Forde-Yard Dash: Making the case for (and arguing against) each playoff hopeful not named Alabama
Pat Forde,Yahoo Sports 9 hours ago
Forde Yard Dash - Ranking the "good" losses
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (fire extinguishers sold separately at Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights lost by 49 points to a 2-7 team Saturday):
THE CURSE OF NO. 4 – IS THIS 2007 SQUARED?
Two weeks, two losses for teams ranked fourth by the College Football Playoff selection committee. First it was Texas A&M (1), defrocked by Mississippi State (which went back to being Mississippi State immediately thereafter, losing 51-3 to Alabama). Then it was Washington (2), which was outplayed in about every way possible at home by USC on Saturday (Jake Browning Heisman Trophy T-shirts have been moved to the discount aisle).
The new CFP rankings don’t come out until Tuesday night – but the current No. 4 in the AP poll is Michigan (3), and the Wolverines reportedly have lost starting quarterback Wilton Speight (4) for the rest of the regular season with a broken collarbone suffered in the shocking loss to Iowa. That could leave Michigan vulnerable against an Indiana team that hasn’t been very good this year, but also hasn’t been an easy out.
Long story short: Don’t be ranked fourth in 2016. It’s a risky place to be.
This all brings to mind the 2007 season – also known as The Year College Football Drank Four Loko and Went Insane (5) – and the curse of No. 2. In a nine-week stretch during that season, the No. 2 team in the AP Top 25 lost seven times. The golden ticket to what was then the BCS title game, matching the top two teams in the BCS formula, was squandered repeatedly. That included losses by impostors like California, South Florida, Boston College and Kansas. (Yes, kids, Kansas was once something other than apocalyptically terrible at football. It was brief.)
POLI-TICKING TIME BOMB
Elections are mercifully over, but the politicking is not. College football has just entered into the height of Lobby Season, when schools and fans of those schools do their best to make their record appear better than it really is.
Undefeated, top-ranked and thus far bulletproof Alabama has no need for lobbying. Yet. Everyone else does, and The Dash has a compendium of arguments for 10 teams trying to make the College Football Playoff (with fact checks included):
Ohio State (6): We won in Norman and Madison. Can anyone else match those two road victories?
Fact check: Good wins, to be sure. Tough to argue against that claim. But keep in mind that one was against a persistently overrated team and the other was an overtime escape in a game the Buckeyes led for just six minutes and 15 seconds of game clock.
Did you see what we did to Nebraska? We beat the No. 10 team in the country 62-3.
Fact check: Nebraska is currently 30th in the Sagarin Ratings, so forget that No. 10 talk.
Our loss, on a blocked field goal return at Penn State at night, looks better every week.
Fact check: Still a loss.
Validity of playoff claim: Largely factual.
Would missing out on the Big Ten title game exclude Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes from the playoff? (Getty)
Michigan: We dominated Penn State and Colorado, and we beat Wisconsin. Look where they are now.
Fact check: All ranked in the top 15. Job well done. But let’s keep in mind that injury-riddled Penn State had defenders on the field at that time who might be better suited for the Patriot League. And all those games were in the comfort of the Big House.
We won a road game by 78 points.
Fact check: At Rutgers. Doesn’t count.
We were a bad facemask penalty away from getting out of Iowa City with a win Saturday night.
Fact check: What were you doing in a life-and-death struggle in Iowa City? The Hawkeyes are not good.
Don’t downgrade us without Speight. John O’Korn (7) will be our Cardale Jones, stepping in at season’s end and leading us to glory. He got a lot of experience at Houston before transferring to Michigan.
Fact check: The last important pass O’Korn threw was Oct. 2, 2014, in a 17-12 loss to Central Florida. It was intercepted – his eighth that season. He was benched thereafter and replaced by Greg Ward, who remains Houston’s quarterback to this day.
Validity of playoff claim: Has merit but ventures into wishful thinking after Speight injury.
Clemson (8): People criticize us for close games, but the five teams we have beaten by one score or less are a combined 36-13. That’s pretty good competition.
Fact check: Most of it has been. But North Carolina State is 5-5 and Troy is in the Sun Belt, so slow your roll. And then there’s the loss to 6-4 Pittsburgh.
The Pitt loss was unfortunate, but it came at the last second, by a point. You can’t win every close game.
Fact check: Why are you playing so many of them? Especially at home? Your stadium has become (Sudden) Death Valley.
Louisville shouldn’t be ahead of us in the polls. We beat the Cardinals head-to-head.
Fact check: Head-to-head results should matter, and they do. The committee likely will still have you ahead of Louisville come Tuesday night. Just hope the committee doesn’t look at what the line would be for a rematch on a neutral field.
Validity of playoff claim: Clemson is wildly fortunate that its prime competition to get in the bracket is a team it beat, however barely.
Louisville (9). We have the best loss in America.
Fact check: A supportable argument – stalling out in the red zone down six at Clemson in the final minute is no shame. However, let’s talk about quality wins. Where are those?
That 43-point beatdown of Florida State should count triple.
Fact check: It was an amazing performance, actually a bigger whipping than the score indicates. But it doesn’t count triple, or even double. The rest of the schedule has been light.
America wants to see the electrifying Lamar Jackson in the playoff. Think of the ratings.
