Although the success hasn't been there over the last decade, they seem to be in the mix every three or four years. (Brown better take note)
First Class
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Baylor has had high-level success under three different head coaches now in Art Briles, Matt Rhule, and Dave Aranda. With Aranda locked up through the 2029 season and likely beyond, the Bears are going to be in the mix on a yearly basis.
Oklahoma State is the most consistent team in the "new" Big 12. Mike Gundy is also the best coach in the league. As long as that marriage continues, the Cowboys should be in the hunt for the Big 12 title and more each season.
The Next Group
BYU
TCU
West Virginia
BYU has the best chance of sustaining success. They have a deep, rich history and have proved it against some major programs throughout the years.
It remains to be seen how the Horned Frogs will do with Gary Patterson no longer in charge of the program but being in the hotbed of Dallas and with Texas leaving the conference, they should be able to have continued success on the recruiting trail.
West Virginia will be the winningest football program in the Big 12 once Oklahoma and Texas depart. Although the success hasn't been there over the last decade, they seem to be in the mix every three or four years.
Middle of the Pack
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Does this help Cincinnati win more recruiting battles against Ohio State or in-state talent? If so, Cincinnati could eventually make its way into "the next group".
Houston has a real shot of becoming a power in the Big 12. They're going to be the one to watch out of the newcomers thanks to Tillman Fertitta and the amount of money that's being poured into that program.
Iowa State has been much better under Matt Campbell, but last year they fell way short of expectations. Have we seen the Cyclones hit their peak?
Chris Klieman has done a great job with the program since taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder. That said, it's a hard place to recruit at and win at a high level consistently. They'll be in the mix for a spot in the title game on occasion. They'll be a 6 or 7-win team on a yearly basis.
Cellar Dwellers
Central Florida
Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas Tech in this group with the new members coming in, bumps Tech down a level. They're not going to be able to out-recruit TCU and Baylor even with Joey McGuire. Plus, they won't have the NIL possibilities that Houston has.
UCF will have a hard time competing in the Big 12. Sure, it may help them land some more Florida talent but kids are still going to want to go to Florida, Florida State, and Miami.
We all know the ceiling for Kansas is about three wins.
First Class
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Baylor has had high-level success under three different head coaches now in Art Briles, Matt Rhule, and Dave Aranda. With Aranda locked up through the 2029 season and likely beyond, the Bears are going to be in the mix on a yearly basis.
Oklahoma State is the most consistent team in the "new" Big 12. Mike Gundy is also the best coach in the league. As long as that marriage continues, the Cowboys should be in the hunt for the Big 12 title and more each season.
The Next Group
BYU
TCU
West Virginia
BYU has the best chance of sustaining success. They have a deep, rich history and have proved it against some major programs throughout the years.
It remains to be seen how the Horned Frogs will do with Gary Patterson no longer in charge of the program but being in the hotbed of Dallas and with Texas leaving the conference, they should be able to have continued success on the recruiting trail.
West Virginia will be the winningest football program in the Big 12 once Oklahoma and Texas depart. Although the success hasn't been there over the last decade, they seem to be in the mix every three or four years.
Middle of the Pack
Cincinnati
Houston
Iowa State
Kansas State
Does this help Cincinnati win more recruiting battles against Ohio State or in-state talent? If so, Cincinnati could eventually make its way into "the next group".
Houston has a real shot of becoming a power in the Big 12. They're going to be the one to watch out of the newcomers thanks to Tillman Fertitta and the amount of money that's being poured into that program.
Iowa State has been much better under Matt Campbell, but last year they fell way short of expectations. Have we seen the Cyclones hit their peak?
Chris Klieman has done a great job with the program since taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder. That said, it's a hard place to recruit at and win at a high level consistently. They'll be in the mix for a spot in the title game on occasion. They'll be a 6 or 7-win team on a yearly basis.
Cellar Dwellers
Central Florida
Kansas
Texas Tech
Texas Tech in this group with the new members coming in, bumps Tech down a level. They're not going to be able to out-recruit TCU and Baylor even with Joey McGuire. Plus, they won't have the NIL possibilities that Houston has.
UCF will have a hard time competing in the Big 12. Sure, it may help them land some more Florida talent but kids are still going to want to go to Florida, Florida State, and Miami.
We all know the ceiling for Kansas is about three wins.
Breaking Down the "New Big 12" Into Tiers
Can the Mountaineers run the new version of the league?
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