Nice article by Jed, but man the whole "Brocktober" expression makes me hate ISU even more. This article does point out what a bad match up this is for us though. We really need the football gods to look favorably on us tomorrow to get this one.
Hot Reads: Brocktober Surprise?
By Jed Drenning
October 29, 2021 10:47 AM
Radio sideline reporter Jed Drenning provides periodic commentary on the Mountaineer football program for WVUsports.com. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @TheSignalCaller.
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - Halloween weekend 1986.
Cyndi Lauper and Crocodile Dundee were huge, but Don Nehlen was mired in the longest losing streak of his West Virginia coaching career. It was a strange time for Mountaineer football to bestow upon us a gift that would keep on giving for years to come.
We'll get back to that in a minute.
Long before I was a broadcaster, I was a fan. And there are moments when I still find myself settling into that cozy role. Case in point -- it's as a Mountaineer fan, not a broadcaster – that I listen to Tony Caridi set the scene for the game each week.
That's what I was doing last month as kickoff against Virginia Tech approached. It was a huge moment, teeming with anticipation, and Tony was up to the task. He authored an intro that was truly worthy of the moment.
Tony's been behind the Mountaineer Sports Network mic for 314 football games. He's delivered a loooong list of classic scene setters during that time, but for my money that one was among his best. Here's a taste:
"This afternoon here in Morgantown, we will step back in time – and those emotions will again rage like the rapids of the New River that meander through both Virginia and West Virginia."
It was a dandy. I was immediately reminded of the emotions evoked by one of the greatest scene setters to ever open an MSN production: Jack's Halloween.
No, that's not a Tim Burton flick.
Like most great things these days, it's readily available in video form on YouTube.
"Halloween weekend," the voice crackles over the radio. "And the goblin riding in on a broom is wearing a sportcoat, a sweater and a red tie."
In the background, The Pride of West Virginia performs a flawless rendition of Simple Gifts as the narration continues.
"His graying hair is parted neatly on the left side and topping off a prominent nose and a persistent frown is a pair of eyeglasses – the trademark of one of the nation's most successful football coaches, Joe Paterno. Joe is accompanied here by a frightening group of white-clad ghosts, the No. 2 ranked and undefeated Nittany Lions of Penn State."
Those, of course, were the immortal words of the late Jack Fleming as he set the scene for the broadcast of Penn State versus West Virginia in Morgantown the night after Halloween 1986. And somehow, all these years later, not even a Mountaineer loss that night has detracted from the timeless luster of Jack's message.
As we embark on another Halloween weekend of WVU football, don't forget that every ghoul has a weakness. Can West Virginia find the silver bullet it will take to defang No. 22 Iowa State and break the spell the Cyclones have cast on the Mountaineers since 2018? Let's explore.
1) BROCKTOBER
Heading into Matt Campbell's second season at the helm in 2017, ISU hadn't enjoyed an unbeaten October in nearly 80 years. Since then, they've racked up three of them and ripped off an October record of 16-2. Among Power 5 programs, only Alabama (17-1) has won more games in October during this span.
ISU has been especially impressive behind quarterback Brock Purdy. With Purdy, it has posted a 12-2 record in October and have averaged 37 points per game, prompting the Iowa State media to dub the month "Brocktober."
Mountaineer fans are familiar with Purdy's talents. In fact, the seeds of "Brocktober" were planted in October 2018 when Purdy led ISU to an upset win over unbeaten and No. 6-ranked West Virginia in his first career start. Since then, he has blossomed into the most accomplished quarterback to ever don the cardinal and gold. Purdy owns or shares 31 school records, and he stands as the only Iowa State signal caller in history to author a win over every league team.
But he has plenty of help.
Cyclone running back Breece Hall has scored a rushing touchdown in 19 straight games – the fourth-longest FBS streak since 1996. Hall had more rushing yards last year (1,572) than any player in the country.
On the perimeter, 6-foot-3 receiver Xavier Hutchinson demands attention. For a second straight year, he leads the Big 12 in catches (46). Hutchinson is a great technician with a burst that has helped him rack up more yards after catch (667) than any player in the conference since the start of 2020.