Fact check: Lamar Jackson isn’t going to be a Nielsen magic bullet, single-handedly overcoming the ineptitude of scheduling the semifinals on New Year’s Eve for the second straight year. And think of the establishment backlash if the committee admitted it took Louisville for TV ratings.
Validity of playoff claim: Almost convincing, but still needs a little help.
Lamar Jackson Heisman Hype Video
Lamar Jackson has vaulted himself into Heisman contention by racking up historic offensive numbers. Campus Insiders gets Louisville fans ready for the home stretch with a hype video showcasing what makes Jackson so special.
Washington: If we win the conference, we should be in at 12-1 – that’s 10 league games, and no other conference plays that many. The committee cannot exclude the Pac-12 (10) two straight years without opening itself up to legitimate claims of East Coast Bias.
Fact check: This has nothing to do with bias and everything to do with schedule – you Huskies played Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State out of conference. Nobody else has had it that easy, and those 10 league games are in an underwhelming conference.
Losing to USC is no shame. That is a far better team now than it was in September, when the Trojans were playing the wrong quarterback.
Fact check: That is true. But it would help to be competitive at home, and you really weren’t.
East Coast Bias!
Fact check: You already said that.
Validity of playoff claim: The Huskies need help, because they lose the comparison to most one-loss teams.
Wisconsin (11): We’ve got two losses because we’ve played the toughest schedule in the country, and perhaps the toughest schedule known to man.
Fact check: Hannibal actually played a tougher schedule in 2nd century BC, with road games all over southern Europe. In more modern terms, Sagarin rates your schedule 11th hardest, behind four SEC West teams among others. And two losses are still twice as many as the teams above you on this list.
We beat one of those SEC West teams in the season opener. Does LSU ring a bell?
Fact check: It does. But the Tigers were still mired in the Les Miles playbook at the time. Does the Mad Hatter ring a bell?
If we avenge one of our two losses in the Big Ten championship game on a neutral field, our résumé would be as good as anyone not named Alabama.
Fact check: You might have a point. But for now that remains undone, and those two losses remain on the permanent record.
Validity of playoff claim: On the outside looking in, but not without a path to get there.
Penn State (12): Nobody is hotter than we are, baby!
Fact check: Alabama is hotter, baby. And being hot now does not erase that Pittsburgh loss.
But now Pitt has beaten Clemson, too. And we were ridiculously injured against Michigan, hence the 39-point loss.
Fact check: Most of those injuries were on defense; what explains the 10 points on offense? Besides, everyone has injuries, but nobody else under playoff consideration has a 39-point loss on the résumé.
If we get through the Big Ten East and win the league championship game, we cannot be denied a place in the playoff.
Fact check: If Clemson, Ohio State, Louisville and Washington all have one loss, and Alabama is 13-0, you may well be denied.
Validity of playoff claim: Dubious at this point, although coupling a Big Ten title with being the only team to beat the Buckeyes would carry weight.
West Virginia (13): If our name were Texas and we were 8-1, we’d be in the bracket right now.
Fact check: Oh, please. Your one defeat was by 17 points to Oklahoma State; nobody is in the bracket with that loss on the résumé.
It’s not our fault that the rest of the Big 12 is down, or that Missouri is terrible or BYU is mediocre. We tried to play a good schedule and it just didn’t work out.
Fact check: No, not your fault. But there are no sympathy points awarded by the committee for unlucky scheduling. Scheduling intent is less important than scheduling reality.
We play a nine-game league schedule, unlike those weenies in the SEC and ACC.
Fact check: That nine-game schedule includes Iowa State and Kansas, two mid-majors masquerading in Power Five clothing.
Validity of playoff claim: None at the moment. Must win out, need a Louisville loss and may need more carnage in the Pac-12 and/or Big Ten.
Oklahoma (14): Nobody is playing better than we are.
Fact check: Nobody is playing in a weaker Power Five league than you are.
Since the Big 12 went to nine conference games, nobody has ever gone undefeated. What if we do it? How can we be denied?
Fact check: By losing to Houston and Ohio State by a combined 31 points, that’s how.
But we’re Oklahoma.
Fact check: That apparently is a compelling argument to some. Not sure why.
Validity of playoff claim: Would need more mayhem to be taken remotely seriously. A lot more.
Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma pour it on against Baylor
Baker Mayfield passed for 300 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score to help No. 9 Oklahoma defeat No. 25 Baylor 45-24.
Western Michigan (15): Row the boat! We’re undefeated!
Fact check: Absolutely true. And?
That should get us into consideration.
Fact check: It should get you into the Cotton Bowl. Don’t get greedy beyond that.
Validity of playoff claim: None. Nice season, though.
ONE PLAY AWAY …
If things don’t work out for the one-loss gang, some of them can boil it down to a single moment that will live in infamy. The Dash fully acknowledges the football bromide that games are not won or lost on one play – but for the sake of brevity, we’re boiling big losses down to exactly that:
Louisville-Clemson (16). The longest yard. Down six points and facing a fourth-and-7 at the Clemson 9 that became a fourth-and-12 from the 14 after a false start, Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson fired a pass to James Quick in the left flat. Quick turned upfield, but instead of lowering his head for the first down (or going airborne), Quick rather quickly and meekly was bumped out of bounds at the Clemson 3. Possession went over on downs to Clemson with 33 seconds let. Game over. For want of a yard and a first down, or three and a touchdown, that’s the difference between one team potentially being in the playoff and one being out.
