Perhaps you would be so kind to list the data point(s) I am excluding.
Several. In an earlier post, you stated that conferences had an "escalator clause" in their contracts, which pays out more money when teams are added. Not true. When new teams are added, the contracts are reopened, and the network and conference renegotiate new terms. They may pay more, they may pay less, but there is no automatic increase.
You said that the SEC and Big Ten want to get to 16. There has never been any imperative for conferences to get to 16. It's not a magic number. Fans just say that because 16 looks neat on paper. There isn't any special benefit to 16 that you don't get at 14 or 18. You also leave out the Pac 12 in your scenario. You are emphatic that the SEC and Big Ten will expand, but ignore the Pac 12. That's important, because the only viable candidates for the Pac 12 are Big 12 teams. We know conclusively that the last time the Pac 12 considered expanding, they looked at Big 12 schools.
In an earlier post, you said that Clemson and Florida St would want to leave the ACC because they don't get enough money. Not true. The payouts form the ACC are similar to the Pac 12 and Big 12. Last year, Clemson got $25 million in payouts from the ACC, and Georgia Tech got $27 million. That's on part with what the Big 12 paid out last year. You also listed West Virginia's total as ~31 million. West Virginia actually got $23 million for the Big 12. The rest of the money came from West Virginia's Tier 3 contract. The problem is, you don't count the Tier 3 contracts for the other schools. Clemson, Florida St, and everyone else have Tier 3 contracts as well. You purposely don't count those for other schools, but do count them for Big 12 schools, so that the Big 12's figure looks bigger. If you want to get a truly accurate comparison, you either have to count only the conference payouts for everybody, or count the Tier 3 payouts for everybody. Otherwise you are just inflating the numbers.
In another post, you said that Clemson and Florida ST only stayed in the ACC because Swofford told them the ACC would get a network. What you ignore is that they had no incentive to go to the Big 12, because there wasn't any more money. Florida St's president issued a letter to the staff and alumni donors, spelling out the financial hindrances to joining the Big 12. Specifically, he noted that Florida St's travel expenses would increase by $2 million a year. The problem is, the Big 12 couldn't offer more money to make up for that, due to the TV contract issues. The reason they didn't join the Big 12 is that the financial incentive wasn't there.