Thank You Neal Brown, you just bought my G80 performance downpipes

Volatility

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Jun 27, 2018
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WVU was only picked to win by 2 points. Looking at VT schedule in detail, their strength of schedule was extremely weak. While WVU's was pretty good. I felt like Vegas was looking more at Wins and Losses, then the strength of schedule or circumstantial instances...

I had a very strong feeling WVU would win and do so in a convincing fashion, so Ive never bet on a sports game before, but I took out $3k and made my way to the casino.

For some reason they would only let me bet $2200, not sure why.... Its not like I was trying to bet $3k on a parlay that would pay out $50k...

Honestly, whats the fkn point in having a casino if you dont take bets. My guess is they intentionally keep it low because they will get a different type of sports better... and not one of the better kind... It kinda rubs me the wrong way, so I think I may open an account online so I can at least bet $5k if I want...

When I approached the counter, the woman initially couldnt find my game. After a few mins she finally found it... Saying usually they only take bets on the day of the game, which I thought was strange. I mean, if I cant bet on a game thats tomorrow, thats just weird...

Then when she found it, she said how much would you like to bet. I said $3k.... and you would have thought I said $3mill... She asked for ID confirmation which I gave her, then she took my card behind a door without asking me permission. The ENTIRE process was shady as fk, and this was at Mardi Gras Casino... She had to get approval for the bet, which after 5mins of waiting her manager finally gave her the thumbs up. Then when she input my bet, the computer recalculated and would no longer accept a $3k bet and would only accept a $2200 bet... I mean, I know its not the Bellagio, but its $3k.... $3k on a approx 190% payout... If the casino is that hard up, I imagine they have some shady business practices and shty customer service...

I dont bet often, Ive never bet on a sports game before in my life. I made 1 futures bet, and this one.... Thats it... What are the best platforms online for sports betting? The most real-time spreads, highest max, and no issues when it comes time to cashin and withdrawl?? Anyone have any thoughts or recommendations, experiences, etc??

I def wont be going back there again... Unless its to play roulette(I only pick Red or Black, and double my losses, so I switch the odds in my favor because Im betting Ill win 1 out of group of 9. So Im not betting against a single bet, Im betting Ill win 1 out of 9. Ive never lost with that strategy, I always walk out with $800-$1500 in a 2-3 hour stretch. I only go when my brother comes in from Cali around the holidays. My career is like betting, so I dont do it much... BUT..... when I do... I dont want shty mins, limitations, or sketchy business practices..

What a game tho! Its great to see us finally play a full game! Obviously still a few things to clean up and improve, but def needed this one before UT... Which will be a tough one... Its good to see them get a W.... You could sense the team & staff really needed & wanted it after being so close...

LETS GO
 

Op2

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Mar 16, 2014
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WVU was only picked to win by 2 points. Looking at VT schedule in detail, their strength of schedule was extremely weak. While WVU's was pretty good. I felt like Vegas was looking more at Wins and Losses, then the strength of schedule or circumstantial instances...

I had a very strong feeling WVU would win and do so in a convincing fashion, so Ive never bet on a sports game before, but I took out $3k and made my way to the casino.

For some reason they would only let me bet $2200, not sure why.... Its not like I was trying to bet $3k on a parlay that would pay out $50k...

Honestly, whats the fkn point in having a casino if you dont take bets. My guess is they intentionally keep it low because they will get a different type of sports better... and not one of the better kind... It kinda rubs me the wrong way, so I think I may open an account online so I can at least bet $5k if I want...

When I approached the counter, the woman initially couldnt find my game. After a few mins she finally found it... Saying usually they only take bets on the day of the game, which I thought was strange. I mean, if I cant bet on a game thats tomorrow, thats just weird...

Then when she found it, she said how much would you like to bet. I said $3k.... and you would have thought I said $3mill... She asked for ID confirmation which I gave her, then she took my card behind a door without asking me permission. The ENTIRE process was shady as fk, and this was at Mardi Gras Casino... She had to get approval for the bet, which after 5mins of waiting her manager finally gave her the thumbs up. Then when she input my bet, the computer recalculated and would no longer accept a $3k bet and would only accept a $2200 bet... I mean, I know its not the Bellagio, but its $3k.... $3k on a approx 190% payout... If the casino is that hard up, I imagine they have some shady business practices and shty customer service...

I dont bet often, Ive never bet on a sports game before in my life. I made 1 futures bet, and this one.... Thats it... What are the best platforms online for sports betting? The most real-time spreads, highest max, and no issues when it comes time to cashin and withdrawl?? Anyone have any thoughts or recommendations, experiences, etc??

