WVU Bowl Projections – Week of 11/30/2015

[WVex-pat in GA]

Here's the wrap up based on the latest published projections. A couple of caveats; Athlon published last week based on a two-week projection and SI published on 11/25/15 as noted. I'll update if they decide to do so.

Looks like there is still no consensus, but the final results will be known on Sunday evening. The Liberty Bowl is a slim frontrunner over the Cactus Bowl with Tennessee the most popular opponent. No real consensus on opponents after that for any bowl.


Athlon Sports - Autozone Liberty Bowl - 1/2/16 – Memphis, TN - vs. Arkansas

Campus Insider - Autozone Liberty Bowl - 1/2/16 – Memphis, TN - vs. Tennessee

CBS Sports - Cactus Bowl - 1/2/16 – Tempe, AZ – vs. Cal.

CFB News - Autozone Liberty Bowl - 1/2/16 – Memphis, TN - vs. Tennessee

CollegeSportsMadness.com – Advocare 100 Texas Bowl - 12/29 – Houston,TX – MS St.

ESPN (Brett McMurphy) – Advocare 100 Texas Bowl - 12/29 – Houston,TX - vs. LSU

ESPN (Mark Schlabach) - Cactus Bowl - 1/2/16 – Tempe, AZ – vs. AZ St.

Fansided.com - Autozone Liberty Bowl - 1/2/16 – Memphis, TN - vs. Tennessee

SB Nation/ - Cactus Bowl - 1/2/16 – Tempe, AZ - vs. UCLA

SI - Cactus Bowl - 1/2/16 – Tempe, AZ - vs. Wash St. (11/25/15)

Sporting News -Autozone Liberty Bowl - 1/2/16 – Memphis, TN - vs. UGA

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

Athlon Sports updated their Bowl Projections today:

Athlon Sports - Cactus Bowl - 1/2/16 – Tempe, AZ – vs. Cal.

 

[GoWVU]

Couple of other interesting tidbits I found, ex-pat:

"A WVU source told MetroNews it’s unlikely the Mountaineers—even by finishing 8-4 with a win Saturday at Kansas State—can play their way up to the Russell Athletic Bowl (Dec. 29 vs. ACC)."

http://wvmetronews.com/2015/11/30/notebook-mountaineers-now-third-nationally-with-29-takeaways/

"However, the Big 12’s bowls do not have to pick traditionally eligible teams (six or more wins) before they pick a five-win team. WVU could end up in the Liberty again or in the Texas if the league, the bowls and the Mountaineers work together to avoid a repeat appearance in the Liberty.

The Liberty could pick Kansas State because it is not obligated to pick a traditionally eligible team before a 5-7 team."

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/article/20151130/GZ02/151139950/1143

 

[WVex-pat in GA]

Couple of other interesting tidbits I found, ex-pat:

"A WVU source told MetroNews it’s unlikely the Mountaineers—even by finishing 8-4 with a win Saturday at Kansas State—can play their way up to the Russell Athletic Bowl (Dec. 29 vs. ACC)."

http://wvmetronews.com/2015/11/30/notebook-mountaineers-now-third-nationally-with-29-takeaways/

"However, the Big 12’s bowls do not have to pick traditionally eligible teams (six or more wins) before they pick a five-win team. WVU could end up in the Liberty again or in the Texas if the league, the bowls and the Mountaineers work together to avoid a repeat appearance in the Liberty.

The Liberty could pick Kansas State because it is not obligated to pick a traditionally eligible team before a 5-7 team."

http://www.wvgazettemail.com/article/20151130/GZ02/151139950/1143

Very interesting; this week was the first week that the Russell Athletic Bowl was not among the projections for WVU. The other catch is that the SEC has a quirk in their Bowl selection process.

Other than the top two teams in conference, the rest of the Bowl slots are "assigned" by the SEC. It seems like the conference wants the best opportunity for a "W" rather than the match up the Bowl Committee would like.

The SEC may assign Arkansas to the Liberty if K State gets the nod for the B12 slot. Would be a very intriguing match up.

 

[43rd Parallel]

There is a scenario that would put West Virginia in the Russell Bowl. It requires a Baylor win over Texas and a West Virginia win at Kansas State this week. And then ...

Oklahoma -- national semifinals
Baylor -- Sugar
Texas Christian -- Alamo

The Russell picks next and presumably would not hesitate to invite 10-2 Oklahoma State over 8-4 West Virginia.

But ...

The Russell Bowl is free to pick any eligible Big 12 team. West Virginia might look attractive because its fans will travel to Orlando (we have a track record with this bowl, which has had eight or nine other names, including Blockbuster, CarQuest, Citrus, Tangerine, Champs Sports). Also, it is not inconceivable that Oklahoma State would actually prefer a game with Texas A&M in Houston over a game with North Carolina in Orlando.

It's a long shot, I know, but stranger things have happened.

 

[GoWVU]

A few other points to consider for anyone who enjoys thinking through the bowl scenarios like I do:

1) Neither Texas Tech nor Kansas St has ever played in the Liberty Bowl.

