It's official-ESPN Hates us, says we have zero chance of

[Chazz Michael Michaels]

winning the CFP. (Well, make that 0.6% chance). Yet, undefeated, ranked #8/9 with 3+ ranked teams left on our schedule, including #6.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ollege-football-playoff-national-championship

They have Michigan and Washington ahead of us in that. On the 6% chance of even making the CFP, I guess they are predicting that even if we go 12-0 we'll likely be left out? Or are they predicting that we only have a 6% chance of winning the next 8 games?

Of course, their opinion is just their opinion. We need to prove it on the field. Hope Grier and company can make this season truly special for WVU.

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

Once WV can prove they can play methodical football with a lead.

A 12 play 8 minute drive then most people will not be a believer.
No matter how great your O is it will have 3 and outs and short drives that puts the D in horrible positions

 

[Chazz Michael Michaels]

Huh?

="SheriffBufordTJustice, post: 2115891, member: 35970"]Once WV can prove they can play methodical football with a lead.

A 12 play 8 minute drive then most people will not be a believer.
No matter how great your O is it will have 3 and outs and short drives that puts the D in horrible positions[/QUOTE]

 

[SheriffBufordTJustice]

What does your response have to do with my original post?

No one believes you are a complete team.

Great high scoring offense but one that is one dimensional and can't run between the tackles.

Any physical FB team with talent will beat you

 

[spartansstink]

No one believes you are a complete team.

Great high scoring offense but one that is one dimensional and can't run between the tackles.

Any physical FB team with talent will beat you

Well, at least we can eliminate Texass then. November just got a little easier.

 

[Beechurst]

That is because WVU has to win 4 games in a row vs. more highly-ranked teams, likely to include Oklahoma twice, Alabama next, then UGa/Ohio State/ND/LSU/Clemson/other #2 seed.

That would be a title run for the ages.

Happy Buck got his coveted championship game when WVU is in a fair position to have claimed outright B12 title winning last huge game vs. other top contender at home with wins over each other team. 'Sorry boys, ya gotta go an beat 'em again or they steal your prize.'

 

[oceantide83]

We do have 0% chance of winning the CFP.

 

[bobhertzel'ssweatpants]

winning the CFP. (Well, make that 0.6% chance). Yet, undefeated, ranked #8/9 with 3+ ranked teams left on our schedule, including #6.
http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...ollege-football-playoff-national-championship

They have Michigan and Washington ahead of us in that. On the 6% chance of even making the CFP, I guess they are predicting that even if we go 12-0 we'll likely be left out? Or are they predicting that we only have a 6% chance of winning the next 8 games?

Of course, their opinion is just their opinion. We need to prove it on the field. Hope Grier and company can make this season truly special for WVU.

It's not an opinion. It's a metric. ESPN's FPI is a computer data system that predicts outcomes of games. That 0.6% chance is based on the FPI indicating that it is unlikely that we win enough games to get into the playoffs.

 

[countryroads89]

Okay folks, settle down. There is a lot of football left to play. Let's wait and see what happens and enjoy the ride along the way. If we are 10-0 headed in to the OU game on Black Friday and they still talk us down, then you can complain.

 

[xWVU2010x]

I mean they're not wrong. To win the CFP we will probably need to win 4 straight against OU twice, Bama, and Georgia. Has WVU ever beaten 4 legit top 10 teams like that in a single decade let alone over the course of 2 months?

 

[bobhertzel'ssweatpants]

I mean they're not wrong. To win the CFP we will probably need to win 4 straight against OU twice, Bama, and Georgia. Has WVU ever beaten 4 legit top 10 teams like that in a single decade let alone over the course of 2 months?

WVU has never beat more than 2 ranked teams in a row period (AP). And even with that it's only happened 7 times in our history, with only 2 of the wins being over top 10 teams:

2012
Sep. 29, 2012 #9 WVU 70 #25 Baylor 63
Oct. 6, 2012 #8 WVU 48 #11 Texas 45

2007
Nov. 17, 2007 #5 WVU 28 #21 Cincinnati 23
Nov. 24, 2007 #4 WVU 66 #20 UConn 21

2002
Nov. 20, 2002 WVU 21 #13 Virginia Tech 18
No. 30, 2002 #24 WVU 24 #17 Pitt 17

1994
Nov. 19, 1994 WVU 21 #17 Boston College 20
Nov. 24 1994 WVU 13 #22 Syracuse 0

1993
Nov. 20, 1993 #9 WVU 17 #4 Miami 14
Nov. 26, 1993 #5 WVU 17 #11 Boston College 14

1984
Oct. 20, 1984 #20 WVU 21 #4 Boston College 20
Oct. 27, 1984 #18 WVU 17 #19 Penn State 14

1983
Sep. 17, 1983 #20 WVU 31 #17 Maryland 21
Sep. 24, 1983 #12 WVU 27 #19 Boston College 17


We currently have 3 opponents in November that are in the AP top 25 and another that just dropped out in TCU:
#7 Oklahoma
#19 Texas
#25 Oklahoma State

If we get through that & we are undefeated, then we would have to beat what will likely be a top 10 Oklahoma team in back to back weeks to make the playoffs.

