What I think is fair (as if FAIR matters)
Bama
Clemson
Washington
Iran
What I think will happen (ie my prediction)
Bama
Clemson
Ohio State
Washington
Notice they're saving BAMA vs the Ohio Stare/Clemson winner for the finals even though Washington won a conference and Ohio State didn't even win a division in a conference.
This whole playoff is driven by getting the best 4 schools for TV, especially after last season when the ratings bottom just fell out. Espn will lose big time if ratings are bad again and they are driving the conversation. Ohio State gets more eye balls than Iran. They'll likely get in even though sane # of wins as and Iran won the head to head.
If there is another down year in ratings, they'll expand the playoffs..