Originally posted by TheRedSon:
Originally posted by mountaineer fan:
Thanks for the post. Do you have the ability to tell us how Kansas St., Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech's points per possession in the games against WVU stack up to their other games? Given we are only half way through the season, are those teams so highly ranked in part because of our poor defense?
Baylor, 3.75 points/possession, #4 nationally
vs. SMU (#63, 2.18 points/possession allowed) - 3.80/possession (10 possessions, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Louisiana-Monroe (#73, 2.32) - 4.00 (12, 6 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 4.50 (14, 9 TD's)
vs. TCU (#36, 1.79) - 2.33 (9, 3 TD's)
@ Texas (#100, 2.94) - 3.64 (14, 6 TD's, 3 FG's)
So Baylor's best offensive showing was against West Virginia, but with the exception of the TCU game (4 TO's in those 9 possessions) they played exceptionally well anyway. If they had scored 3.64 in all five games, as they did against Texas, they would still rank #9 nationally. I would also point out that against SMU they started sluggish and never played with what I'd consider 100% effort. I was at that game. In the ULM game took a two score lead into or early in the fourth quarter and played a little keep away, as much as they ever do anyway. They could have scored once more probably. Against your team they needed every bit of that effort just to keep it close.
Texas, 3.67 p/p, #8 nationally
vs. Wyoming (#104, 3.08) - 3.80 (10, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 5.67 (6, 4 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ Ole Miss (#55, 2.07) - 5.00 (9, 6 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Oklahoma State (#40, 1.90) - 3.50 (10, 5 TD's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 3.45 (11, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 0.00 (8, nothing)
vs. Baylor (#123, 3.86) - 4.31 (13, 8 TD's)
West Virginia actually held Texas to it's second lowest points/possession this season. They did miss a field goal that might have changed things late after snapping the ball over Ash's head. Had they made that they may have scored 3.7/possession. I think there were three key differences between West Virginia's win over Texas and OSU's loss. (1) The botched snap, (2) West Virginia stopped Texas on 4th down twice and they were 5-5 against OSU, (3) Texas scored a TD in the kicking game in Stillwater.
Texas Tech, 3.59 p/p, #9 nationally
@ Texas State (#94, 2.79) - 5.17 (6, 4 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 6.00 (7, 6 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.00 (12, 3 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 1.63 (8, 1 TD, 2 FG's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 5.00 (7, 5 TD's)
@ TCU (#36, 1.79) - 3.50 (16, 8 TD's)
Obviously their performance against West Virginia is part of why Tech's numbers are so high. They were better against Texas State and New Mexico if that makes you feel better, and they were very good against a decent TCU defense.
Kansas State, 3.88 p/p, #2 nationally
vs. Miami (FL)(#93, 2.76) - 4.75 (8, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. North Texas (#75, 2.36) - 3.50 (8, 4 TD's)
@ Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 2.13 (8, 2 TD's 1 FG)
vs. Kansas (#98, 2.90) - 4.90 (10, 7 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.70 (10, 3 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 6.20 (5, 4 TD's, 1 FG)
Well there's no good way to spin that. They'd be in the top ten regardless, they have been all year. Part of the reason that number is so huge is because this game went into garbage time so quickly though. Since you scored in the kicking game your offense only had 3 possessions before this was over. Maybe you get a stop somewhere to knock it down into the 5's if the second half had mattered. I will say Snyder goes into complete vanilla mode against the cupcakes on his schedule. They could have put up 5.00 or better against North Texas and Kansas any time they really wanted to.
To summarize, I guess the answer is both "yes" and "no." Texas certainly isn't as high as they are because they played West Virginia. They've played three other awful defenses as well, and scored better against decent defenses on the road at Ole Miss and OSU than they did against West Virginia. Baylor's high mark is against West Virginia, but they're top ten without that game still, and it's not that much higher than two other games. Tech scored more against New Mexico and Texas State than on West Virginia, but since Iowa State and OU both stalled their offense I think it's fair to say they needed the West Virginia game to be in the top ten. Kansas State was at 3.61 before they played West Virginia, that would still be 9th best in the country this week, but they're at #2 instead because of that game in Morgantown.
Here's the remaining offenses on your schedule...
TCU - #47, 2.49
Oklahoma State - #27, 2.74
Oklahoma - #10, 3.35
Iowa State - #103, 1.50
Kansas - #113, 1.21
TCU's got fast receivers, a decent stable of backs that they rotate and a mobile quarterback that can make the deep throw, but he's inexperienced and has made mistakes. He also may have been injured in that Tech game.
OSU is all kinds of banged up. Hopefully Wes Lunt will finally be ready to play again this week or next though (or not hopefully in your opinion I guess). If Lunt can't go still Clint Chelf, the third string QB, will be the guy. The receiving corps is banged up a lot, but still has some playmakers. They just won't be able to rotate much. OSU is missing it's 2nd RB who usually gets 30-35% of the carries and is all conference caliber if he was on a different team. So far Randle's responded to nearly 100% of the load by being as awesome as ever, but that could change. I think OSU's offensive line will give West Virginia fits though, and if they can the rest of that might not matter much as far as how good a day your defense has.
Oklahoma has all kinds of weapons and a great quarterback... if he's not pressured. Pressure Jones and he folds like a cheap suit. Don't, he'll carve you up like a Thanksgiving turkey. They like to use Blake Bell at QB in short yardage situations in a jumbo package. Think Klien with less speed and no green light to throw the ball.
Iowa State has mobile quarterbacks and does a decent job in the running game. Put scoreboard pressure on them and force them to throw and their offense becomes incredibly inconsistent though.
Kansas sucks. They'll throw the kitchen sink at you, but it's Frodo Baggins' kitchen sink.