Ohio State-Penn State (17). The rushed kick. With less than five minutes remaining and the Buckeyes leading 21-17, Urban Meyer sent out his field goal unit for a 45-yard kick. But he sent it out tardily, after dithering over whether to punt or go for the first down instead. That indecision left Ohio State rushing to get set, and Tyler Durbin’s kick was blocked and returned for a stunning score that won the game and altered the Big Ten East. The biggest brain lock was this: Meyer was sitting on two timeouts, and could have used one to give his team a chance to get properly set.
Michigan-Iowa (18). The safety that started a comeback. The Wolverines were leading 10-0 late in the second quarter – not dominating the way they had almost all season, but still in control of the game. Backed up on their own 2, Michigan handed off to De’Veon Smith in the I-formation in the end zone. Iowa defensive lineman Jaleel Johnson broke through and nailed Smith for a safety. From that point on, Michigan’s offense was just about useless – the Wolverines’ next four possessions netted 11 total yards, and that 10-0 lead became an 11-10 deficit. They scraped together just one more productive drive to re-take the lead at 13-11, but then surrendered a field goal drive at the end for a stunning loss.
Clemson-Pittsburgh (19). Fourth-down folly. With a minute left and facing a fourth-and-1 at the Pitt 35, clinging to a 42-40 lead, Dabo Swinney went for the first down instead of punting the Panthers into a hole. Running back Wayne Gallman didn’t get the first down. With just one timeout remaining, Pitt was able to move 34 yards into position for the winning field goal with six seconds left. If the Panthers had been forced to go another 15-20 yards, they might not have had the time or ability.
THE CHAOS CREATORS
Teams that could detonate the playoff structure if they wind up winning their conferences:
The team that lost to an FCS opponent: Washington State (20). The Cougars opened the year being upset by Eastern Washington, 45-42. While the greatest error might have been scheduling an FCS power that is now 9-1, Washington State compounded it by being outplayed in the second half – Eastern Washington led for the final 28 minutes, and rolled up 606 yards of offense. If Wazzu (now 8-2) wins the Pac-12 North and then takes the conference championship, is there any way the committee can invite a team that couldn’t beat an FCS opponent?
The three-loss conference champion: Tennessee (21) could be that team if the Volunteers win the East and shock the world (and Alabama) in the SEC title game; Virginia Tech (22) could do the same if it beats Virginia on Nov. 26, then upsets either Clemson or Louisville in the ACC title game; or red-hot USC (23) could be that team in the Pac-12.
If more than one of the above four teams wins a league, the committee will have some crazy scenarios to consider. So crazy that the Big 12 might even be able to backdoor its way into this thing.
GAMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL KINDA-SORTA IMPACT THE PLAYOFF
There isn’t much in terms of high-powered matchups – but the quiet weeks are often the ones that provide the biggest upheaval, as Nov. 12 proved. While keeping an eye out for a seismic shocker, here are four games of import:
Louisville-Houston (24). This Thursday night game in H-Town lost significant luster when the Cougars were defeated by Navy and SMU in a span of three weeks in October. But it’s still a huge spot for the Cardinals, who can add a quality road win while potentially putting on a show for the committee. During Bobby Petrino’s nine-minute news conference Monday, The Dash asked about the opportunity to take center stage for a night.
“Obviously we know it’s on national TV, nobody else is playing, everybody will be watching it,” Petrino said. “Those are the type of games we like, something that is fun as a team, something that we feel like has always helped us in recruiting, and we are used to playing mid-week games.”
The matchup of Lamar Jackson against Greg Ward is a tantalizing one, but Houston has to find a way to reignite its offense. The Cougars averaged 505 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play their first seven games, and 332 and 4.4 in the last three.
Dash prediction: Louisville 34, Houston 21.
Florida-LSU (25). The Relocation Bowl, to be played in Baton Rouge instead of previously scheduled Gainesville, will go a long way toward deciding who wins the SEC East. The Gators can clinch the division with a victory, while a loss would clear the way for Tennessee if the Volunteers can beat Missouri and Vanderbilt. (If they can’t, shame on ‘em.) This will not resemble a Big 12 game in terms of tempo – these teams average the fewest offensive snaps per game in the SEC, Florida at 69 and LSU at just 60.
Dash prediction: LSU 17, Florida 10.
Wazzu-Colorado (26). Neither program has won anything of note in a decade or more, but both have the chance to win their respective Pac-12 divisions. In fact, the winner of this game clinches at least a share of a divisional title, possibly more. The Buffaloes have the league’s No. 1 defense and the Cougars have the No. 2 offense, but reportedly will be missing receiver River Cracraft after he suffered a season-ending knee injury Saturday.
Dash prediction: Colorado 31, Washington State 28.
Oklahoma-West Virginia (27). Does it really matter from a playoff perspective? Probably not, but at least after this game the Big 12 will know which team to promote as its best shot. The Mountaineers are 0-4 against the Sooners since joining the conference, but they’ve also won six straight Big 12 home games.
Dash prediction: West Virginia 38, Oklahoma 37.
LOW TURNOVER NUMBERS – HOW RELIABLE IS YOUR QB?
