Poll oversamples?
- Thread starter PriddyBoy
- Start date
Op2, if you play Golf, you know there is often times a fraction of an inch on a short putt that can mean the difference between par and a bogey.
The polls (virtually all of them) predicted a Hillary victory...both popular vote and in the electoral college. Many of them said Trump had "no path" to victory...as late as 3 days out.
Now you can spin that any way you want, but the bottom line is virtually all of them were wrong in terms of the final actual results vs their predictions.
Hilary did win the popular vote and by roughly the margin as predicted.
Your golf analogy is actually pretty good. If we're both 100 yards from the pin and I hit it 3 feet from the cup and you hit it 30 feet from the cup then I hit a better shot than you even if we both make our putts and finish the hole with the same score.
I honestly don't know why you so often attribute things to me that I didn't say. Have I said that Hilary really won the election? No. It's silly for you to even say.
Predicting the future is difficult. This is a common theme coming from people who aren't familiar with the math and statistics behind trying to do that. Polls are never 100% accurate, part of why they list a margin of error. Predictive algorithms are never 100% accurate either. I know because that's a big part of what I do. You can model things based on what you know about what you are predicting, but something unpredictable can make that model less accurate for some reason, then you are off. It happens.
Good lord man, we have went over this numerous times and you are wrong every time.
RCP average 11/1/2016-11/7/2016 Clinton 46.8% to Trump 43.6%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Actual Results, Clinton 48.5% Trump 46.4%
No doubt. Nothing wrong with predictions...but they should never become a substitute for results.
In politics, sports, business...doesn't matter. Results are the only polls that ultimately are accuratley measured.
During this past election cycle, we were bombarded with polls, daily... as if the election was over..."a New Wall Street Journal NBC News poll shows Hillary with a substantial lead...Trump's path to victory is even more narrow...hard to see how he can win based on this latest poll"
I got so sick of it I just turned them off whenever they started up with all of that crap!
This is a very real problem with the Left and it's policies. They like to ''predict" all sorts of good intentions from their warped ideas and they often use polling to suggest large public support for them. However they are hardly ever held accountable for their actual failures or their poor performance results.
I'd prefer three polls during an election season. An early poll, a mid way poll, and the final poll at the end of the race to measure the other 2.
That final poll is the only one that counts.
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I happen to also think this is a huge problem with all of the Global warming models that predict disaster 50 years ahead of any actual data. They are almost always wrong too, but no one in the media ever goes back and compares their "predictions" to actual results.
There is even less measured as to the overall effectiveness of any so called "remedies" to prevent or reduce whatever effect Man is supposedly having on any "climate change"
They even changed the name from "Global warming" to "climate change" because the predictive models were so off base.
I got sick of election coverage in general. That's part of the election season lasting over a year now. The polls are fine. Part of the problem with coverage of them is that most of the people rambling about them have no idea about the stats behind them. Anyone dismissing the possibility of a Trump victory out of hand is overstating the power of polling.
Unless people were outside your house with a bullhorn yelling poll results at you you weren't bombarded with anything. You have free will to read or not read any media or polls you want. If you prefer only an early poll, a midway poll and a final poll then only look at one poll early, one poll midway and one final poll.
You do nothing but read political sites and then you complain you're bombarded with political polls. Here's an idea. Read some other kinds of sites on the Internet. There are millions of them and some are pretty interesting. Believe it or not you could go an entire month doing nothing but reading the Internet and read no political sites at all and yet still learn a lot.
There is a difference between advocacy polling, which left, right and lots of interest groups do, and polling for accuracy, which people like Gallup do. The point of the former is advocacy but the point of the latter is accuracy.
Op2, I agree with what you said here, and I do exactly what you suggest. I do not pay attention to advocacy polling, and I use very little data polling to predict anything that I have no concrete results to judge it's accuracy by.
I am paid by, judged on, and believe in results. That is the only poll that matters to me. Folks who come into our Dealership, do business with us, and are polled on their experience. That's where we get our actual data, and adjust our policies dealing with our customers.
Another lemming. Have you been right about anything sugartits? I could post all day about everything you have proven you dont know.
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Not a knock on your line of work, but every dealership I've dealt with asked me to give them all perfect scores on any survey I get. Your dealership may do something different than that, but, in my experience, the dealership service polls are heavily skewed by people who are willing to comply with that request.
Yes this is arguably true, those CSI scores are important and dictate if we keep our flag. However if we screw up, you are free to rip us, and we can't force you to change your opinion of your experience with us. We try very hard to satisfy you so we can get a good score, but you ultimately get to decide how effective we were.
Is it a completely accurate poll? Probably not. If you had a very good experience with us, or if it was a very bad experience is it the closest thing to the truith we are going to find out either way?
Yes.
Car dealership? Why can't carmakers just sell their cars directly to the people? I've read that Tesla is running into grief on that. They want to sell directly the the people and in some states they're not allowed to do so. I get the impression that in those states the car dealerships are getting legislatures to pass laws that prevent the carmakers from bypassing the car dealerships and selling directly to the people.
It's not as simple as that Op2. Dealerships are competing against private or independent resellers, auctioneers, rental car agencies, brokers, and auto lease operations for the same customers...in many cases against sellers not even licensed in their home States!
In our particular case, all we have to offer is a superior customer service or shopping experience, as well as our expertise being an exclusive Blue Oval certified Ford dealership. Our ability to service your vehicle & protect your warranty with OEM certified replacement parts, offer you Ford certified accessories, and give you exlcusive attention due to our connection to Ford's proprietary network of other certified Dealers who have the exact specifications, warranty knowledge and equipment required to maintain your investment is our customer service advantage.
However we still have to compete with those others who are also offering their advantages...namely price. The internet is altering how the consumer shopping experience is defined. Our exclusivity is being challenged by aftermarket service providers who can duplicate and in some cases exceed our customer's desires or needs.
Tesla is another operation that is competing, however they are limited in both their distribution networks for parts & service, as well as Dealership networks for sales. Things evolve, and in time Tesla will be a player as long as they continue to offer a product that is both economically viable for today's consumers, as well as operationally feasible for Dealers. I can't answer your questions about their restrictions on direct sales, but I know in our State, in order to maintain a sales & service Dealership, you must be licensed.
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