Update that!! Expansion improves Big 12 chances

[WVBlue]

of reaching the CFB Championship.
Dennis Dodds of CBS clarifies information released by Bowlsby this week.



Obviously, the two current Hot Topics in CFB are Big 12 expansion and the 'pending' announcement of an ACC network.

(see LINK in the reply below) had problem posting URL

 

[WVBlue]

of reaching the CFB Championship.
Dennis Dodds of CBS clarifies information released by Bowlsby this week.



Obviously, the two current Hot Topics in CFB are Big 12 expansion and the 'pending' announcement of an ACC network.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/25577058/expansion-would-improve-big-12s-playoff-chances-by-10-15-percent

 

[coalcountry52]

Good grief, this board takes a topic and beats it like a rented mule.

 

[Buckaineer]

Can't imagine anything more impactfuctful to the future of WVU athletics than this subject. What did you want people to discuss? The weather?

 

[skygusty]

Hazy with a chance of bullshit, frontal system stalled over Norman Oklahoma brings record depression east of the Mississippi. Weather forecast will remain unchanged for the next three months. Last weeks weather forecast will therefore be rebroadcast every ten minutes.

 

[mofo]

of reaching the CFB Championship.
Dennis Dodds of CBS clarifies information released by Bowlsby this week.



Obviously, the two current Hot Topics in CFB are Big 12 expansion and the 'pending' announcement of an ACC network.

(see LINK in the reply below) had problem posting URL

meassely 4%- 5%....
is that the return on investment you all are searching for?

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

Can't imagine anything more impactfuctful to the future of WVU athletics than this subject. What did you want people to discuss? The weather?

I agree, but it would be nice if we could limit this to one thread.

 

[Buckaineer]

The "return on investment" is actually 10-15% not 4-5%. 4-5% is what happens with a CCG and 10 teams

 

[Buckaineer]

I agree, but it would be nice if we could limit this to one thread.

Not sure why, nothing else is. Also that has been attempted and also criticized--some don't want anyone talking about expansion at all. Best advice is just don't read if you aren't interested.

 

[Buckaineer]

Hazy with a chance of bullshit, frontal system stalled over Norman Oklahoma brings record depression east of the Mississippi. Weather forecast will remain unchanged for the next three months. Last weeks weather forecast will therefore be rebroadcast every ten minutes.

And is still a million times better than troll posts that add nothing.....hmmmm.

 

[coalcountry52]

Can't imagine anything more impactfuctful to the future of WVU athletics than this subject. What did you want people to discuss? The weather?

I'm sorry. I guess we need a fifteenth multi-page thread on why Cincinnati is the greatest school in history to you and anyone who disagrees sucks.

 

[dave]

Had to ignore the buckaneer fool. HE JUST NEVER EVER EVER STFU.

 

[Buckaineer]

Had to ignore the buckaneer fool. HE JUST NEVER EVER EVER STFU.

Talk about a FOOL. Tired of the Dave fool's trolling, so won't read what he posts in the future. HE JUST NEVER EVER HAS ANYTHING TO SAY-JUST TROLLS

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

Not sure why, nothing else is. Also that has been attempted and also criticized--some don't want anyone talking about expansion at all. Best advice is just don't read if you aren't interested.

Well you know me Buck, I am interested. The only reason for my suggestion is it is easier to follow instead of sifting through 6 different threads

 

[Buckaineer]

Well you know me Buck, I am interested. The only reason for my suggestion is it is easier to follow instead of sifting through 6 different threads

My point--whether its one thread or 50 people have bitched and moaned. You make one--they create a different one because what they really want is no expansion. You make 5, 10, 25--they bitch that there should only be one.

What's happening in the conference now impacts WVUs athletic department for decades if not forever--kind of important. Not sure why anyone thinks it needs to be quieted-if anything more people should be discussing it.