Then there's the mythical beast wearing No. 88 for the Cyclones – Charlie Kolar. No active tight end in college football has more career catches than the 6-foot-6, 260-pound matchup nightmare Kolar (133).
Cyclones Offensive Coordinator Tom Manning, who has coached tight ends in the NFL and is masterful at weaponizing the position, recognizes Kolar's talent as a pass catcher and caters to it, moving him around the formation like a chess piece. Per Pro Football Focus, Kolar's receiving grade from wide receiver alignments over the last couple of seasons was the best in the FBS, even surpassing Florida's Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL draft last spring.
This is a fundamentally sound offense that doesn't beat itself. ISU is almost pathological in its intent to move forward and stay ahead of the chains. That mentality has paid off. Only 14% of the Cyclones' third downs are 10 yards or longer, the lowest such percentage in the Big 12. It's tough to get this offense off schedule.
That's by design.
For the third straight year, ISU is the least penalized team in the conference. You rarely see them pushed back by a false start or a holding call. Moreover, the Cyclones protect the quarterback (second-fewest sacks allowed in the league) and have surrendered the fewest tackles for loss (29 for just 83 yards).
It's pretty obvious Matt Campbell really doesn't like going backwards. I'll bet he hated that Benjamin Button movie.
If West Virginia hopes to pull a Brocktober surprise as heavy underdogs, they'll need to take the fight to ISU with plenty of penetration from Dante Stills, Akheem Mesidor and Co. Only then might it recapture the edge that helped force three turnovers in the span of 16 plays last week against TCU.
2) THE BROKEN STACK
Necessity, we've been told, is the mother of invention.
Forty-nine-and-a-half months ago, the Cyclones had just returned from a 41-14 win at Akron. It was mid-September 2017 and ISU was heading into its open week before a game against Texas. The Iowa State defense had been unremarkable yet was trending toward improvement from the year before. But in Campbell's view, that was small-time thinking.
He didn't take the ISU job to blow out the Zips or even to compete with the Longhorns. He was there to win a Big 12 championship. In Campbell's opinion, what Iowa State was doing defensively, or even trying to do, was not going to frustrate Air Raid offenses consistently enough to give the 'Clones a chance to play for that league trophy.
What happened next has been well chronicled, including a great piece by Max Olson for The Athletic in 2018.
Iowa State effectively scrapped its defensive playbook and started anew. Feeling its roster might be a square peg being jammed into a round hole, the staff realized whatever system it devised would need to better suit the talent on hand. That led to some obvious questions.
Who are our best 11 players and how do we get them in the line-up?
They settled it with a vote -- a vote that would ultimately impact the sport at large as dozens of teams, college and pro alike, have visited Ames for a peak behind the curtain at the Cyclones' defensive success in recent years. Even Bill Belichick has adopted some of these concepts in New England.
As the voting unfolded, it became apparent ISU would be implementing some form of a three-man, odd front. Right out of the gate that was a bold concession by defensive coordinator Jon Heacock who had spent his entire career coaching four-man, even-front defenses.
Oh, my, has the game changed. Try and imagine Bear Bryant or Woody Hayes passing out ballots in the staff room to make a decision.
When the votes were tallied, the coaches landed on a mix of three defensive linemen, three linebackers and five defensive backs as their best 11. With little expertise in the odd front space, Heacock leaned on his staff to help paint this blank canvass, including linebackers coach Tyson Veidt.
At a previous stop as a Division III head coach, Veidt had deployed the 3-3-5 defense. Why? Because when Veidt took that job at Bluffton University, he was just three years removed from serving as a defensive graduate assistant at West Virginia, where the Mountaineers were running the odd stack with coordinator Jeff Casteel.
Veidt played a vital role in implementing the run fits for the Cyclones' new-look scheme. The whole defensive staff pitched in, gluing things together like a ransom note, including the installation of coverage concepts that complemented the rush defense.
The result was a (very) modified dime package that Heacock has called a 3-3-3. How drastic were the changes? They tabbed five new defensive starters, including a former quarterback (Joel Lanning) who owned a share of an Iowa State single game record (five rushing touchdown) moving over to middle linebacker. The system they created was heavily predicated on the versatility of two key positions – the middle safety (which Iowa State refers to as the STAR safety), and the Sam linebacker.
