We know that media “experts” and fans get it wrong about how college stars will do in the NFL.
What about NFL analytics who are paid millions of $$$ to help their teams make the draft choices?
I choose the 2017 draft because 4-year contracts with 5th-year options are standard in the NFL for First Round draft picks.
HALF the 2017 first round draft picks are not with their original team for the 2021 season! Even the analytics do no better than a coin toss.
Garrett two Pro Bowls and received first-team All-Pro honors in 2020 and still is with the Browns.
Mitchell Trubisky faltered to free agent with Bills by 2021
Solomon Thomas a free agent with the Raiders by 2021
Leonard Fournette by 2020 Jags couldn’t get any team to make a trade for him so he signed as a free agent with Tampa Bay
Corey Davis by 2021 was dropped by the Titans and went to the Jets but did get a 3-year contract
Jamal Adams made Pro Bowl twice, was team captain in 2018, demanded a trade and was sent to the Seahawks in a 4-player deal.
Mike Williams still is with the Chargers for the 2021 season.
Christian McCaffrey in 2020 signed a 4-year extension with the Panthers that makes him the highest paid running back in NFL history
John Ross in 2021 became a free agent with the Giants.
Patrick Mahomes in 2018 became the first Chief named NFL MVP, in 2019 was named Super Bowl MVP of Super Bowl champ Chiefs, in 2020 got a $503 million contract extension.
Marshon Lattimore was a steady performer every season for the Saints, but was arrested in March 2021 and charged with having a stolen handgun. The case has not been resolved.
Deshaun Watson led the league in passing yards in 2020 and still is with the Texans.
Haason Reddick began a free agent with the Panthers for 2021.
Derek Barnett played with the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl champs, had an injury-shorted 2018 season and still is with the Eagles.
Malik Hooker after an injury-plagued career is a free agent the Cowboys are considering.
Marlon Humphrey still is with the Ravens with a 5-year contract extension.
Jonathan Allen still is with the Redskins, or whatever Washington is called in 2021.
Adoree' Jackson is a free agent with the Giants for 2021.
O.J. Howard still is with the Bucs despite being on injured reserve 3 of his 4 seasons.
Garett Bolles, despite being penalized for holding more than any other NFL player for 3 seasons, has a 4-year extension and still is with the Broncos.
Jarrad Davis became a free agent with the Jets for 2021.
Charles Harris was traded to the Falcons in 2020 for a 7th round draft pick.
Evan Engram still is with the Giants despite injuries and untimely dropped passes.
Gareon Conley was traded to the Texans in 2019 for a 3rd round draft pick and is a free agent in 2021.
Jabrill Peppers in 2019 was traded to the Giants.
Takkarist McKinley was claimed off waivers by the Raiders in November 2020.
Tre'Davious White still is with the Bills with a 4-year contract extension and has missed only 2 games.
Taco Charlton after only 2 weeks in 2019 was released by the Cowboys, claimed off waivers by the Dolphins, then was waived again and signed by the Chiefs.
David Njoku still is with the Browns despite being on injured reserve 2 of his 4 seasons.
T.J. Watt’s brothers J.J. Watt (Cardinals) and Derek Watt (Steelers) mean 3 brothers in one family made it to the NFL. T.J. still is with the Steelers.
Reuben Foster was released by the 49ers in 2018 over his crime rap sheet, the Redskins took a chance and signed him in November 2018 but injuries dogged him in 2020.
Ryan Ramczyk still is with the Saints and doing well
See, it's not that easy making NFL draft choices . . . unless you're fan who knows better than the experts.
