Thursday in Fort Worth, Texas, TCU and West Virginia will enter their fourth matchup as Big 12 foes on different planes. As two-touchdown underdogs, the Mountaineers are in serious danger of starting 0-4 in Big 12 play for the first time.
The undefeated Horned Frogs, meanwhile, are in the thick of the playoff conversation again coming off a season in which they finished 12-1.
Why has one Big 12 newcomer thrived while the other, so far at least, has scuffled?
Below are four explanations:
Recruiting proximity
TCU coach Gary Patterson has said before that the Horned Frogs observed an immediate spike in recruiting after joining the Big 12. The Horned Frogs’ winning tradition and Metroplex location made them an intriguing option for Texas recruits. But substandard conference affiliation had always held them back with the better players. Once the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12, that was no longer a disadvantage.
West Virginia previously had a winning tradition as well. But any immediate recruiting advantage in joining the Big 12 was mitigated because of its distance from the biggest asset the Big 12 provides its other members -- access to the recruiting hotbed of Texas.
"We don’t have the manpower to be able to cover everywhere, so we made the decision (to recruit) the East Coast," said coach Dana Holgorsen, who has signed just one Texas player in three years. "We would have to take guys out of that area to send them to Texas. There is no question, I’m a huge proponent of Texas high school football, and a huge proponent of the coaches and the job that they do. (But) I think you have to be realistic in what your odds are in order to get players."
Without gaining any inroads into Texas, West Virginia’s recruiting advantage of being in a Power 5 conference has taken more time to develop.
"It wasn’t an initial advantage," Holgorsen said. "Being on the East Coast, being three hours away from Baltimore and D.C. and four hours from Philly and three hours from Cleveland and an hour from Pittsburgh -- (we had) pretty good recruiting areas, just none of them had experienced Big 12 football.
"The last three years being able to come to games has exposed them to the Big 12 and the exciting style of play the Big 12 has to offer. Now the Big 12 brand on the East Coast is recognizable and I think it’s making a difference in recruiting."
Coaching stages
Patterson and Holgorsen were in very different stages in their coaching careers in 2012.
Holgorsen was only in his second season as a head coach, somewhat still learning on the fly; Patterson had been a head coach for more than a decade. He also had the experience of maneuvering TCU through two conference changes over that span.
"It’s easier once you’ve been here," Patterson said. "It wasn't our first time making a transition of changing conferences as many times as we had. Just being able to handle the program and understand what you’re going into, having a staff together, no doubt (it helped)."
Holgorsen admitted in August that as an inexperienced head coach he was initially too focused on the offensive side of the ball, where he had cut his teeth as an offensive coordinator. Since promoting Tony Gibson to defensive coordinator and re-installing the 3-3-5, the Mountaineers have closed the gap defensively the past two years.
But Patterson’s experience seemed to help TCU adapt to the Big 12 on the field more quickly and more efficiently. The political capital he had built up at TCU allowed him to make drastic changes offensively after the 2013 season, going from a pro-style offense to a no-huddle, hurry-up attack. The roll of the dice has since paid off, as the Horned Frogs have ranked second nationally in scoring the past two seasons.
"Gary has been doing the same stuff there (defensively)," Holgorsen said. "(Their continuity) is fairly unusual. You have to have that in all three phases of the game."
Quarterbacking
Over the past two seasons, Trevone Boykin has been the best quarterback in college football. That has been TCU’s biggest advantage.
"I’m tired of seeing Boykin, I know that," Holgorsen said.
The Mountaineers have enjoyed good quarterbacking at times. But they have also had multiple starting quarterbacks in four years: Geno Smith in Year 1; Paul Millard, Ford Childress and Clint Trickett in Year 2; Trickett and Skyler Howard in Year 3; and Howard in Year 4. Only Smith finished ranked in the top half of the Big 12 in QBR (Howard is seventh at the moment this season).
Winning close games
The past two seasons, TCU is 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. West Virginia is 1-3, including a 31-30 loss to the Horned Frogs last season.
"We had identical records in Year 1 and Year 2," said Holgorsen, who pointed out their three meetings have been decided by two overtimes and last-second field goal. But "last year, they won some close games, and we lost some close games. A year ago, we were sitting here at 6-2, and we were up 10 in the fourth quarter against TCU, but they figured out a way to win.
"I think that shows how close we are. With that said, we are not finishing close games as well as they are right now."
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