The STAR is the Swiss Army knife in this scheme. He's part deep safety, part robber and part contact-loving run defender. As Cody Alexander has discussed at MatchQuarters.com, the flexibility of the STAR in this system is what enables the Cyclones to break the anchor points of a traditional 3-3-5 defense and move into different alignments with that same personnel, prompting some to refer to this scheme as the "Broken Stack."
Holding down that STAR spot is sophomore Isheem Young, the 2020 Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year. He's a physical and productive player who finds his way to the football.
At Sam linebacker, 2020 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Mike Rose (299 career tackles) occupies the other key spot in the ISU defense. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Rose is long and instinctive. He's a physical enough force to set the edge on the strong side against the run but is also equipped with the speed to chase things down.
Rose's kryptonite? Pass coverage. Despite his accolades last year, Rose ended the season as the most targeted linebacker in the Big 12. Opposing teams threw at him 54 times as he surrendered a league-high 490 yards and 320 yards after catch. According to Pro Football Focus, his coverage grade this season (56.5) is even lower than in 2020 (64.5).
Yes, he's the highest graded run stopper among Big 12 linebackers (84.0), but isolate Rose in space against a shifty pass catcher and he struggles. Watch Iowa State's season opener last month against Northern Iowa.
To the wide side of the field, Rose was aligned with inside leverage on UNI's 5-foot-10, 180-pound slot receiver Quan Hampton. Hampton broke into a slant and Rose reacted too slowly. Rose reached for the ball as Hampton was securing it but missed, leaving him too high for an effective tackle attempt. Hampton shook him off and raced 52 yards for a Panther touchdown. Watching this, you realize that finding creative ways to get Winston Wright, Jr. or Sam James isolated on Rose would be a big advantage for West Virginia.
But don't think such opportunities are in abundance against an Iowa State defense allowing fewer yards per game versus the pass (163) than any Big 12 team since 2010. As such, the Cyclones present with looks that will foster your temptation to try and run the football – "soft" boxes that are populated with only four or five defenders.
They might appear to be outnumbered at the point of attack, but don't trust your eyes. That STAR safety is versatile for a reason. Don't be surprised to see him fly downhill into a run fit on the snap. In fact, don't be shocked if Iowa State fires multiple safeties into the box or trap with a cornerback, or if the Sam backer brings run support from the wide side. In some packages, the box against ISU will potentially be plugged after the snap by as many as nine Cyclones fitting the run. The scariest part? Many of those second- and third-level defenders won't be entirely accounted for in the blocking scheme and have a shot to become free runners.
It's diabolical. You see what figures to be an inviting box. You dial up an inside zone play, thinking you have a numerical advantage. Then the ball is snapped and the Cyclones swarm to their run fits like someone opened the doors at Walmart on Black Friday.
The ability to do this from a two-high safety structure is how Iowa State has allowed the fewest plays of 30+ yards (five) in college football this season. It's also why, in three losses to ISU since 2018, West Virginia has managed just 52, 41 and 54 yards on the ground.
As hellbent as the Iowa State offense is with staying on schedule, the Clones defense is equally obsessed with knocking you off it. ISU consistently puts you behind the eight-ball on third down.
All told, 51% of all third downs against the Cyclones defense this year have been third and 7 or longer and 32% have been third and 10 or longer. This steady diet of third and longs has contributed to Iowa State being the only Power 5 defense not to allow a single touchdown of any kind on third down so far this year.
Patience in the running game and precision in the quick passing game will be critical for West Virginia's offensive effort. The matchup in the intermediate-to-deep passing game could prove instrumental as well. WVU leads the Big 12 with 31 completions of 20-plus yards and will look to add to that total against an ISU defense that, with exotic coverages clogging up the middle, has allowed the fewest 20-plus yard passes in the league (20).
The biggest factor for the Mountaineer offense, however, might be its ability to stay ahead of the chains. Limit the penalties and minimize Iowa State's disruptive plays. As long as WVU is consistently geared forward and not in reverse, making routine plays without mistakes, good things will happen. You don't go broke making a profit.