This won’t qualify as breaking news, but looking at turnover margins in recent years underscores the importance of a smart and reliable quarterback when it comes to minimizing mistakes. Check out the national leaders in fewest turnovers, and see what they have in common:
Western Michigan is on pace to break the record for fewest turnovers in a season, with just four in 10 games. Senior QB Zach Terrell (28) has done his part, throwing just one interception in 256 pass attempts. The only two QBs in the last nine seasons with one interception in more attempts are North Carolina State’s Russell Wilson in 2008 (one in 275 throws) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw in 2013 (one in 284).
Zach Terrell has Western Michigan undefeated and closing in on a New Year’s Six bowl game. (Getty)
The record Western Michigan is trying to break for fewest turnovers in a season belongs to Navy, and it was set last year with eight. That was largely due to the great Keenan Reynolds (29), whose ball handling in the Midshipmen’s option offense was impeccable.
In 2014, the team with the fewest turnovers was Oregon, with 11 in 15 games. The man leading that offense: Heisman Trophy-winning QB Marcus Mariota (30).
And in 2013, the co-leader in fewest turnovers was Louisville, behind Teddy Bridgewater (31). The Cardinals were tied with Reynolds-led Navy that season, with 10 turnovers apiece in 13 games.
COACHING COMEBACKS
Four coaches who were hearing it from fans and media earlier this season, but aren’t now after reversing fortunes.
James Franklin (32), Penn State. When the Nittany Lions were 2-2, athletic director Sandy Barbour was compelled to say that her coach “was not on any hot seat.” Six consecutive victories later, he’s closer to Big Ten Coach of the Year than a guy on the hot seat.
Clay Helton (33), USC. He lost four of his first five games after being named the full-time coach late last season. Among those losses was a 52-6 wipeout to open this year against Alabama – the Trojans’ worst loss in 50 years. That cranked up criticism of a questionable hire, but USC has clicked off six straight wins highlighted by that big win at Washington on Saturday. If Helton had gone with redshirt freshman Sam Darnold to start the season instead of junior Max Browne, USC might be in the playoff chase.
Chuck Martin (34), Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks started the year 0-6, dropping Martin’s record to 5-25 at the school. Since then they have won five straight, with the last four by double digits. This is another case of a quarterback change making a massive difference – Martin went to sophomore Gus Ragland at 0-6, and the sophomore has produced 12 touchdown passes and zero interceptions during this five-game winning streak. Ragland now is 143 passes into his college career without having thrown a pick.
And after shocking Michigan, maybe Kirk Ferentz (35) of Iowa will get 10 more years on his deal. The man with the golden contract had a few critics after a 5-4 start with a lot of returning talent from last year’s Big Ten West champion team, but taking out a top-five team is a reminder that Ferentz is Coach For Life in Iowa City.
COACHING FADES
They were being lauded earlier in the season. Not so much now.
Kevin Sumlin (36), Texas A&M. There he goes again. The Aggies were noted for fast starts and ugly flameouts the previous two seasons: They were 5-0 in 2014 and then lost five of their last seven; they were 5-0 in 2015 and lost four of their last seven. This season A&M started 6-0 and since has lost three of four. Being beaten by Alabama in Tuscaloosa is one thing; losing handily at Mississippi State and at home to Mississippi is something else entirely. Ending up 8-5 for the third straight year is both conceivable and undesirable.
Mark Richt (37), Miami. Hurricanes fans were giddy after a 4-0 start against light competition. They were less giddy when the record was 4-4. But now the pendulum has swung back the other way again, with consecutive big wins over Pittsburgh (by 23) and Virginia (by 20). If Miami finishes with wins over North Carolina State and Duke to complete three separate four-game streaks, fans of The U likely would take it as a building block toward someday returning to prominence.
COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK
Tom Arth (38), John Carroll. This, of course, presumes that Arth has a comp car. If not, he should have one now, because on Saturday his Blue Streaks broke Mount Union’s NCAA-record, 112-game regular-season winning streak with a 31-28 triumph. That gives the school near Cleveland the Ohio Athletic Conference title and sends the Streaks to the NCAA Division III playoffs.
COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK
Todd Graham (39), Arizona State. With the Sun Devils’ 49-26 home mauling from Utah, Graham has made some dubious history. This was the first time since 1942 that ASU has lost four conference games by 19 or more points. The conference then: the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association. The four teams that inflicted the damage: West Texas A&M, Arizona, UTEP and New Mexico. This time: USC, Colorado, Oregon, Utah.
At 2-5 in the Pac-12, Arizona State is suffering system failure. The Sun Devils surrendered 11 sacks against Utah and 22 tackles for loss. In one game. The Devils have allowed 33 sacks on the season, which is tied for 121st nationally and tied (with South Carolina) for most allowed by a Power Five team.
But the other side of the ball is probably worse: ASU is 124th nationally in total defense and 126th in yards allowed per play.
POINT AFTER
When following #MACtion to Muncie and feeling thirsty, The Dash recommends a remarkable Midwestern oasis: Thr3e Wise Men Brewing Co. (40). It is located within a nice, modern Courtyard Marriott at the downtown convention center, and the beers will not disappoint. Have a Centennial Martyr Double IPA and thank The Dash later.
