A few years ago just before Neal Brown was hired(but after DH left), I was curious about the length of time it usually takes a new staff to turn a program around. The two most obvious cases that immediately came to mind were Rich Rod & Dabo Swinney. Both didnt win thei 1st major bowl game until their 5th year, Dabo didnt win his 1st Championship until his 9th year. Clemson was also FAR better positioned compared to WVU when NB was hired, as Dabo inherited a talented & experienced roster and Clemson was recruiting in the 18 - 25 range pretty consistently before he was hired. Clemson is also in the upper portion of thick talent country, at one point South Carolina had more players in the NFL then any other state, not sure if thats still the case today or not, but my point between SC, NC, VA, Tenn, & GA Clemson is well positioned, not to mention its actually a beautiful campus in a really nice part part of SC.
Looking at Brown's record and his philosophy, I do think its a winning strategy that will work in WV. I also like the approach of playing complimentary football, which is when WVU had an edge, as we played good on both sides of the ball.
WVU's roster was the lowest rated, least talented & least experienced, then the last 20+ years when Brown was hired. Its why Brown heavily relied on players from the 2018 class, the only class DH recruited decently in the last 4-5 years. These were RedShirt Freshmen, and now they are Juniors, but one reason why we still see a young team is because the young talent coming in, is better then what was here. So while the upside is much higher, we are experiencing the typical growing pains in playing younger(but talented) players. Which has never been a recipe for success at WVU. Every good team through WVU's history had a majority of upperclassmen on the field. That is still not the case after 3 years, because the talent that was here does not offer the ROI as the younger players coming in.
A positive sign NB & staff are doing well recruiting players, which is absolutely critical.
That said, while I do agree with NB strategy of complimentary ball, and its obvious he's still extremely restricted in what types of offensive schemes he can deploy, as they are still dealing with serious limitations in critical positions, & a young OL to boot.
That said, HS offensive players want to go where they will be able to put up good stats. A high powered offense helps attract other high-end HS recruits. The one concern I have, is NB's conservativeness may eventually have a negative impact on his ability to recruit. That said, its to early to tell, cause the conservative strategy could be the best strategy at the present simply due to talent & skillset limitations.
Scoring 13-18 points a game wont cut it, and wont do him any favors attracting high-end game breaking home-run style of players. Lets hope Greene or Crowder develop quickly to reduce those limitations, along with an older OL, so our offense can put up respectable numbers.
Ive heard many people say both here and online they dont think Greene is the answer.... That may be true, but its way to early to tell from him. Perhaps if his 1st year wasnt cut short, but hes just a redshirt freshmen, and having an Elite 11 arm + quick feet, I personally think he just needs a bit more time to develop+mature, moreso on the mental side of the game. We also know this offense is not specifically designed for Greene. Brown said as much in an interview, saying its difficult to install two completely different offenses, so we have an offense created for Doege, with minor adjustments for Greene. So it would be a flawed perspective to assume Greene wont become a quality QB at WVU. He certainly has the intangibles, it seems like he just needs a bit more time. Fans are not known to be Patient, but anything of real quality takes time. Players dont become great overnight, it usually takes a QB an entire year under center before they find their rhythm.
Much like how our JUCO DB's ALWAYS perform far better their second year.... Well, Greene hasnt even started a full game yet and we already have people thinking hes a bust, playing in an offense not specific to him, his skillsets, & pros+cons. His height is not an issue, most QB's are shorter then OL, not to mention how many short QBs do well both in college & NFL.
Granted, concepts deployed now are based on this teams roster, weaknesses, limitations, etc.... Lets just hope a few players develop quickly so a lack of productivity does not negatively impact the staff's ability to attract high-end talent for the 23 & 24 classes.
When the time comes we are not as limited, Brown will need to learn when to be more aggressive to account for bad plays, TO's, etc, to put the game away... Brown did manage to beat LSU, Nebraska, & almost beat Clemson at TROY.... So he deserves the 5 - 6 years to implement his foundation, as things are more competitive at the P5 level, and considering his starting point, I still believe Brown is the right man to take this program where we want to be, and achieve realistic expectations, its just going to require patience on our part, and Brown will need to:
1. Improve Roster Talent (20,21,22,23)
2. Develop them (20 + 2 years) (21+ 2 years) (22 + 2 years) (23+ 2 years)
3. Get them experienced 22+1year 23+1year 24+1year 25+1year
2020 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2022 & 2023-2025
2021 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2023 & 2024-2026
2022 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2024 & 2025-2027
2023 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2025 & 2026-2028
For the types of players WVU historically recruit, for the majority, they offer peak performance (high impact) in their Junior & Senior years, like most players in sports, they get better as they get older. Unlike programs like Bama that recruit high-end 4 & 5 star blue-chip players that are high-impact their Freshmen & Soph years, then leave early for NFL.
