Week 8 Poession Stats (National Rankings & SOS Adjusted)

[TheRedSon]

Since a few of you showed some interest in the possession stats I generate I thought I'd show you a glimpse of the national rankings and introduce the SOS adjustments I've been working on. If anyone has any questions on how these stats are generated I'd be happy to answer them.

I'll break this down in more than one post so it may be easier to view.

Offensive Points/Possession

1. Oregon - 4.13
2. Kansas State - 3.88
3. Louisiana Tech - 3.87
4. Baylor - 3.75
5. Louisville - 3.73
6. Texas - 3.67
7. Texas Tech - 3.59
8. West Virginia - 3.54
9. Alabama - 3.36
10. Oklahoma - 3.35
11. Clemson - 3.26
12. Nevada - 3.26
13. Northern Illinois - 3.11
14. Louisiana-Monroe - 3.11
15. Mississippi State - 2.98
16. Georgia - 2.96
17. Georgia Tech - 2.95
18. Ohio - 2.94
19. San Diego State - 2.93
20. Marshall - 2.88
21. Florida State - 2.86
22. Air Force - 2.85
23. Middle Tennessee - 2.80
24. Western Kentucky - 2.79
25. Nebraska - 2.76
26. Texas A&M - 2.75
27. Oklahoma State - 2.74
28. Ball State - 2.72
29. Indiana - 2.69
30. San Jose State - 2.66

47. TCU - 2.49
103. Iowa State - 1.50
113. Kansas - 1.21

124. Hawaii - 0.87

 

[TheRedSon]

Here's the offensive points/possession adjusted by the defenses faced. It's a rather simple adjustment really. In West Virginia's case I simply find the opponents' defensive points/possession, subtract their totals from their game with West Virginia, average them and divide by total games played against FBS teams. That total is then subtracted from 3.54, WVU's offensive points/possession.

Marshall's defense - 3.08, 2.77 against everyone else
Maryland - 1.49, 1.38
Baylor - 3.86, 3.41
Texas - 2.94, 2.73
Texas Tech - 2.27, 2.47
Kansas State - 1.58, 1.67

3.54 - (2.77 + 1.38 + 3.41 + 2.73 + 2.47 + 1.67) / 6 = 1.13

So West Virginia scores 1.13 points/possession more than their opponents normally allow.

So here's the top 30 and the rest of the Big 12...

1. Oregon - 2.13
2. Kansas State - 1.81
3. Texas Tech - 1.63
4. Louisiana Tech - 1.51
5. Baylor - 1.41
6. Louisville - 1.25
7. Texas - 1.25
8. Alabama - 1.23
9. Oklahoma - 1.18
10. West Virginia - 1.13
11. Arizona - 1.10
12. Georgia - 1.08
13. Clemson - 1.06
14. Texas A&M - 1.02
15. Tennessee - 0.91
16. Nebraska - 0.80
17. Michigan - 0.69
18. Florida - 0.65
19. Nevada - 0.55
20. San Jose State - 0.55
21. Florida State - 0.54
22. Mississippi State - 0.52
23. Ole Miss - 0.50
24. Indiana - 0.50
25. Western Kentucky - 0.50
26. Syracuse - 0.47
27. Georgia Tech - 0.45
28. Notre Dame - 0.43
29. Arizona State - 0.43
30. Ohio State - 0.42

36. Oklahoma State - 0.35
65. TCU - -0.01
88. Iowa State - -0.40
104. Kansas - -0.67

I find this useful because (a) it shows clearly which teams are above or below average and (b) it makes it easier to give a team like Arizona or Notre Dame a fair shake when they've played much tougher defenses than say Louisiana-Monroe has. TCU is the first team on this list with a negative number (actually -0.006), so they basically score exactly what their opponents normally give up on average.

 

[TheRedSon]

Defensive Points/Possession

1. Alabama - 0.57
2. Oklahoma - 0.70
3. Notre Dame - 0.76
4. Oregon - 0.83
5. Boise State - 0.97
6. Florida - 1.07
7. LSU - 1.10
8. Rutgers - 1.10
9. BYU - 1.12
10. Utah State - 1.14
11. Mississippi State - 1.18
12. Penn State - 1.19
13. Michigan State - 1.20
14. South Carolina - 1.21
15. USC - 1.25
16. Cincinnati - 1.30
17. Oregon State - 1.34
18. Wisconsin - 1.40
19. Florida State - 1.42
20. UCLA - 1.45
21. Connecticut - 1.45
22. Michigan - 1.48
23. North Carolina State - 1.49
24. Maryland - 1.49
25. Stanford - 1.50
26. Fresno State - 1.51
27. Iowa - 1.54
28. Bowling Green - 1.55
29. Kansas State - 1.58
30. Ohio State - 1.62

32. Iowa State - 1.67
36. TCU - 1.79
40. Oklahoma State - 1.90
70. Texas Tech - 2.27
98. Kansas - 2.90
100. Texas - 2.94
121. West Virginia - 3.54
123. Baylor - 3.86

124. Hawaii - 3.98

 

[TheRedSon]

This is the adjusted defensive points/possession. It works the same way as the offensive one, but this time a negative number is a good thing.

1. Oklahoma - -2.33
2. Alabama - -1.74
3. Oregon - -1.39
4. Notre Dame - -1.38
5. Iowa State - -1.37
6. Michigan State - -1.23
7. Boise State - -1.13
8. Florida - -1.07
9. Fresno State - -1.01
10. Cincinnati - -1.00
11. Mississippi State - -0.96
12. LSU - -0.95
13. Stanford - -0.86
14. Florida State - -0.84
15. South Carolina - -0.83
16. Texas A&M - -0.78
17. BYU - -0.77
18. Utah State - -0.77
19. Penn State - -0.75
20. Kansas State - -0.74
21. Rutgers - -0.69
22. Oregon State - -0.69
23. Virginia Tech - -0.69
24. Ohio State - -0.65
25. Iowa - -0.63
26. Missouri - -0.61
27. Michigan - -0.60
28. UCLA - -0.60
29. North Carolina State - -0.57
30. Wisconsin - -0.55

31. Oklahoma State - -0.50
36. TCU - -0.44
37. Texas Tech - -0.44
58. Texas - -0.01
61. Kansas - 0.01
88. West Virginia - 0.38
115. Baylor - 1.18

When you adjust for how much opponent's score normally neither West Virginia nor Baylor look quite as awful (its obviously still not pretty), and overall it's puts the lie to the myth that Big 12 teams can't/don't/won't play defense.

I should point out that we are still fairly early in this season for most teams. Non Big 12 team has played 8 games yet. Cincinnati has only played four FBS opponents. These numbers and rankings are still prone to sharp changes from week-to-week. The further we get into the season the more stable they will become.

This list shows why teams like Arizona and Notre Dame ranked highly in the adjusted offensive one. All of Notre Dame's opponents so far other than Miami (FL) and Navy are in that top 30 (well, Purdue just missed it at 33).

 

[OUSooners_75]

You all may find this site helpful too...

football outsiders stats S&P

 

[TheRedSon]

Originally posted by OUSooners_75:
You all may find this site helpful too...

That is a great site.