Link: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/f...yoff-hopeful-not-named-alabama-051954341.html
Pat Forde,Yahoo Sports 9 hours ago
Forde Yard Dash - Ranking the "good" losses
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (fire extinguishers sold separately at Rutgers, where the Scarlet Knights lost by 49 points to a 2-7 team Saturday):
THE CURSE OF NO. 4 – IS THIS 2007 SQUARED?
Two weeks, two losses for teams ranked fourth by the College Football Playoff selection committee. First it was Texas A&M (1), defrocked by Mississippi State (which went back to being Mississippi State immediately thereafter, losing 51-3 to Alabama). Then it was Washington (2), which was outplayed in about every way possible at home by USC on Saturday (Jake Browning Heisman Trophy T-shirts have been moved to the discount aisle).
The new CFP rankings don’t come out until Tuesday night – but the current No. 4 in the AP poll is Michigan (3), and the Wolverines reportedly have lost starting quarterback Wilton Speight (4) for the rest of the regular season with a broken collarbone suffered in the shocking loss to Iowa. That could leave Michigan vulnerable against an Indiana team that hasn’t been very good this year, but also hasn’t been an easy out.
Long story short: Don’t be ranked fourth in 2016. It’s a risky place to be.
This all brings to mind the 2007 season – also known as The Year College Football Drank Four Loko and Went Insane (5) – and the curse of No. 2. In a nine-week stretch during that season, the No. 2 team in the AP Top 25 lost seven times. The golden ticket to what was then the BCS title game, matching the top two teams in the BCS formula, was squandered repeatedly. That included losses by impostors like California, South Florida, Boston College and Kansas. (Yes, kids, Kansas was once something other than apocalyptically terrible at football. It was brief.)
POLI-TICKING TIME BOMB
Elections are mercifully over, but the politicking is not. College football has just entered into the height of Lobby Season, when schools and fans of those schools do their best to make their record appear better than it really is.
Undefeated, top-ranked and thus far bulletproof Alabama has no need for lobbying. Yet. Everyone else does, and The Dash has a compendium of arguments for 10 teams trying to make the College Football Playoff (with fact checks included):
Ohio State (6): We won in Norman and Madison. Can anyone else match those two road victories?
Fact check: Good wins, to be sure. Tough to argue against that claim. But keep in mind that one was against a persistently overrated team and the other was an overtime escape in a game the Buckeyes led for just six minutes and 15 seconds of game clock.
Did you see what we did to Nebraska? We beat the No. 10 team in the country 62-3.
Fact check: Nebraska is currently 30th in the Sagarin Ratings, so forget that No. 10 talk.
Our loss, on a blocked field goal return at Penn State at night, looks better every week.
Fact check: Still a loss.
Validity of playoff claim: Largely factual.
Would missing out on the Big Ten title game exclude Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes from the playoff? (Getty)
Michigan: We dominated Penn State and Colorado, and we beat Wisconsin. Look where they are now.
Fact check: All ranked in the top 15. Job well done. But let’s keep in mind that injury-riddled Penn State had defenders on the field at that time who might be better suited for the Patriot League. And all those games were in the comfort of the Big House.
We won a road game by 78 points.
Fact check: At Rutgers. Doesn’t count.
We were a bad facemask penalty away from getting out of Iowa City with a win Saturday night.
Fact check: What were you doing in a life-and-death struggle in Iowa City? The Hawkeyes are not good.
Don’t downgrade us without Speight. John O’Korn (7) will be our Cardale Jones, stepping in at season’s end and leading us to glory. He got a lot of experience at Houston before transferring to Michigan.
Fact check: The last important pass O’Korn threw was Oct. 2, 2014, in a 17-12 loss to Central Florida. It was intercepted – his eighth that season. He was benched thereafter and replaced by Greg Ward, who remains Houston’s quarterback to this day.
Validity of playoff claim: Has merit but ventures into wishful thinking after Speight injury.
Clemson (8): People criticize us for close games, but the five teams we have beaten by one score or less are a combined 36-13. That’s pretty good competition.
Fact check: Most of it has been. But North Carolina State is 5-5 and Troy is in the Sun Belt, so slow your roll. And then there’s the loss to 6-4 Pittsburgh.
The Pitt loss was unfortunate, but it came at the last second, by a point. You can’t win every close game.
Fact check: Why are you playing so many of them? Especially at home? Your stadium has become (Sudden) Death Valley.
Louisville shouldn’t be ahead of us in the polls. We beat the Cardinals head-to-head.
Fact check: Head-to-head results should matter, and they do. The committee likely will still have you ahead of Louisville come Tuesday night. Just hope the committee doesn’t look at what the line would be for a rematch on a neutral field.
Validity of playoff claim: Clemson is wildly fortunate that its prime competition to get in the bracket is a team it beat, however barely.
Louisville (9). We have the best loss in America.
Fact check: A supportable argument – stalling out in the red zone down six at Clemson in the final minute is no shame. However, let’s talk about quality wins. Where are those?
That 43-point beatdown of Florida State should count triple.
Fact check: It was an amazing performance, actually a bigger whipping than the score indicates. But it doesn’t count triple, or even double. The rest of the schedule has been light.
America wants to see the electrifying Lamar Jackson in the playoff. Think of the ratings.
Fact check: Lamar Jackson isn’t going to be a Nielsen magic bullet, single-handedly overcoming the ineptitude of scheduling the semifinals on New Year’s Eve for the second straight year. And think of the establishment backlash if the committee admitted it took Louisville for TV ratings.
