This is from ESPN+ ( I guess I am getting the most from my $5 per month investment). They basically used a zero odds based avg. against multiple turnover options. I guess the question is, is this luck or lack of skill or coaching...I guess the UT game had double impact.
Best and worst overall 2019 turnover luck
Here are the 11 teams with a turnover margin at least five turnovers better than expected. Not all of them have done well this year, but their win total has still potentially been a bit inflated.
1. SJSU (+12 margin, -0.1 expected, +12.1)
2. FAU (+8 margin, -0.2 expected, +8.2)
3. Illinois (+5 margin, -2.8 expected, +7.8)
4. Texas Tech (+4 margin, -3.7 expected, +7.7)
5. Western Michigan (+5 margin, -1.0 expected, +6.0)
6. Boston College (+6 margin, +0.4 expected, +5.6)
7. Texas (+7 margin, +1.5 expected, +5.5)
8. Kent State (+2 margin, -3.2 expected, +5.2)
9. BYU (+3 margin, -2.2 expected, +5.2)
10. Wake Forest (+2 margin, -3.0 expected, +5.0)
11. Washington (+6 margin, +1.1 expected, +5.0)
Here are the 12 teams with a turnover margin at least five turnovers worse than expected:
1. Hawaii (-12 margin, -2.8 expected, -9.2)
2. NMSU (-15 margin, -7.5 expected, -7.5)
3. Arizona State (+3 margin, +9.7 expected, -6.7)
4. USC (-7 margin, -0.5 expected, -6.5)
5. New Mexico (-10 margin, -3.5 expected, -6.5)
6. Utah State (-3 margin, +3.4 expected, -6.4)
7. West Virginia (-4 margin, +2.3 expected, -6.3)
8. Air Force (-3 margin, +2.9 expected, -5.9)
9. Rutgers (-7 margin, -1.4 expected, -5.6)
10. Oklahoma State (-7 margin, -1.4 expected, -5.6)
11. Marshall (-3 margin, +2.4 expected, -5.4)
12. UAB (-2 margin, +3.4 expected, -5.4)
Best and worst overall 2019 turnover luck
Here are the 11 teams with a turnover margin at least five turnovers better than expected. Not all of them have done well this year, but their win total has still potentially been a bit inflated.
1. SJSU (+12 margin, -0.1 expected, +12.1)
2. FAU (+8 margin, -0.2 expected, +8.2)
3. Illinois (+5 margin, -2.8 expected, +7.8)
4. Texas Tech (+4 margin, -3.7 expected, +7.7)
5. Western Michigan (+5 margin, -1.0 expected, +6.0)
6. Boston College (+6 margin, +0.4 expected, +5.6)
7. Texas (+7 margin, +1.5 expected, +5.5)
8. Kent State (+2 margin, -3.2 expected, +5.2)
9. BYU (+3 margin, -2.2 expected, +5.2)
10. Wake Forest (+2 margin, -3.0 expected, +5.0)
11. Washington (+6 margin, +1.1 expected, +5.0)
Here are the 12 teams with a turnover margin at least five turnovers worse than expected:
1. Hawaii (-12 margin, -2.8 expected, -9.2)
2. NMSU (-15 margin, -7.5 expected, -7.5)
3. Arizona State (+3 margin, +9.7 expected, -6.7)
4. USC (-7 margin, -0.5 expected, -6.5)
5. New Mexico (-10 margin, -3.5 expected, -6.5)
6. Utah State (-3 margin, +3.4 expected, -6.4)
7. West Virginia (-4 margin, +2.3 expected, -6.3)
8. Air Force (-3 margin, +2.9 expected, -5.9)
9. Rutgers (-7 margin, -1.4 expected, -5.6)
10. Oklahoma State (-7 margin, -1.4 expected, -5.6)
11. Marshall (-3 margin, +2.4 expected, -5.4)
12. UAB (-2 margin, +3.4 expected, -5.4)
