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West Virginia
Current record: 3-6 | Record since 2019: 20-24What's gone wrong: After entering the AP top 10 and finishing in the top 20 in 2016 and 2018 under Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia seemed positioned to compete in the Big 12 despite being a geographic outlier. Even after Holgorsen left for a Group of 5 job at Houston, Neal Brown seemed like a smart and sensible replacement. He connected well with those around the program and brought a good track record with offense and player development. But West Virginia has never truly put it all together during Brown's tenure. The team ranked 101st nationally in scoring offense (24 ppg) during Brown's first three seasons, but typically had solid defenses. This fall, WVU is scoring more than 32 points per game, but has slipped to 120th nationally in points allowed. Big 12 play has been especially difficult, as WVU sits in last place and will post its third losing league record in four seasons.
A disclaimer here: Brown's job status is very tenuous, entering the final three games, although he's owed $20 million if fired this year. In the interest of fairness, WVU's fix-it plan is under the assumption that Brown returns in 2023, but also can apply to a new coach.
Five steps to fix the Mountaineers
1. Creating defensive depth: In 2020 and 2021, WVU's defense was the team's strength, ranking 25th nationally in points allowed and 23rd in yards per play allowed over the span. WVU seemingly had adjusted to a Big 12 leaning more toward defense. So why the regression this season? Attrition has hurt the unit lately, as several starters transferred this offseason. "Some things haven't worked out the way that we thought they would, we haven't had all the pieces that we thought we would," defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley said last month. The unit lacks star power, and WVU must find some, either through better transfer portal selections or with player development.2. Reclaim big plays on offense: After the 2021 season, Brown gave up offensive playcalling and brought in Graham Harrell from USC to take over. Harrell's offense has been more productive than WVU's previous versions, but the big plays simply haven't come often enough. The Mountaineers rank 104th nationally in yards per attempt (6.57) and 107th in percentage of completions at 10 yards or longer (40.7). Quarterback J.T. Daniels is completing only 61.3% of his passes. Daniels will depart after the season, but WVU needs to figure out how to incorporate more downfield passing. WVU has two quarterbacks from the state of Arizona, Will Crowder and ESPN 300 prospect Nicco Marchiol, ready to compete in 2023.
3. Continue to grow NIL platform: Like most teams, WVU needs to make the transfer portal a net positive, which it wasn't during the most recent offseason. That's where name, image and likeness becomes so important. The continued growth of Country Roads Trust, West Virginia's NIL collective, will help keep players in Morgantown and attract potential impact transfers to the program. Former West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck co-founded the collective, and its advisory team includes Jerry West, Pat McAfee and other notables. Those familiar with WVU said the NIL structure there is strong, but how much true financial clout the collective has, at least compared with others, remains to be seen. But NIL can become a strength for WVU and help some of its roster challenges. Since West Virginia updated its football facility in 2021, the school can focus more in enhancing its NIL program.
4. Find a niche in scheme and recruiting: WVU's best teams have embraced distinct elements, both in scheme and recruiting. "We couldn't operate like everybody else," a former staff member said. Former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez was among the originators of the spread offense that incorporated zone-read concepts for running quarterbacks. Rodriguez and his staff also thrived by recruiting Florida and other pockets of the South. Holgorsen brought the Air Raid to Morgantown, and WVU used the 3-3-5 defense. Holgorsen was actually ahead of the curve on transfers in the pre-portal days, adding impact players from junior college - Rasul Douglas, Skyler Howard and the White brothers (Kevin, Kyzir, Ka'Raun) - and other FBS schools (quarterbacks Will Grier). Brown has done well in the state and neighboring Pennsylvania, although the large 2022 recruiting class had a national flavor. WVU must continue to refine its strategy, both with high school recruits and transfers, as the Big 12 membership changes in the coming seasons.
5. Develop and retain top DBs: Not long ago, West Virginia was regularly producing top defensive backs. From 2016 and 2018, WVU had five defensive backs selected in the NFL draft, including first-round pick Karl Joseph. Tony Gibson, a West Virginia native who had two extended stints on the Mountaineers' coaching staff, elevated the talent level and play during his five seasons as defensive coordinator under Holgorsen. WVU prioritized speed in its 3-3-5 defense and found the right players. The team has had only one defensive back drafted during the Brown era -- Kenny Robinson in 2020 -- and has lost notable players to the portal, including Tykee Smith and Dreshun Miller last year. WVU has good draft history at other positions, including running back, but restoring the secondary should be a priority.