 

[skygusty]

I'm just waiting to hear what they decide. Seems what passes for discussion is the same points being made over and over again. Lots of opinions and predictions presented as facts. The only facts I'm really interested in now is what the Big12 decides to do, with who and when and what the long term repercussions prove to be. It is the topic that is important, and the outcome of their deliberations. The discussions on this board have little if any importance. They get repetitive and redundant and sometimes just add to the frustration of fans waiting to see what the conference is going to do. Conference realignment has been a steady and unpalatable diet for WVU fans for over a decade. WVU fans are sick and tired of other people deciding our fate and having no security. I know that when I think about us being completely surrounded by other conferences where we could have had geographic ties, where old rivals have gone and the fact that none of them want WVU as a member it gets to me a bit. While I'm grateful that we landed in the BIG12 it is frustrating that there is STILL no security with the pot constantly being stirred and discontent ever present. I think lots of people are waiting and anxious and hope to see real news posted instead of the same things being restated ad nauseum and the constant reminder that our situation is more precarious than we would like. I've given up on getting much real news here. When I read about it in the paper I'll have something concrete. Until then, I'll treat any posts on the topic as entertainment and just another way to waste a perfectly good ten minutes.

 

[coalcountry52]

My point--whether its one thread or 50 people have bitched and moaned. You make one--they create a different one because what they really want is no expansion. You make 5, 10, 25--they bitch that there should only be one.

What's happening in the conference now impacts WVUs athletic department for decades if not forever--kind of important. Not sure why anyone thinks it needs to be quieted-if anything more people should be discussing it.

Ok you win. Go to Topix, make a Big XII expansion forum and set up all topics related to it. We'll all see you there.

 

[Buckaineer]

A: People have posted real news
B: Message boards are for discussion of such things
C: This is a message board

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

My point--whether its one thread or 50 people have bitched and moaned. You make one--they create a different one because what they really want is no expansion. You make 5, 10, 25--they bitch that there should only be one.

What's happening in the conference now impacts WVUs athletic department for decades if not forever--kind of important. Not sure why anyone thinks it needs to be quieted-if anything more people should be discussing it.

I don't want to quiet anyone on it, I just want it easier to follow all the threads.

I agree, What takes place in the next few years will have a lasting impact on WVU athletics and is as big or bigger than WVU1st joining the BIG EAST, then joining the BIG12. It could forever impact if WVU remains a power program, or relegated as a second tier athletic program.

 

[Buckaineer]

Here is some "quieting" information--at least it should be from FOX:

excerpt:

Dissecting the numbers on how expansion would benefit the Big 12




CBSSports.com reported this week per a source that Navigate determined the league's current playoff chances to be 62 percent. If that's the case, we can apply the aforementioned numbers accordingly.



-- With 10 teams and a championship game, playoff chances go from 62 percent to 66 percent.



-- With 12 teams, nine conference games and a title game, playoff chances increase to 73 percent.



-- In the same scenario but with eight league games instead of nine, playoff chances increase to 75 percent.

In the end, that projected 21 percent growth for 12 teams/eight games is even higher than any previously reported number and has to be pretty eye-opening to league officials.

http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...nce-expansion-football-playoff-chances-050616

 

[skygusty]

Curious numbers that raise some questions. If the BIG12 currently has a 62% chance of getting in the playoffs, what are the current odds that the other P5 conferences have of getting in the playoffs? You would expect that if the odds of the BIG12 getting in actually do increase with the suggested changes vis a vis expansion scenarios, then one or more other conferences have to have their chances go down with each iteration of scenario. Or if somehow the odds of the BIG12 getting in have no effect on the other conferences chances, (not likely) then hopefully the Presidents and AD's are at least asking what percentages have been calculated for the other conferences and how they compare. Do we actually end up having a better chance than the ACC and the PAC, or are our odds better but still lagging? I'd like to see how the odds change or don't change for other conferences and where we stack up. If I were deciding, it would be nice to see that the odds improve, but I'd still want to know how we stack up against the competition.
So they run 40,000 simulations, 62% of the time the Big12 is in the playoffs right now.
Wouldn't we like to know what the numbers are when they run them for the other conferences? It might affect how much faith I placed in their analysis. If we were all of equal stature, then each conference should have an 80% chance (4 slots for 5 conferences) I can't see the odds for the BIG12 going up if there aren't one or more other conferences whose odds go down, and I would want an explanation for how that mechanism worked. Hopefully Gee and the rest will have some statisticians on speed dial to get down in the weeds of the methodology.

 

[Buckaineer]

From what they've told us the researchers ran simulations for 10, 12,14 and 16 member conferences.

After running every combination for each size 40,000 times with the differing levels of competition possible,
The results show a 12 team, 8 game conference playing a CCG would be the best format in order to increase odds of making the playoff.

At 62% the BIG 12 has a far lower chance of making the playoffs than a 12 team league playing 9 conference teams which would be at 73%- which is where the PAC 12 is now. Dennis Dodd asked how 62% compared to the other conferences, and the researcher he spoke to said that that it was clear that it was such a disadvantage that it showed the BIG 12 must expand.