Validity of playoff claim: Almost convincing, but still needs a little help.
Lamar Jackson Heisman Hype Video
Lamar Jackson has vaulted himself into Heisman contention by racking up historic offensive numbers. Campus Insiders gets Louisville fans ready for the home stretch with a hype video showcasing what makes Jackson so special.
Washington: If we win the conference, we should be in at 12-1 – that’s 10 league games, and no other conference plays that many. The committee cannot exclude the Pac-12 (10) two straight years without opening itself up to legitimate claims of East Coast Bias.
Fact check: This has nothing to do with bias and everything to do with schedule – you Huskies played Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State out of conference. Nobody else has had it that easy, and those 10 league games are in an underwhelming conference.
Losing to USC is no shame. That is a far better team now than it was in September, when the Trojans were playing the wrong quarterback.
Fact check: That is true. But it would help to be competitive at home, and you really weren’t.
East Coast Bias!
Fact check: You already said that.
Validity of playoff claim: The Huskies need help, because they lose the comparison to most one-loss teams.
Wisconsin (11): We’ve got two losses because we’ve played the toughest schedule in the country, and perhaps the toughest schedule known to man.
Fact check: Hannibal actually played a tougher schedule in 2nd century BC, with road games all over southern Europe. In more modern terms, Sagarin rates your schedule 11th hardest, behind four SEC West teams among others. And two losses are still twice as many as the teams above you on this list.
We beat one of those SEC West teams in the season opener. Does LSU ring a bell?
Fact check: It does. But the Tigers were still mired in the Les Miles playbook at the time. Does the Mad Hatter ring a bell?
If we avenge one of our two losses in the Big Ten championship game on a neutral field, our résumé would be as good as anyone not named Alabama.
Fact check: You might have a point. But for now that remains undone, and those two losses remain on the permanent record.
Validity of playoff claim: On the outside looking in, but not without a path to get there.
Penn State (12): Nobody is hotter than we are, baby!
Fact check: Alabama is hotter, baby. And being hot now does not erase that Pittsburgh loss.
But now Pitt has beaten Clemson, too. And we were ridiculously injured against Michigan, hence the 39-point loss.
Fact check: Most of those injuries were on defense; what explains the 10 points on offense? Besides, everyone has injuries, but nobody else under playoff consideration has a 39-point loss on the résumé.
If we get through the Big Ten East and win the league championship game, we cannot be denied a place in the playoff.
Fact check: If Clemson, Ohio State, Louisville and Washington all have one loss, and Alabama is 13-0, you may well be denied.
Validity of playoff claim: Dubious at this point, although coupling a Big Ten title with being the only team to beat the Buckeyes would carry weight.
West Virginia (13): If our name were Texas and we were 8-1, we’d be in the bracket right now.
Fact check: Oh, please. Your one defeat was by 17 points to Oklahoma State; nobody is in the bracket with that loss on the résumé.
It’s not our fault that the rest of the Big 12 is down, or that Missouri is terrible or BYU is mediocre. We tried to play a good schedule and it just didn’t work out.
Fact check: No, not your fault. But there are no sympathy points awarded by the committee for unlucky scheduling. Scheduling intent is less important than scheduling reality.
We play a nine-game league schedule, unlike those weenies in the SEC and ACC.
Fact check: That nine-game schedule includes Iowa State and Kansas, two mid-majors masquerading in Power Five clothing.
Validity of playoff claim: None at the moment. Must win out, need a Louisville loss and may need more carnage in the Pac-12 and/or Big Ten.
Oklahoma (14): Nobody is playing better than we are.
Fact check: Nobody is playing in a weaker Power Five league than you are.
Since the Big 12 went to nine conference games, nobody has ever gone undefeated. What if we do it? How can we be denied?
Fact check: By losing to Houston and Ohio State by a combined 31 points, that’s how.
But we’re Oklahoma.
Fact check: That apparently is a compelling argument to some. Not sure why.
Validity of playoff claim: Would need more mayhem to be taken remotely seriously. A lot more.
Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma pour it on against Baylor
Baker Mayfield passed for 300 yards and two touchdowns and ran for another score to help No. 9 Oklahoma defeat No. 25 Baylor 45-24.
Western Michigan (15): Row the boat! We’re undefeated!
Fact check: Absolutely true. And?
That should get us into consideration.
Fact check: It should get you into the Cotton Bowl. Don’t get greedy beyond that.
Validity of playoff claim: None. Nice season, though.
ONE PLAY AWAY …
If things don’t work out for the one-loss gang, some of them can boil it down to a single moment that will live in infamy. The Dash fully acknowledges the football bromide that games are not won or lost on one play – but for the sake of brevity, we’re boiling big losses down to exactly that:
Louisville-Clemson (16). The longest yard. Down six points and facing a fourth-and-7 at the Clemson 9 that became a fourth-and-12 from the 14 after a false start, Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson fired a pass to James Quick in the left flat. Quick turned upfield, but instead of lowering his head for the first down (or going airborne), Quick rather quickly and meekly was bumped out of bounds at the Clemson 3. Possession went over on downs to Clemson with 33 seconds let. Game over. For want of a yard and a first down, or three and a touchdown, that’s the difference between one team potentially being in the playoff and one being out.