2) TT has played 4 of its last 5 bowls within the state of Texas, including a recent appearance at the bowl in Houston in 2012. At what point does that get stale for their fanbase, and would they prefer a trip out of state? Is a potential matchup with old rival Texas A&M attractive enough to outweigh that? Driving distance from Lubbock is approximately 521 miles to Houston, 751 to Phoenix, and 797 to Memphis. The Red Raiders have played at the bowl in Houston under various names 3 times since 2000. They've played at Cactus under its previous names twice before, but the last time was nearly a decade ago in 2006.

3) Kansas St played bowls in the Phoenix area in both 2012 and 2013, including Cactus under a previous name the latter of those. Would 3 trips to the Valley of the Sun in 4 years be too much of the same thing for their fanbase? In fact, 4 straight Wildcat bowls have been in either Arizona or Texas. Would Memphis be fresher for them? Driving distance from Manhattan is approximately 571 miles to Memphis, 733 to Houston, and about 1119 to Phoenix. They have not played at the bowl in Houston since 2006.

You also have to think the conference might decide that, if anyone's travel needs to be inconvenienced slightly, the newcomer to the Big 12 should be that party in favor of the 2 founding members. I might also wonder if Liberty, as by far the most traditional of the lower Big 12 games, would therefore be the most hesitant to invite a losing team.

Pure guesswork, but I'll say Kansas St goes to Memphis with a win on Saturday. Totally unsure how it will all work out if WVU wins instead.

 

[mneilmont]

How is WV expected to travel to Arizona to play a "lower" bowl. How did they travel the last bowl game in Arizona? Not really well?

 

[dogeered_again]

From some reports I've heard from alumni who attended the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.... they didn't like their experience there. The entertainment was described as not "family friendly" and Memphis is dangerous city.

 

[43rd Parallel]

ESPN's Brandon Chatmon says a Liberty Bowl invitation to West Virginia looks unlikely. He has the Mountaineers going to the Texas Bowl, although I am not sure who wants to see a WVU rematch with Texas A&M in Houston.

 

[Low Mountains Drifter]

I don't think the bowls care near as much about attendance as they used to care. Originally, the bowls were sponsored by local "chamber of commerce type" groups comprised of local businesses and boosters and purpose was overwhelmingly to bring tourists into town to spend some money (and maybe like the area enough to return again). The TV money was a supplemental amount to make ends meet.

Now, it's all about TV and the sponsors are mostly not businesses that have any direct stake in the local tourist economy. That plus the fact teams have to pay for a certain amount of tickets even if their fans don't buy them makes the "travel factor" for teams less of a consideration than it used to be.

As far as TV matchups are concerned, I don't think the "rematch factor" or that a team very recently played in the same bowl matters as much. TV ratings for, say a WVU- A&M won't be affected much by the fact we played last year. Both team's fans will watch becausr it's their teams and everyone else will watch either because they just like football or don't have anything to better to do. a lot of those fans might not even be aware it's a "rematch" from last year.

 

[GoWVU]

That's mostly true, Drifter. I also know that for years some bowls were very concerned with attendance, while others--like the Sun--were primarily concerned with creating the most appealing TV matchups. Not sure how that might have changed recently.

The rematch/return visit factor obviously hurts some or else bowls wouldn't maneuver to avoid it. What we don't know is which bowls are most concerned with that element and which are not. Considering Liberty had an in-season rematch of Iowa St/Tulsa just a few years ago, we could reasonably infer their bowl may not be as concerned as others.

Still, I have a very hard time imagining the Texas Bowl being satisfied with a possible WVU/Texas A&M rematch when they instead could jockey for a better narrative of TT v. A&M.

 

[Woody in Helvetia]

From some reports I've heard from alumni who attended the Liberty Bowl in Memphis.... they didn't like their experience there. The entertainment was described as not "family friendly" and Memphis is dangerous city.

Memphis was a great trip last year.

 

[Woody in Helvetia]

That's mostly true, Drifter. I also know that for years some bowls were very concerned with attendance, while others--like the Sun--were primarily concerned with creating the most appealing TV matchups. Not sure how that might have changed recently.

The rematch/return visit factor obviously hurts some or else bowls wouldn't maneuver to avoid it. What we don't know is which bowls are most concerned with that element and which are not. Considering Liberty had an in-season rematch of Iowa St/Tulsa just a few years ago, we could reasonably infer their bowl may not be as concerned as others.

Still, I have a very hard time imagining the Texas Bowl being satisfied with a possible WVU/Texas A&M rematch when they instead could jockey for a better narrative of TT v. A&M.

I think they can fill the place with A&M fans - they do not need the TT fans to have a sell out.

 

[GoWVU]

Probably true, Woody, but you have to think the media attention and TV appeal are dramatically improved with both teams rather than just one.

 

[Woody in Helvetia]

Probably true, Woody, but you have to think the media attention and TV appeal are dramatically improved with both teams rather than just one.

Media ant TV appeal in Texas yes - in the other 49 states no.

 

[GoWVU]

Interesting link, with a ranking of each bowl by probability:

"Back to Beale Street? Even after West Virginia sold only about half of last year’s 8,000 allotted tickets? Bowl sources told MetroNews a return trip is most likely, even though schools and game organizers typically aim to avoid such."

http://wvmetronews.com/2015/12/02/mountaineers-bowl-destinations-lets-evaluate-liberty-leads/

 

[GoWVU]

ex-pat...Woody...anybody else...any last guesses? I'll say Cactus v. Arizona St.