Round
Pick
Overall Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
1
1
1
Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett
DE
Texas A&M
1
2
2
Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
North Carolina
1
3
3
San Francisco 49ers
Solomon Thomas
DE
Stanford
1
4
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette
RB
LSU
1
5
5
Tennessee Titans
Corey Davis
WR
Western Michigan
1
6
6
New York Jets
Jamal Adams
S
LSU
1
7
7
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams
WR
Clemson
1
8
8
Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Stanford
1
9
9
Cincinnati Bengals
John Ross
WR
Washington
1
10
10
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
QB
Texas Tech
1
11
11
New Orleans Saints
Marshon Lattimore
CB
Ohio State
1
12
12
Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson
QB
Clemson
1
13
13
Arizona Cardinals
Haason Reddick
LB
Temple
1
14
14
Philadelphia Eagles
Derek Barnett
DE
Tennessee
1
15
15
Indianapolis Colts
Malik Hooker
S
Ohio State
1
16
16
Baltimore Ravens
Marlon Humphrey
CB
Alabama
1
17
17
Washington
Jonathan Allen
DL
Alabama
1
18
18
Tennessee Titans
Adoree' Jackson
CB
Southern California
1
19
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O.J. Howard
TE
Alabama
1
20
20
Denver Broncos
Garett Bolles
OT
Utah
1
21
21
Detroit Lions
Jarrad Davis
LB
Florida
1
22
22
Miami Dolphins
Charles Harris
DE/OLB
Missouri
1
23
23
New York Giants
Evan Engram
TE
Mississippi
1
24
24
Oakland Raiders
Gareon Conley
CB
Ohio State
1
25
25
Cleveland Browns
Jabrill Peppers
S
Michigan
1
26
26
Atlanta Falcons
Takkarist McKinley
OLB
UCLA
1
27
27
Buffalo Bills
Tre'Davious White
CB
LSU
1
28
28
Dallas Cowboys
Taco Charlton
DE
Michigan
1
29
29
Cleveland Browns
David Njoku
TE
Miami
1
30
30
Pittsburgh Steelers
T.J. Watt
OLB
Wisconsin
1
31
31
San Francisco 49ers
Reuben Foster
MLB
Alabama
1
32
32
New Orleans Saints
Ryan Ramczyk
OT
Wi
What about NFL analytics who are paid millions of $$$ to help their teams make the draft choices?
I choose the 2017 draft because 4-year contracts with 5th-year options are standard in the NFL for First Round draft picks.
HALF the 2017 first round draft picks are not with their original team for the 2021 season! Even the analytics do no better than a coin toss.
Garrett two Pro Bowls and received first-team All-Pro honors in 2020 and still is with the Browns.
Mitchell Trubisky faltered to free agent with Bills by 2021
Solomon Thomas a free agent with the Raiders by 2021
Leonard Fournette by 2020 Jags couldn’t get any team to make a trade for him so he signed as a free agent with Tampa Bay
Corey Davis by 2021 was dropped by the Titans and went to the Jets but did get a 3-year contract
Jamal Adams made Pro Bowl twice, was team captain in 2018, demanded a trade and was sent to the Seahawks in a 4-player deal.
Mike Williams still is with the Chargers for the 2021 season.
Christian McCaffrey in 2020 signed a 4-year extension with the Panthers that makes him the highest paid running back in NFL history
John Ross in 2021 became a free agent with the Giants.
Patrick Mahomes in 2018 became the first Chief named NFL MVP, in 2019 was named Super Bowl MVP of Super Bowl champ Chiefs, in 2020 got a $503 million contract extension.
Marshon Lattimore was a steady performer every season for the Saints, but was arrested in March 2021 and charged with having a stolen handgun. The case has not been resolved.
Deshaun Watson led the league in passing yards in 2020 and still is with the Texans.
Haason Reddick began a free agent with the Panthers for 2021.
Derek Barnett played with the 2017 Eagles Super Bowl champs, had an injury-shorted 2018 season and still is with the Eagles.
Malik Hooker after an injury-plagued career is a free agent the Cowboys are considering.
Marlon Humphrey still is with the Ravens with a 5-year contract extension.
Jonathan Allen still is with the Redskins, or whatever Washington is called in 2021.
Adoree' Jackson is a free agent with the Giants for 2021.