Ohio State-Penn State (17). The rushed kick. With less than five minutes remaining and the Buckeyes leading 21-17, Urban Meyer sent out his field goal unit for a 45-yard kick. But he sent it out tardily, after dithering over whether to punt or go for the first down instead. That indecision left Ohio State rushing to get set, and Tyler Durbin’s kick was blocked and returned for a stunning score that won the game and altered the Big Ten East. The biggest brain lock was this: Meyer was sitting on two timeouts, and could have used one to give his team a chance to get properly set.
Michigan-Iowa (18). The safety that started a comeback. The Wolverines were leading 10-0 late in the second quarter – not dominating the way they had almost all season, but still in control of the game. Backed up on their own 2, Michigan handed off to De’Veon Smith in the I-formation in the end zone. Iowa defensive lineman Jaleel Johnson broke through and nailed Smith for a safety. From that point on, Michigan’s offense was just about useless – the Wolverines’ next four possessions netted 11 total yards, and that 10-0 lead became an 11-10 deficit. They scraped together just one more productive drive to re-take the lead at 13-11, but then surrendered a field goal drive at the end for a stunning loss.
Clemson-Pittsburgh (19). Fourth-down folly. With a minute left and facing a fourth-and-1 at the Pitt 35, clinging to a 42-40 lead, Dabo Swinney went for the first down instead of punting the Panthers into a hole. Running back Wayne Gallman didn’t get the first down. With just one timeout remaining, Pitt was able to move 34 yards into position for the winning field goal with six seconds left. If the Panthers had been forced to go another 15-20 yards, they might not have had the time or ability.
THE CHAOS CREATORS
Teams that could detonate the playoff structure if they wind up winning their conferences:
The team that lost to an FCS opponent: Washington State (20). The Cougars opened the year being upset by Eastern Washington, 45-42. While the greatest error might have been scheduling an FCS power that is now 9-1, Washington State compounded it by being outplayed in the second half – Eastern Washington led for the final 28 minutes, and rolled up 606 yards of offense. If Wazzu (now 8-2) wins the Pac-12 North and then takes the conference championship, is there any way the committee can invite a team that couldn’t beat an FCS opponent?
The three-loss conference champion: Tennessee (21) could be that team if the Volunteers win the East and shock the world (and Alabama) in the SEC title game; Virginia Tech (22) could do the same if it beats Virginia on Nov. 26, then upsets either Clemson or Louisville in the ACC title game; or red-hot USC (23) could be that team in the Pac-12.
If more than one of the above four teams wins a league, the committee will have some crazy scenarios to consider. So crazy that the Big 12 might even be able to backdoor its way into this thing.
GAMES THIS WEEK THAT WILL KINDA-SORTA IMPACT THE PLAYOFF
There isn’t much in terms of high-powered matchups – but the quiet weeks are often the ones that provide the biggest upheaval, as Nov. 12 proved. While keeping an eye out for a seismic shocker, here are four games of import:
Louisville-Houston (24). This Thursday night game in H-Town lost significant luster when the Cougars were defeated by Navy and SMU in a span of three weeks in October. But it’s still a huge spot for the Cardinals, who can add a quality road win while potentially putting on a show for the committee. During Bobby Petrino’s nine-minute news conference Monday, The Dash asked about the opportunity to take center stage for a night.
“Obviously we know it’s on national TV, nobody else is playing, everybody will be watching it,” Petrino said. “Those are the type of games we like, something that is fun as a team, something that we feel like has always helped us in recruiting, and we are used to playing mid-week games.”
The matchup of Lamar Jackson against Greg Ward is a tantalizing one, but Houston has to find a way to reignite its offense. The Cougars averaged 505 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play their first seven games, and 332 and 4.4 in the last three.
Dash prediction: Louisville 34, Houston 21.
Florida-LSU (25). The Relocation Bowl, to be played in Baton Rouge instead of previously scheduled Gainesville, will go a long way toward deciding who wins the SEC East. The Gators can clinch the division with a victory, while a loss would clear the way for Tennessee if the Volunteers can beat Missouri and Vanderbilt. (If they can’t, shame on ‘em.) This will not resemble a Big 12 game in terms of tempo – these teams average the fewest offensive snaps per game in the SEC, Florida at 69 and LSU at just 60.
Dash prediction: LSU 17, Florida 10.
Wazzu-Colorado (26). Neither program has won anything of note in a decade or more, but both have the chance to win their respective Pac-12 divisions. In fact, the winner of this game clinches at least a share of a divisional title, possibly more. The Buffaloes have the league’s No. 1 defense and the Cougars have the No. 2 offense, but reportedly will be missing receiver River Cracraft after he suffered a season-ending knee injury Saturday.
Dash prediction: Colorado 31, Washington State 28.
Oklahoma-West Virginia (27). Does it really matter from a playoff perspective? Probably not, but at least after this game the Big 12 will know which team to promote as its best shot. The Mountaineers are 0-4 against the Sooners since joining the conference, but they’ve also won six straight Big 12 home games.
Dash prediction: West Virginia 38, Oklahoma 37.
LOW TURNOVER NUMBERS – HOW RELIABLE IS YOUR QB?