Look at Mac Jones..... Mac Jones, sit behind two "Blue Chip" Heisman caliber QB's, for 3 years and only started 2 seasons. His 1st season as starter was drastically lower then his second season as starter. Thats having the opportunity to develop for 3 years.. under normal conditions.
Thats also on a offense with Blue-chip talent at EVERY position and 2 deep, with a quality staff, facilities, & resources...... The very best of scenarios, and his 1st season was nothing compared to his second season. My point, it usually takes 1 full season, even with 1-2 seasons to mature+learn as a backup.
So to think Greene wont be a great QB is a very premature assumption. Lets hope it happens in a timely manner so we dont continue to see a lck of offensive productivity that may/could negatively impact talent acquisition, which is our primary solution to ANY staff doing well.
We have to understand time to make course corrections is a variable, that is dependent on the magnitude of change required. Considering the starting point, and using recruiting based expectations, Brown and this staff are very much outperforming with lets be frank, a pretty dire roster(at certain positions).... Its definitely improving, just a bit young... So while we all see bad losses, like Texas Tech, or subtle issues that if resolve would have resulted in WIN, we must realize being "Close" to wins is part of going from absolutely horrible to very good.
Thats not to say we dont ask tough questions, or hold the staff accountable for potential issues, bad decisions, etc...
I dont think Ive ever came across another WVU so close to being 1-4 or 5-0, just a few critical plays either way we could be undefeated or just with a single Win. Its probably a statistical oddity for sure...
We all understand this team has talent & experience issues, that we also know Brown is resolving. Lets give him time to get that talent developed and see what he can do under normal circumstances. We gave Dana H 8 years, considering what he left Brown, Neal deserves 5-6 years before we seriously discuss looking elsewhere. Replacing staffs every 3-4 years does not work, we have seen that happen time and time again. The fanbases are so impatient and put pressure on the AD, and they remain in Loserville for perpetuity...
Some of these Game Management issues I hear people talking about, there are a couple mistakes that Brown admitted to, but Brown's game management has been pretty good, aside from a couple recent mistakes, and we are all not immune to making them. "Neal Brown is playing chess, while everyone else is playing checkers" an announcer made during a game because of Brown's insightfulness in his game management. A bad game, or a couple mistakes is not indicative of a bad coach. IT happens to the best of them.
My prediction based on this roster, we see this team & offense take a massive step forward in the second half of next season(2022). Because Greene is getting his toes in the water a little this year, it should help reduce the time it takes to find his timing next year, so mid-season is when I think it will come together with an offense specifically customized to Greene's Pros+Cons.
Looking at Brown's record and his philosophy, I do think its a winning strategy that will work in WV. I also like the approach of playing complimentary football, which is when WVU had an edge, as we played good on both sides of the ball.
WVU's roster was the lowest rated, least talented & least experienced, then the last 20+ years when Brown was hired. Its why Brown heavily relied on players from the 2018 class, the only class DH recruited decently in the last 4-5 years. These were RedShirt Freshmen, and now they are Juniors, but one reason why we still see a young team is because the young talent coming in, is better then what was here. So while the upside is much higher, we are experiencing the typical growing pains in playing younger(but talented) players. Which has never been a recipe for success at WVU. Every good team through WVU's history had a majority of upperclassmen on the field. That is still not the case after 3 years, because the talent that was here does not offer the ROI as the younger players coming in.
A positive sign NB & staff are doing well recruiting players, which is absolutely critical.
That said, while I do agree with NB strategy of complimentary ball, and its obvious he's still extremely restricted in what types of offensive schemes he can deploy, as they are still dealing with serious limitations in critical positions, & a young OL to boot.
That said, HS offensive players want to go where they will be able to put up good stats. A high powered offense helps attract other high-end HS recruits. The one concern I have, is NB's conservativeness may eventually have a negative impact on his ability to recruit. That said, its to early to tell, cause the conservative strategy could be the best strategy at the present simply due to talent & skillset limitations.
Scoring 13-18 points a game wont cut it, and wont do him any favors attracting high-end game breaking home-run style of players. Lets hope Greene or Crowder develop quickly to reduce those limitations, along with an older OL, so our offense can put up respectable numbers.
