HIRE OR FIRE - PT. 4 & LAST

[WVex-pat in GA]

Not a poll, more of a blind taste test. Hire or Fire?

This coach has a .622 winning percentage as a head coach.

This coach has a .500 winning percentage in Bowl Games.

This coach has 2 Conference Championships, but no National Championships even though his team has been in contention.

This coach’s team has an average National Poll year-end ranking of 14th over the years the team has been ranked.

In this coach’s best season the team only had 1 loss, but his career average is 7 wins per season.

DO YOU HIRE OR FIRE?

 

[bamaEER]

Sounds like Nehlen, although his bowl record certainly wasn't .500. Depends on the conference this took place in.

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

So, based on the record, Hire or Fire?

 

[bamaEER]

Sounds like Nehlen, although his bowl record certainly wasn't .500. Depends on the conference this took place in.

If you are a 2-10 team looking for someone to get you off the bottom, then you hire. If you are perennial league contender in a power 5 conference, then you drop him like a stone.

 

[Low Mountains Drifter]

Nehlen is also pushing 80 and hasn't coached in 15 years, so I doubt it's him. I can't find a coach with that exact winning percentage and the rest of the info doesn't lead to an obvious deduction like the others.

In addition to where he was coaching, I would need to know how long. That could be very impressive if, say the coach took over a struggling program and put up those numbers in 5-6 years, to very unimpressive if he took over a strong program and did that over 10 with the best years coming when he was still benefiting from the strength of the program he inherited.

For most coaches trends are going to be at least as important as raw numbers.

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/coaches/charlie-strong-1.html

 

[Low Mountains Drifter]

His struggling at Texas is disturbing. We can't afford a decline . Texas can and will regain its position either with Strong or someone else. We don't have the name or resources to absorb a further decline and still have the ability to bounce back the way a UT can.

Pass. He may prove in the long run to be very successful (and he obviously did a good job at L'ville) but, no. I watched the UT-ISU game and while the QB issue there is maybe even worse than what we have, I also thought UT gave up in that game. That's on the coach.

Also, we're very likely to have QB issues again next year (and a worse D than Texas has now) so a coach who can't find a way to get it done without a good QB is probably not what we need.

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

I posted these more to bring a sense of reality to the coaching discussion (if that is possible on this board). I'm hoping we don't need to make a coaching change.

But when posts are started to promote Richt, Tressel, and RR (God forbid) it makes sense to look at some of the stats in a blind manner and take the personalities out of the equation. Strong was a wild card.

Unfortunately, the champions of the coaching changes either didn't want to pay attention (ostrich moves) or realized they were in over their heads in making coaching decisions (likely as well).

So, LMD, thanks for taking the time to consider.

 

[bamaEER]

I posted these more to bring a sense of reality to the coaching discussion (if that is possible on this board). I'm hoping we don't need to make a coaching change.

But when posts are started to promote Richt, Tressel, and RR (God forbid) it makes sense to look at some of the stats in a blind manner and take the personalities out of the equation. Strong was a wild card.

Unfortunately, the champions of the coaching changes either didn't want to pay attention (ostrich moves) or realized they were in over their heads in making coaching decisions (likely as well).

So, LMD, thanks for taking the time to consider.

Understood. Also worth mentioning that when we are 3-4, the quality of thought on this board declines dramatically. We lose another game and I guarantee there will be posts about Terry Bowden buying property on Cheat Lake.

 

[Low Mountains Drifter]

I am in favor of a change unless we see a dramatic improvement rest of the season. Only at 8-4 would he be safe were I in charge. 7-5 would have to be a very good looking 7-5. Worse than that, without hesitation, we need to move on.

The fear of hiring a worse coach is overrated. Even if one very charitably considered Holgorsen a perfectly average one, there would only be a 50% chance of hiring one worse, and assuming a normal distribution, less than a 25% chance of hiring one significantly worse (the same 25% would apply to significantly better if you think he is perfectly average -- at the median).

That means a change brings a 75% chance of roughly equal or better and only a 25% risk of significantly worse.

I don't think he's even average, or particularly close to it.

 

[VaultHunter]

Strong is trying to build his type of program plus learn how to be a head coach in the Big 12.

Ring a bell?

 

[AirForceer]

Understood. Also worth mentioning that when we are 3-4, the quality of thought on this board declines dramatically. We lose another game and I guarantee there will be posts about Terry Bowden buying property on Cheat Lake.

Haha, I remember the battle on the boards for Doc or Terry

 

[Low Mountains Drifter]

Wanna bet Strong doesn't get 5 years to learn how to be a coach at Texas?

One can earn a Ph.D in physics from Cal Tech in 3 years. I'm going out on a limb and saying coaching ball does not require learning as much new and difficult stuff.