 schools, the Pac-12 has lost pizzazz.
The return of the title game -- projected to bring in $27 million to $30 million -- was a revenue slam dunk. Friday's financial release also boosted confidence. The Big 12 reported distributing $30.4 million to its members for fiscal year 2015-16 -- a 20 percent increase from the previous year -- putting it third among Power 5 leagues.
The Big 12's revenue model creates internal inequalities, but if the baseline distribution continues to rise and members capitalize on their third-tier freedom, everyone could be satisfied.
"It's something we actually like. We are all able to go out and find deals or contracts to help fit each other best," Kansas AD Sheahon Zenger said. "At Kansas, our contract with Time Warner allows us to have an additional 70 productions a year. Our coaches and our student-athletes love the fact that they're on TV all the time. If you're on a conference network, volleyball might only be on once or twice."
"That can be very substantial," Boren added. "That helps close the gap, the differential, between the Big 12 and some of the other conferences because our schools have been very creative."