***
A year ago, WVU limped into Jack Trice Stadium with multiple starters out. They were soundly whipped by a very good Iowa State team 42-6.
Saturday's challenge will be arduous, but not impossible. At least that's what my dive into history taught me this week. Realizing West Virginia will be tasked with flipping the script on a team that last season beat the Mountaineers by 36, it made me wonder . . . How often has WVU rebounded to knock off a team that beat it by 30-plus points the season before? By my unofficial count, it's happened a dozen times – including twice in 2014. Here is the list:
2015 TCU 40, WVU 10
2016 WVU 34, TCU 10
2013 Baylor 73, WVU 42
2014 WVU 41, Baylor 27
2013 Maryland 37, WVU 0
2014 WVU 40, Maryland 37
2003 Maryland 41, WVU 7 (2004 Gator Bowl)
2004 WVU 19, Maryland 16 (OT)
2001 Virginia Tech 35, WVU 0
2002 WVU 21, Virginia Tech 18
1999 Maryland 33, WVU 0
2000 WVU 30, Maryland 17
1997 Syracuse 40, WVU 10
1998 WVU 35, Syracuse 28
1991 Pitt 34, WVU 3
1992 WVU 44, Pitt 6
1974 Boston College 35, WVU 3
1975 WVU 35, Boston College 18
1960 Pitt 42, WVU 0
1961 WVU 20, Pitt 6
1951 Washington & Lee 34, WVU 0
1952 WVU 31, Washington & Lee 13
1927 Pitt 40, WVU 0
1928 WVU 9, Pitt 6
A lot of the traditional rivals you might expect showed up — but why not add an Iowa State tombstone to that memorable dozen? Nothing says Halloween weekend like No. 13. After all, Jack Fleming reminded us in that scene setter all those years ago of the magical things this game can give you when you least expect it.
"They will do battle as a prohibitive underdog, but they will play this game with the knowledge that anything can happen in football. On any given night, on any given field, it can happen!"
Indeed it can. And what will happen Saturday is Tony will set the scene and I'll listen.
And in that moment, I'll be a fan.
I'll see you at the 50.
Hot Reads: Brocktober Surprise?
By Jed Drenning
October 29, 2021 10:47 AM
Radio sideline reporter Jed Drenning provides periodic commentary on the Mountaineer football program for WVUsports.com. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @TheSignalCaller.
MORGANTOWN, W.Va. - Halloween weekend 1986.
Cyndi Lauper and Crocodile Dundee were huge, but Don Nehlen was mired in the longest losing streak of his West Virginia coaching career. It was a strange time for Mountaineer football to bestow upon us a gift that would keep on giving for years to come.
We'll get back to that in a minute.
Long before I was a broadcaster, I was a fan. And there are moments when I still find myself settling into that cozy role. Case in point -- it's as a Mountaineer fan, not a broadcaster – that I listen to Tony Caridi set the scene for the game each week.
That's what I was doing last month as kickoff against Virginia Tech approached. It was a huge moment, teeming with anticipation, and Tony was up to the task. He authored an intro that was truly worthy of the moment.
Tony's been behind the Mountaineer Sports Network mic for 314 football games. He's delivered a loooong list of classic scene setters during that time, but for my money that one was among his best. Here's a taste:
"This afternoon here in Morgantown, we will step back in time – and those emotions will again rage like the rapids of the New River that meander through both Virginia and West Virginia."
It was a dandy. I was immediately reminded of the emotions evoked by one of the greatest scene setters to ever open an MSN production: Jack's Halloween.
No, that's not a Tim Burton flick.
Like most great things these days, it's readily available in video form on YouTube.
"Halloween weekend," the voice crackles over the radio. "And the goblin riding in on a broom is wearing a sportcoat, a sweater and a red tie."
In the background, The Pride of West Virginia performs a flawless rendition of Simple Gifts as the narration continues.
"His graying hair is parted neatly on the left side and topping off a prominent nose and a persistent frown is a pair of eyeglasses – the trademark of one of the nation's most successful football coaches, Joe Paterno. Joe is accompanied here by a frightening group of white-clad ghosts, the No. 2 ranked and undefeated Nittany Lions of Penn State."