Ive heard many people say both here and online they dont think Greene is the answer.... That may be true, but its way to early to tell from him. Perhaps if his 1st year wasnt cut short, but hes just a redshirt freshmen, and having an Elite 11 arm + quick feet, I personally think he just needs a bit more time to develop+mature, moreso on the mental side of the game. We also know this offense is not specifically designed for Greene. Brown said as much in an interview, saying its difficult to install two completely different offenses, so we have an offense created for Doege, with minor adjustments for Greene. So it would be a flawed perspective to assume Greene wont become a quality QB at WVU. He certainly has the intangibles, it seems like he just needs a bit more time. Fans are not known to be Patient, but anything of real quality takes time. Players dont become great overnight, it usually takes a QB an entire year under center before they find their rhythm.
Much like how our JUCO DB's ALWAYS perform far better their second year.... Well, Greene hasnt even started a full game yet and we already have people thinking hes a bust, playing in an offense not specific to him, his skillsets, & pros+cons. His height is not an issue, most QB's are shorter then OL, not to mention how many short QBs do well both in college & NFL.
Granted, concepts deployed now are based on this teams roster, weaknesses, limitations, etc.... Lets just hope a few players develop quickly so a lack of productivity does not negatively impact the staff's ability to attract high-end talent for the 23 & 24 classes.
When the time comes we are not as limited, Brown will need to learn when to be more aggressive to account for bad plays, TO's, etc, to put the game away... Brown did manage to beat LSU, Nebraska, & almost beat Clemson at TROY.... So he deserves the 5 - 6 years to implement his foundation, as things are more competitive at the P5 level, and considering his starting point, I still believe Brown is the right man to take this program where we want to be, and achieve realistic expectations, its just going to require patience on our part, and Brown will need to:
1. Improve Roster Talent (20,21,22,23)
2. Develop them (20 + 2 years) (21+ 2 years) (22 + 2 years) (23+ 2 years)
3. Get them experienced 22+1year 23+1year 24+1year 25+1year
2020 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2022 & 2023-2025
2021 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2023 & 2024-2026
2022 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2024 & 2025-2027
2023 class peak performance = Seasons: second half of 2025 & 2026-2028
For the types of players WVU historically recruit, for the majority, they offer peak performance (high impact) in their Junior & Senior years, like most players in sports, they get better as they get older. Unlike programs like Bama that recruit high-end 4 & 5 star blue-chip players that are high-impact their Freshmen & Soph years, then leave early for NFL.
Look at Mac Jones..... Mac Jones, sit behind two "Blue Chip" Heisman caliber QB's, for 3 years and only started 2 seasons. His 1st season as starter was drastically lower then his second season as starter. Thats having the opportunity to develop for 3 years.. under normal conditions.
Thats also on a offense with Blue-chip talent at EVERY position and 2 deep, with a quality staff, facilities, & resources...... The very best of scenarios, and his 1st season was nothing compared to his second season. My point, it usually takes 1 full season, even with 1-2 seasons to mature+learn as a backup.
So to think Greene wont be a great QB is a very premature assumption. Lets hope it happens in a timely manner so we dont continue to see a lck of offensive productivity that may/could negatively impact talent acquisition, which is our primary solution to ANY staff doing well.
We have to understand time to make course corrections is a variable, that is dependent on the magnitude of change required. Considering the starting point, and using recruiting based expectations, Brown and this staff are very much outperforming with lets be frank, a pretty dire roster(at certain positions).... Its definitely improving, just a bit young... So while we all see bad losses, like Texas Tech, or subtle issues that if resolve would have resulted in WIN, we must realize being "Close" to wins is part of going from absolutely horrible to very good.
Thats not to say we dont ask tough questions, or hold the staff accountable for potential issues, bad decisions, etc...
I dont think Ive ever came across another WVU so close to being 1-4 or 5-0, just a few critical plays either way we could be undefeated or just with a single Win. Its probably a statistical oddity for sure...
We all understand this team has talent & experience issues, that we also know Brown is resolving. Lets give him time to get that talent developed and see what he can do under normal circumstances. We gave Dana H 8 years, considering what he left Brown, Neal deserves 5-6 years before we seriously discuss looking elsewhere. Replacing staffs every 3-4 years does not work, we have seen that happen time and time again. The fanbases are so impatient and put pressure on the AD, and they remain in Loserville for perpetuity...
Some of these Game Management issues I hear people talking about, there are a couple mistakes that Brown admitted to, but Brown's game management has been pretty good, aside from a couple recent mistakes, and we are all not immune to making them. "Neal Brown is playing chess, while everyone else is playing checkers" an announcer made during a game because of Brown's insightfulness in his game management. A bad game, or a couple mistakes is not indicative of a bad coach. IT happens to the best of them.
My prediction based on this roster, we see this team & offense take a massive step forward in the second half of next season(2022). Because Greene is getting his toes in the water a little this year, it should help reduce the time it takes to find his timing next year, so mid-season is when I think it will come together with an offense specifically customized to Greene's Pros+Cons.