Not sure why people are trying to find ways to twist that around- it's clear without a doubt from the data and it wasn't taken from a two year sample but a ten year sample.

 

[skygusty]

So asking questions is twisting things around?

If the SEC and the BIG have a 100% chance of getting in, that means that the other 3 conferences, if they are dead equal have 2 chances in 3 or a 66% chance of getting in.
If the SEC has a 100 percent chance of getting in and the other 4 are dead equal, then those 4 have 3 chances in 4 or a 75% chance of getting in.

All the odds across 5 conferences have to add to 400 (5X80 if they all have equal opportunity and the universe is limited to the P5 conferences) If the SEC has a 100 percent chance then the rest have a 3 in 4 chance or 75% of making the playoffs. 100+(4X75) = 400. If the SEC has a 95% chance then the other 4 conferences have a 76.25% chance if they are all equal 305/4. So somebody has to illustrate how the odds for one or more other conferences goes down if the BIG12 adds a CCG, how they go down more if the BIG12 adds two teams, etc. The odds have to add to 400, The point is, the opportunities are finite (4), you can't boost the chances of one conference getting in without reducing the chances of another. I'd just like to see how adding teams to the BIG12 would decrease the chances of another conference of getting in the playoffs. Because the system is closed and can only contain 4 teams you can't change the chances of one league without changing the chances of all the rest.

Even if they are calculating that 8 conferences have a chance of some sort, the odds add to 400. 4 spots for 8 conferences means a 50% chance if they are all equal. More likely the SEC could have a 95% chance and the AAC could have a 5% chance. All the odds will still add to 400. So are we gaining on the ones above us or just improving our odds at the expense of the conferences below us?

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

So asking questions is twisting things around?

If the SEC and the BIG have a 100% chance of getting in, that means that the other 3 conferences, if they are dead equal have 2 chances in 3 or a 66% chance of getting in.
If the SEC has a 100 percent chance of getting in and the other 4 are dead equal, then those 4 have 3 chances in 4 or a 75% chance of getting in.

All the odds across 5 conferences have to add to 400 (5X80 if they all have equal opportunity and the universe is limited to the P5 conferences) If the SEC has a 100 percent chance then the rest have a 3 in 4 chance or 75% of making the playoffs. 100+(4X75) = 400. If the SEC has a 95% chance then the other 4 conferences have a 76.25% chance if they are all equal 305/4. So somebody has to illustrate how the odds for one or more other conferences goes down if the BIG12 adds a CCG, how they go down more if the BIG12 adds two teams, etc. The odds have to add to 400, The point is, the opportunities are finite (4), you can't boost the chances of one conference getting in without reducing the chances of another. I'd just like to see how adding teams to the BIG12 would decrease the chances of another conference of getting in the playoffs. Because the system is closed and can only contain 4 teams you can't change the chances of one league without changing the chances of all the rest.

Even if they are calculating that 8 conferences have a chance of some sort, the odds add to 400. 4 spots for 8 conferences means a 50% chance if they are all equal. More likely the SEC could have a 95% chance and the AAC could have a 5% chance. All the odds will still add to 400. So are we gaining on the ones above us or just improving our odds at the expense of the conferences below us?

Those are great questions, and ones I would like to see answered as well. The problem with all of this, is the inability to factor in bias opinions into the processes. For example an SEC team with the same amount of losses probably has a better chance of making the playoffs as a PAC 12 team, even if the SOS for the PAC team is stronger?

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

Being a successful player in a competitive field, I doubt that the researching companies will ever divulge their exact methodology to the public. With their record for accuracy I can't really blame them. I would love to know those answers too. What if we all promised not to tell anyone if they shared it with us?

 

[Mountaineer Steve]

Being a successful player in a competitive field, I doubt that the researching companies will ever divulge their exact methodology to the public. With their record for accuracy I can't really blame them. I would love to know those answers too. What if we all promised not to tell anyone if they shared it with us?

Not to poop on your post, but Navigate Research is the same research company that helped back the BIG East in 2011-2012, and the reason they turned down a large offer from ESPN. After that ESPN teamed up with ACC to finish the BIG East once and for all.

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

Not to poop on your post, but Navigate Research is the same research company that helped back the BIG East in 2011-2012, and the reason they turned down a large offer from ESPN. After that ESPN teamed up with ACC to finish the BIG East once and for all.