Those, of course, were the immortal words of the late Jack Fleming as he set the scene for the broadcast of Penn State versus West Virginia in Morgantown the night after Halloween 1986. And somehow, all these years later, not even a Mountaineer loss that night has detracted from the timeless luster of Jack's message.
As we embark on another Halloween weekend of WVU football, don't forget that every ghoul has a weakness. Can West Virginia find the silver bullet it will take to defang No. 22 Iowa State and break the spell the Cyclones have cast on the Mountaineers since 2018? Let's explore.
1) BROCKTOBER
Heading into Matt Campbell's second season at the helm in 2017, ISU hadn't enjoyed an unbeaten October in nearly 80 years. Since then, they've racked up three of them and ripped off an October record of 16-2. Among Power 5 programs, only Alabama (17-1) has won more games in October during this span.
ISU has been especially impressive behind quarterback Brock Purdy. With Purdy, it has posted a 12-2 record in October and have averaged 37 points per game, prompting the Iowa State media to dub the month "Brocktober."
Mountaineer fans are familiar with Purdy's talents. In fact, the seeds of "Brocktober" were planted in October 2018 when Purdy led ISU to an upset win over unbeaten and No. 6-ranked West Virginia in his first career start. Since then, he has blossomed into the most accomplished quarterback to ever don the cardinal and gold. Purdy owns or shares 31 school records, and he stands as the only Iowa State signal caller in history to author a win over every league team.
But he has plenty of help.
Cyclone running back Breece Hall has scored a rushing touchdown in 19 straight games – the fourth-longest FBS streak since 1996. Hall had more rushing yards last year (1,572) than any player in the country.
On the perimeter, 6-foot-3 receiver Xavier Hutchinson demands attention. For a second straight year, he leads the Big 12 in catches (46). Hutchinson is a great technician with a burst that has helped him rack up more yards after catch (667) than any player in the conference since the start of 2020.
Then there's the mythical beast wearing No. 88 for the Cyclones – Charlie Kolar. No active tight end in college football has more career catches than the 6-foot-6, 260-pound matchup nightmare Kolar (133).
Cyclones Offensive Coordinator Tom Manning, who has coached tight ends in the NFL and is masterful at weaponizing the position, recognizes Kolar's talent as a pass catcher and caters to it, moving him around the formation like a chess piece. Per Pro Football Focus, Kolar's receiving grade from wide receiver alignments over the last couple of seasons was the best in the FBS, even surpassing Florida's Kyle Pitts, the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL draft last spring.
This is a fundamentally sound offense that doesn't beat itself. ISU is almost pathological in its intent to move forward and stay ahead of the chains. That mentality has paid off. Only 14% of the Cyclones' third downs are 10 yards or longer, the lowest such percentage in the Big 12. It's tough to get this offense off schedule.
That's by design.
For the third straight year, ISU is the least penalized team in the conference. You rarely see them pushed back by a false start or a holding call. Moreover, the Cyclones protect the quarterback (second-fewest sacks allowed in the league) and have surrendered the fewest tackles for loss (29 for just 83 yards).
It's pretty obvious Matt Campbell really doesn't like going backwards. I'll bet he hated that Benjamin Button movie.
If West Virginia hopes to pull a Brocktober surprise as heavy underdogs, they'll need to take the fight to ISU with plenty of penetration from Dante Stills, Akheem Mesidor and Co. Only then might it recapture the edge that helped force three turnovers in the span of 16 plays last week against TCU.
2) THE BROKEN STACK
Necessity, we've been told, is the mother of invention.
Forty-nine-and-a-half months ago, the Cyclones had just returned from a 41-14 win at Akron. It was mid-September 2017 and ISU was heading into its open week before a game against Texas. The Iowa State defense had been unremarkable yet was trending toward improvement from the year before. But in Campbell's view, that was small-time thinking.
He didn't take the ISU job to blow out the Zips or even to compete with the Longhorns. He was there to win a Big 12 championship. In Campbell's opinion, what Iowa State was doing defensively, or even trying to do, was not going to frustrate Air Raid offenses consistently enough to give the 'Clones a chance to play for that league trophy.