 

[xWVU2010x]

WVU has never beat more than 2 ranked teams in a row period (AP). And even with that it's only happened 7 times in our history, with only 2 of the wins being over top 10 teams:

2012
Sep. 29, 2012 #9 WVU 70 #25 Baylor 63
Oct. 6, 2012 #8 WVU 48 #11 Texas 45

2007
Nov. 17, 2007 #5 WVU 28 #21 Cincinnati 23
Nov. 24, 2007 #4 WVU 66 #20 UConn 21

2002
Nov. 20, 2002 WVU 21 #13 Virginia Tech 18
No. 30, 2002 #24 WVU 24 #17 Pitt 17

1994
Nov. 19, 1994 WVU 21 #17 Boston College 20
Nov. 24 1994 WVU 13 #22 Syracuse 0

1993
Nov. 20, 1993 #9 WVU 17 #4 Miami 14
Nov. 26, 1993 #5 WVU 17 #11 Boston College 14

1984
Oct. 20, 1984 #20 WVU 21 #4 Boston College 20
Oct. 27, 1984 #18 WVU 17 #19 Penn State 14

1983
Sep. 17, 1983 #20 WVU 31 #17 Maryland 21
Sep. 24, 1983 #12 WVU 27 #19 Boston College 17


We currently have 3 opponents in November that are in the AP top 25 and another that just dropped out in TCU:
#7 Oklahoma
#19 Texas
#25 Oklahoma State

If we get through that & we are undefeated, then we would have to beat what will likely be a top 10 Oklahoma team in back to back weeks to make the playoffs.

I suspect oSu will drop out of the polls, but yea we would need some unprecedented magic just to get to the CFP let alone win it all. Not saying "its over" but its not hard to see why an algorithm would spit out a 0.6% chance for us to win the CFP. If Im not mistaken Florida in 96 is the last time a program won its first NC, and the parity is not getting any better in terms of haves vs have nots.

 

[bobhertzel'ssweatpants]

I suspect oSu will drop out of the polls, but yea we would need some unprecedented magic just to get to the CFP let alone win it all. Not saying "its over" but its not hard to see why an algorithm would spit out a 0.6% chance for us to win the CFP. If Im not mistaken Florida in 96 is the last time a program won its first NC, and the parity is not getting any better in terms of haves vs have nots.

You need a ridiculous amount of depth to get through that schedule unscathed. We don't have it & will likely never have it. We would need a LOT of luck to go unbeaten. There are really only 3-5 teams every year that have the ability to win it all. This season it looks like that's already been narrowed to 1.

 

[Cuyahoga Falls Eers]

We do have 0% chance of winning the CFP.

Make it 5% chance and it would apply to EVERY team not named Alabama, which wins half the national titles in 8 years if I counted right.


M agnificent Grier passes shredded Tennessee, 40-14

O verhelmed drenched Youngstown, 52-17

U nable to play North Carolina State because of Hurricane Florence

N asty defense against Kansas State, 35-6

T errific, then timid on offense against Texas Tech, 42-34

A nnihilate Kansas

I ncinerate Iowa State

N ail Baylor

E rectile dysfunction Texas

E lectrify TCU

R eam Oklahoma State

S laughter Oklahoma

 

[xWVU2010x]

You need a ridiculous amount of depth to get through that schedule unscathed. We don't have it & will likely never have it. We would need a LOT of luck to go unbeaten. There are really only 3-5 teams every year that have the ability to win it all. This season it looks like that's already been narrowed to 1.

Bama has gotten through the regular season unscathed only twice in the Saban era so I wont give them the trophy yet, but definitely an over 50% chance they take it home. But if not them then Georgia, Auburn, Clemson, and Ohio State would have the inside track over us to win it. If we find a way into the field we will have the deck stacked heavily against us and rightfully so. We are elite at 2 positions, QB and WR. The others will be elite pretty much across the board, and not being elite in the trenches means Grier will need to put on an absolute show to win this thing (Deshaun Watson or Vince Young).