O.J. Howard still is with the Bucs despite being on injured reserve 3 of his 4 seasons.
Garett Bolles, despite being penalized for holding more than any other NFL player for 3 seasons, has a 4-year extension and still is with the Broncos.
Jarrad Davis became a free agent with the Jets for 2021.
Charles Harris was traded to the Falcons in 2020 for a 7th round draft pick.
Evan Engram still is with the Giants despite injuries and untimely dropped passes.
Gareon Conley was traded to the Texans in 2019 for a 3rd round draft pick and is a free agent in 2021.
Jabrill Peppers in 2019 was traded to the Giants.
Takkarist McKinley was claimed off waivers by the Raiders in November 2020.
Tre'Davious White still is with the Bills with a 4-year contract extension and has missed only 2 games.
Taco Charlton after only 2 weeks in 2019 was released by the Cowboys, claimed off waivers by the Dolphins, then was waived again and signed by the Chiefs.
David Njoku still is with the Browns despite being on injured reserve 2 of his 4 seasons.
T.J. Watt’s brothers J.J. Watt (Cardinals) and Derek Watt (Steelers) mean 3 brothers in one family made it to the NFL. T.J. still is with the Steelers.
Reuben Foster was released by the 49ers in 2018 over his crime rap sheet, the Redskins took a chance and signed him in November 2018 but injuries dogged him in 2020.
Ryan Ramczyk still is with the Saints and doing well
See, it's not that easy making NFL draft choices . . . unless you're fan who knows better than the experts.
Round
Pick
Overall Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
1
1
1
Cleveland Browns
Myles Garrett
DE
Texas A&M
1
2
2
Chicago Bears
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
North Carolina
1
3
3
San Francisco 49ers
Solomon Thomas
DE
Stanford
1
4
4
Jacksonville Jaguars
Leonard Fournette
RB
LSU
1
5
5
Tennessee Titans
Corey Davis
WR
Western Michigan
1
6
6
New York Jets
Jamal Adams
S
LSU
1
7
7
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams
WR
Clemson
1
8
8
Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey
RB
Stanford
1
9
9
Cincinnati Bengals
John Ross
WR
Washington
1
10
10
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes
QB
Texas Tech
1
11
11
New Orleans Saints
Marshon Lattimore
CB
Ohio State
1
12
12
Houston Texans
Deshaun Watson
QB
Clemson
1
13
13
Arizona Cardinals
Haason Reddick
LB
Temple
1
14
14
Philadelphia Eagles
Derek Barnett
DE
Tennessee
1
15
15
Indianapolis Colts
Malik Hooker
S
Ohio State
1
16
16
Baltimore Ravens
Marlon Humphrey
CB
Alabama
1
17
17
Washington
Jonathan Allen
DL
Alabama
1
18
18
Tennessee Titans
Adoree' Jackson
CB
Southern California
1
19
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
O.J. Howard
TE
Alabama
1
20
20
Denver Broncos
Garett Bolles
OT
Utah
1
21
21
Detroit Lions
Jarrad Davis
LB
Florida
1
22
22
Miami Dolphins
Charles Harris
DE/OLB
Missouri
1
23
23
New York Giants
Evan Engram
TE
Mississippi
1
24
24
Oakland Raiders
Gareon Conley
CB
Ohio State
1
25
25
Cleveland Browns
Jabrill Peppers
S
Michigan
1
26
26
Atlanta Falcons
Takkarist McKinley
OLB
UCLA
1
27
27
Buffalo Bills
Tre'Davious White
CB
LSU
1
28
28
Dallas Cowboys
Taco Charlton
DE
Michigan
1
29
29
Cleveland Browns
David Njoku
TE
Miami
1
30
30
Pittsburgh Steelers
T.J. Watt
OLB
Wisconsin
1
31
31
San Francisco 49ers
Reuben Foster
MLB
Alabama
1
32
32
New Orleans Saints
Ryan Ramczyk
OT
Wi