What happened next has been well chronicled, including a great piece by Max Olson for The Athletic in 2018.
Iowa State effectively scrapped its defensive playbook and started anew. Feeling its roster might be a square peg being jammed into a round hole, the staff realized whatever system it devised would need to better suit the talent on hand. That led to some obvious questions.
Who are our best 11 players and how do we get them in the line-up?
They settled it with a vote -- a vote that would ultimately impact the sport at large as dozens of teams, college and pro alike, have visited Ames for a peak behind the curtain at the Cyclones' defensive success in recent years. Even Bill Belichick has adopted some of these concepts in New England.
As the voting unfolded, it became apparent ISU would be implementing some form of a three-man, odd front. Right out of the gate that was a bold concession by defensive coordinator Jon Heacock who had spent his entire career coaching four-man, even-front defenses.
Oh, my, has the game changed. Try and imagine Bear Bryant or Woody Hayes passing out ballots in the staff room to make a decision.
When the votes were tallied, the coaches landed on a mix of three defensive linemen, three linebackers and five defensive backs as their best 11. With little expertise in the odd front space, Heacock leaned on his staff to help paint this blank canvass, including linebackers coach Tyson Veidt.
At a previous stop as a Division III head coach, Veidt had deployed the 3-3-5 defense. Why? Because when Veidt took that job at Bluffton University, he was just three years removed from serving as a defensive graduate assistant at West Virginia, where the Mountaineers were running the odd stack with coordinator Jeff Casteel.
Veidt played a vital role in implementing the run fits for the Cyclones' new-look scheme. The whole defensive staff pitched in, gluing things together like a ransom note, including the installation of coverage concepts that complemented the rush defense.
The result was a (very) modified dime package that Heacock has called a 3-3-3. How drastic were the changes? They tabbed five new defensive starters, including a former quarterback (Joel Lanning) who owned a share of an Iowa State single game record (five rushing touchdown) moving over to middle linebacker. The system they created was heavily predicated on the versatility of two key positions – the middle safety (which Iowa State refers to as the STAR safety), and the Sam linebacker.
The STAR is the Swiss Army knife in this scheme. He's part deep safety, part robber and part contact-loving run defender. As Cody Alexander has discussed at MatchQuarters.com, the flexibility of the STAR in this system is what enables the Cyclones to break the anchor points of a traditional 3-3-5 defense and move into different alignments with that same personnel, prompting some to refer to this scheme as the "Broken Stack."
Holding down that STAR spot is sophomore Isheem Young, the 2020 Big 12 Co-Defensive Freshman of the Year. He's a physical and productive player who finds his way to the football.
At Sam linebacker, 2020 Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Mike Rose (299 career tackles) occupies the other key spot in the ISU defense. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Rose is long and instinctive. He's a physical enough force to set the edge on the strong side against the run but is also equipped with the speed to chase things down.
Rose's kryptonite? Pass coverage. Despite his accolades last year, Rose ended the season as the most targeted linebacker in the Big 12. Opposing teams threw at him 54 times as he surrendered a league-high 490 yards and 320 yards after catch. According to Pro Football Focus, his coverage grade this season (56.5) is even lower than in 2020 (64.5).
Yes, he's the highest graded run stopper among Big 12 linebackers (84.0), but isolate Rose in space against a shifty pass catcher and he struggles. Watch Iowa State's season opener last month against Northern Iowa.
To the wide side of the field, Rose was aligned with inside leverage on UNI's 5-foot-10, 180-pound slot receiver Quan Hampton. Hampton broke into a slant and Rose reacted too slowly. Rose reached for the ball as Hampton was securing it but missed, leaving him too high for an effective tackle attempt. Hampton shook him off and raced 52 yards for a Panther touchdown. Watching this, you realize that finding creative ways to get Winston Wright, Jr. or Sam James isolated on Rose would be a big advantage for West Virginia.
But don't think such opportunities are in abundance against an Iowa State defense allowing fewer yards per game versus the pass (163) than any Big 12 team since 2010. As such, the Cyclones present with looks that will foster your temptation to try and run the football – "soft" boxes that are populated with only four or five defenders.