This won’t qualify as breaking news, but looking at turnover margins in recent years underscores the importance of a smart and reliable quarterback when it comes to minimizing mistakes. Check out the national leaders in fewest turnovers, and see what they have in common:
Western Michigan is on pace to break the record for fewest turnovers in a season, with just four in 10 games. Senior QB Zach Terrell (28) has done his part, throwing just one interception in 256 pass attempts. The only two QBs in the last nine seasons with one interception in more attempts are North Carolina State’s Russell Wilson in 2008 (one in 275 throws) and South Carolina’s Connor Shaw in 2013 (one in 284).
Zach Terrell has Western Michigan undefeated and closing in on a New Year’s Six bowl game. (Getty)
The record Western Michigan is trying to break for fewest turnovers in a season belongs to Navy, and it was set last year with eight. That was largely due to the great Keenan Reynolds (29), whose ball handling in the Midshipmen’s option offense was impeccable.
In 2014, the team with the fewest turnovers was Oregon, with 11 in 15 games. The man leading that offense: Heisman Trophy-winning QB Marcus Mariota (30).
And in 2013, the co-leader in fewest turnovers was Louisville, behind Teddy Bridgewater (31). The Cardinals were tied with Reynolds-led Navy that season, with 10 turnovers apiece in 13 games.
COACHING COMEBACKS
Four coaches who were hearing it from fans and media earlier this season, but aren’t now after reversing fortunes.
James Franklin (32), Penn State. When the Nittany Lions were 2-2, athletic director Sandy Barbour was compelled to say that her coach “was not on any hot seat.” Six consecutive victories later, he’s closer to Big Ten Coach of the Year than a guy on the hot seat.
Clay Helton (33), USC. He lost four of his first five games after being named the full-time coach late last season. Among those losses was a 52-6 wipeout to open this year against Alabama – the Trojans’ worst loss in 50 years. That cranked up criticism of a questionable hire, but USC has clicked off six straight wins highlighted by that big win at Washington on Saturday. If Helton had gone with redshirt freshman Sam Darnold to start the season instead of junior Max Browne, USC might be in the playoff chase.
Chuck Martin (34), Miami (Ohio). The Redhawks started the year 0-6, dropping Martin’s record to 5-25 at the school. Since then they have won five straight, with the last four by double digits. This is another case of a quarterback change making a massive difference – Martin went to sophomore Gus Ragland at 0-6, and the sophomore has produced 12 touchdown passes and zero interceptions during this five-game winning streak. Ragland now is 143 passes into his college career without having thrown a pick.
And after shocking Michigan, maybe Kirk Ferentz (35) of Iowa will get 10 more years on his deal. The man with the golden contract had a few critics after a 5-4 start with a lot of returning talent from last year’s Big Ten West champion team, but taking out a top-five team is a reminder that Ferentz is Coach For Life in Iowa City.
COACHING FADES
They were being lauded earlier in the season. Not so much now.
Kevin Sumlin (36), Texas A&M. There he goes again. The Aggies were noted for fast starts and ugly flameouts the previous two seasons: They were 5-0 in 2014 and then lost five of their last seven; they were 5-0 in 2015 and lost four of their last seven. This season A&M started 6-0 and since has lost three of four. Being beaten by Alabama in Tuscaloosa is one thing; losing handily at Mississippi State and at home to Mississippi is something else entirely. Ending up 8-5 for the third straight year is both conceivable and undesirable.
Mark Richt (37), Miami. Hurricanes fans were giddy after a 4-0 start against light competition. They were less giddy when the record was 4-4. But now the pendulum has swung back the other way again, with consecutive big wins over Pittsburgh (by 23) and Virginia (by 20). If Miami finishes with wins over North Carolina State and Duke to complete three separate four-game streaks, fans of The U likely would take it as a building block toward someday returning to prominence.
COACH WHO EARNED HIS COMP CAR THIS WEEK
Tom Arth (38), John Carroll. This, of course, presumes that Arth has a comp car. If not, he should have one now, because on Saturday his Blue Streaks broke Mount Union’s NCAA-record, 112-game regular-season winning streak with a 31-28 triumph. That gives the school near Cleveland the Ohio Athletic Conference title and sends the Streaks to the NCAA Division III playoffs.
COACH WHO SHOULD TAKE THE BUS TO WORK
Todd Graham (39), Arizona State. With the Sun Devils’ 49-26 home mauling from Utah, Graham has made some dubious history. This was the first time since 1942 that ASU has lost four conference games by 19 or more points. The conference then: the Border Intercollegiate Athletic Association. The four teams that inflicted the damage: West Texas A&M, Arizona, UTEP and New Mexico. This time: USC, Colorado, Oregon, Utah.
At 2-5 in the Pac-12, Arizona State is suffering system failure. The Sun Devils surrendered 11 sacks against Utah and 22 tackles for loss. In one game. The Devils have allowed 33 sacks on the season, which is tied for 121st nationally and tied (with South Carolina) for most allowed by a Power Five team.
But the other side of the ball is probably worse: ASU is 124th nationally in total defense and 126th in yards allowed per play.
POINT AFTER
When following #MACtion to Muncie and feeling thirsty, The Dash recommends a remarkable Midwestern oasis: Thr3e Wise Men Brewing Co. (40). It is located within a nice, modern Courtyard Marriott at the downtown convention center, and the beers will not disappoint. Have a Centennial Martyr Double IPA and thank The Dash later.
Link: https://www.yahoo.com/sports/news/f...yoff-hopeful-not-named-alabama-051954341.html
