It’s not binary, either them or the base. They add to the base. They don’t detract from it. The base is the base. It’s fixed at about 30% of the active electorate. It was coming out to vote regardless of who he chose as VP.
The question is would Tulsi, Haley, or anyone else that he could’ve chosen get more to add to the 30% than Vance. I contend, as does Born, they would’ve brought more in to augment the base 30% than Vance is going to. We’ll never know. It may be too early, but I’ve not heard any of my independent friends talking about Vance. They were all talking about the possibility of Tulsi and what a great pick she would be. Does that extrapolate nationwide? I don’t know, but they’ve been a pretty good barometer the last 3 elections prior to this one. They all voted for the ultimate winner of each of those elections.
That said, none of them are excited about Kamala, but they are waiting to see who her VP is going to be. If it’s Newsome? They’re voting for Trump. If it’s someone not crazy or a coastal elite, we’ll see. They haven’t ruled out RFK and I think most of them will likely vote for him.