As they say, "You'll have that!"

 

[Cuyahoga Falls Eers]

A: People have posted real news
B: Message boards are for discussion of such things
C: This is a message board

Great list.

I would only add: It helps us get to opening day of football season. Nearly 4 months is just too long to live without football. In my America, there's nothing sports between basketball and football.

 

[Round Hillbilly]

maybe they can have that firm run 40,000 simulations of what's going to happen when the league decides not to expand and the 2 big boys continue their pissin match...

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

Yeah, I'm sure the Big 12 is doomed no matter what they do. WVU should simply drop football now to head off the inevitable.

 

[topdecktiger]

Not to poop on your post, but Navigate Research is the same research company that helped back the BIG East in 2011-2012, and the reason they turned down a large offer from ESPN. After that ESPN teamed up with ACC to finish the BIG East once and for all.

Somebody else posted this article. This makes a little more sense (or less, depending on your point of view). It says:

First, it's important to note that Navigate did not base its study solely on the two seasons played so far with a four-team playoff. Its data is based on the past 10 seasons.
http://www.foxsports.com/college-fo...nce-expansion-football-playoff-chances-050616

Well, that's the fly in the ointment. Navigate went back 10 years, but the playoffs only go back 2 years, so they were using data from the BCS era.

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

Valid point, but as of now I really don't care what they vote for or against. If Texas wants to destroy their little Kingdom to become an also ran somewhere else, well good for them. Let's see them face Alabama or Ohio State every year and have their asses annually handed to them. Mountaineer football will survive somewhere.

 

[topdecktiger]

Valid point, but as of now I really don't care what they vote for or against. If Texas wants to destroy their little Kingdom to become an also ran somewhere else, well good for them. Let's see them face Alabama or Ohio State every year and have their asses annually handed to them. Mountaineer football will survive somewhere.

That's the thing though. Texas doesn't really have to face Alabama or Ohio St. The problem is not Texas moving. It's that most of the other schools can't. Texas has that leverage, and they are using it. The key is that Texas can get in the Big Ten, Pac 12, or SEC if worst comes to worst. Texas has a lifeboat. Kansas St doesn't. Iowa St doesn't. So, Texas can squeeze those other schools.

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

That's the thing though. Texas doesn't really have to face Alabama or Ohio St. The problem is not Texas moving. It's that most of the other schools can't. Texas has that leverage, and they are using it. The key is that Texas can get in the Big Ten, Pac 12, or SEC if worst comes to worst. Texas has a lifeboat. Kansas St doesn't. Iowa St doesn't. So, Texas can squeeze those other schools.

But on the other hand, Texas' president, A D and coaches are committed to make UT a football power again. Then the current setup has the same effect on them as it does any other conference champion. Fewer data points to consider and one less game played. The first time that happened Texas would likely be saying, "OK, here's who we're bring in..."

 

[topdecktiger]

But on the other hand, Texas' president, A D and coaches are committed to make UT a football power again. Then the current setup has the same effect on them as it does any other conference champion. Fewer data points to consider and one less game played. The first time that happened Texas would likely be saying, "OK, here's who we're bring in..."

There is also the flip side that you need money to be a football power, and dropping the LHN and expanding with mid-majors isn't exactly a sure-fire recipe for more money. Plus, Texas has the two examples of Oklahoma getting in, and TCU/Baylor getting left out. I can definitely tell you which camp Texas thinks it's in.

Plus, if all we're talking about is the 13th data point, they can get that now without expanding.

 

[michaelwalkerbr]

There is also the flip side that you need money to be a football power, and dropping the LHN and expanding with mid-majors isn't exactly a sure-fire recipe for more money. Plus, Texas has the two examples of Oklahoma getting in, and TCU/Baylor getting left out. I can definitely tell you which camp Texas thinks it's in.

Plus, if all we're talking about is the 13th data point, they can get that now without expanding.

All true, but Oklahoma had the luxury of a cushion for the inevitable drop after the CC games in the other conferences. The round robin schedule is tough enough without having to beat teams like Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor twice guaranteed. I believe you disagree, but I concur with the studies as long as expansion is with football strong teams in areas of high population not currently covered by the Big 12 footprint.

Ideally any newbies start out in the middle of the pack instead of the bottom or the top. Obviously the B1G went strictly with population density in Maryland and Rutgers. It certainly helped no one's SOS.