They might appear to be outnumbered at the point of attack, but don't trust your eyes. That STAR safety is versatile for a reason. Don't be surprised to see him fly downhill into a run fit on the snap. In fact, don't be shocked if Iowa State fires multiple safeties into the box or trap with a cornerback, or if the Sam backer brings run support from the wide side. In some packages, the box against ISU will potentially be plugged after the snap by as many as nine Cyclones fitting the run. The scariest part? Many of those second- and third-level defenders won't be entirely accounted for in the blocking scheme and have a shot to become free runners.
It's diabolical. You see what figures to be an inviting box. You dial up an inside zone play, thinking you have a numerical advantage. Then the ball is snapped and the Cyclones swarm to their run fits like someone opened the doors at Walmart on Black Friday.
The ability to do this from a two-high safety structure is how Iowa State has allowed the fewest plays of 30+ yards (five) in college football this season. It's also why, in three losses to ISU since 2018, West Virginia has managed just 52, 41 and 54 yards on the ground.
As hellbent as the Iowa State offense is with staying on schedule, the Clones defense is equally obsessed with knocking you off it. ISU consistently puts you behind the eight-ball on third down.
All told, 51% of all third downs against the Cyclones defense this year have been third and 7 or longer and 32% have been third and 10 or longer. This steady diet of third and longs has contributed to Iowa State being the only Power 5 defense not to allow a single touchdown of any kind on third down so far this year.
Patience in the running game and precision in the quick passing game will be critical for West Virginia's offensive effort. The matchup in the intermediate-to-deep passing game could prove instrumental as well. WVU leads the Big 12 with 31 completions of 20-plus yards and will look to add to that total against an ISU defense that, with exotic coverages clogging up the middle, has allowed the fewest 20-plus yard passes in the league (20).
The biggest factor for the Mountaineer offense, however, might be its ability to stay ahead of the chains. Limit the penalties and minimize Iowa State's disruptive plays. As long as WVU is consistently geared forward and not in reverse, making routine plays without mistakes, good things will happen. You don't go broke making a profit.
***
A year ago, WVU limped into Jack Trice Stadium with multiple starters out. They were soundly whipped by a very good Iowa State team 42-6.
Saturday's challenge will be arduous, but not impossible. At least that's what my dive into history taught me this week. Realizing West Virginia will be tasked with flipping the script on a team that last season beat the Mountaineers by 36, it made me wonder . . . How often has WVU rebounded to knock off a team that beat it by 30-plus points the season before? By my unofficial count, it's happened a dozen times – including twice in 2014. Here is the list:
2015 TCU 40, WVU 10
2016 WVU 34, TCU 10
2013 Baylor 73, WVU 42
2014 WVU 41, Baylor 27
2013 Maryland 37, WVU 0
2014 WVU 40, Maryland 37
2003 Maryland 41, WVU 7 (2004 Gator Bowl)
2004 WVU 19, Maryland 16 (OT)
2001 Virginia Tech 35, WVU 0
2002 WVU 21, Virginia Tech 18
1999 Maryland 33, WVU 0
2000 WVU 30, Maryland 17
1997 Syracuse 40, WVU 10
1998 WVU 35, Syracuse 28
1991 Pitt 34, WVU 3
1992 WVU 44, Pitt 6
1974 Boston College 35, WVU 3
1975 WVU 35, Boston College 18
1960 Pitt 42, WVU 0
1961 WVU 20, Pitt 6
1951 Washington & Lee 34, WVU 0
1952 WVU 31, Washington & Lee 13
1927 Pitt 40, WVU 0
1928 WVU 9, Pitt 6
A lot of the traditional rivals you might expect showed up — but why not add an Iowa State tombstone to that memorable dozen? Nothing says Halloween weekend like No. 13. After all, Jack Fleming reminded us in that scene setter all those years ago of the magical things this game can give you when you least expect it.
"They will do battle as a prohibitive underdog, but they will play this game with the knowledge that anything can happen in football. On any given night, on any given field, it can happen!"
Indeed it can. And what will happen Saturday is Tony will set the scene and I'll listen.
And in that moment, I'll be a fan.
I'll see you at the 50.
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