I def wont be going back there again... Unless its to play roulette(I only pick Red or Black, and double my losses, so I switch the odds in my favor because Im betting Ill win 1 out of group of 9. So Im not betting against a single bet, Im betting Ill win 1 out of 9. Ive never lost with that strategy, I always walk out with $800-$1500 in a 2-3 hour stretch. I only go when my brother comes in from Cali around the holidays. My career is like betting, so I dont do it much... BUT..... when I do... I dont want shty mins, limitations, or sketchy business practices..

What a game tho! Its great to see us finally play a full game! Obviously still a few things to clean up and improve, but def needed this one before UT... Which will be a tough one... Its good to see them get a W.... You could sense the team & staff really needed & wanted it after being so close...

LETS GO
I'm glad you won but do yourself a favor and never bet in a casino again.
 

Op2

All-Conference
Gold Member
Mar 16, 2014
7,168
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Do you have any suggestions for optimal online platforms?
When I said never bet in a casino again I didn't mean bet elsewhere instead, rather I meant don't bet. I say that because you come off as delusional about your chances of winning and that can lead to trouble.

The odds are never in your favor when you play roulette no matter what your strategy is. If you've been winning then consider yourself lucky up to now and stop playing before you lose it all back.
 
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Volatility

Senior
Jun 27, 2018
873
616
153
Charleston WV
www.equitysciences.com
When I said never bet in a casino again I didn't mean bet elsewhere instead, rather I meant don't bet. I say that because you come off as delusional about your chances of winning and that can lead to trouble.

The odds are never in your favor when you play roulette no matter what your strategy is. If you've been winning then consider yourself lucky up to now and stop playing before you lose it all back.
Delusional is a strong word, and completely opposite of my personality. Im probably the most emotionally detached logical analytical person you would meet. Ive built a career out of it in fact, when 93% of people fail and cannot do my job, one in which I excel, due to their inability to detach their emotions from decision processes, know how to identify exploitable patterns, or how to develop dynamic strategic solutions for constantly evolving problems.

Ive played Roulette with that strategy approx 12-14 times the past 12-14 years, and have never lost. I only go to the casino around the holidays when my brother visits from Cali... He likes to play poker, so Ill hit the Roulette table for a couple hours while hes reading faces... If I had an betting addiction that would have been an issue long ago when I figured out why the emotionally excited suckers lose and how the boring strategy wins... You switch the probabilities to be in your favor, and that is the primary factor in identifying risks/reward(risks = plural, because there are more risks factors in addition to the amount of potential loss, such as strategic, conceptual, application, environmental, or randomness). Instead of betting that youll win on a single spin(which is completely random on every spin), in which there is approx a 47.3% odds that youll win, Ill bet that Ill win at least 1 out of 9 spins. So Im playing against a group of spins and not a single spin, which is what the vast majority of people do when they play. I only play games or bet on things where I identify a high probability of success. I dont gamble as a past time, bet high values, have a "need" to win, nor do I go there often..

I was also right on my other 2 side picks. Kansas beat Duke by more than 7.5 points, and Baylor Beat IowaSt by more than 2.5 points. IN which cases spread was more about wins/losses and not the strength of schedule, or strength of previous opponents schedule.

Spreads are more inaccurate in the first 4-6 games in every season, because some factors are weighed more heavily than others, and there is also brand/staff/historical/travel/matchup biases which find its way into the spread.

So If I do bet again in the future, I likely wont go beyond the 5th-6th week, unless I see an obviously bad spread. There is a way to live a balanced life. To not succumb to the traps of a weak mind, and to do so in a logical analytically heightened responsible manner. My career is built around identifying exploitable patterns & probabilities, so I get enough of that with my day job, but if I see easy pickings, Ill take a measured risk for the fruits of reward and a lil fun... I think its also relative to how much someone is betting. Keep it less than 1% of your net income, and if you lose, you lose... Dont go chasing the dragon... Which is when emotion rises above logic..

I agree with your cautious perspective though, living a balanced life is a must to be maintained, and addictive tendencies need to be countered and proactively mitigated. So for many, most I would say, your perspective is absolutely a logical and applicable one. I absolutely dont recommend it unless you meet certain criteria.. So its def not for everyone.

Also, Id much rather have folks like yourself in my life, than those who nurture irresponsible behaviors. That said, many vital choices in life carry risks & rewards, so there are many "bets" in life and the biggest rewards come from the greatest risks. The best we can do is for them to be measured, mitigated, & identified.

chEERS!
 

Op2

All-Conference
Gold Member
Mar 16, 2014
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Delusional is a strong word, and completely opposite of my personality. Im probably the most emotionally detached logical analytical person you would meet. Ive built a career out of it in fact, when 93% of people fail and cannot do my job, one in which I excel, due to their inability to detach their emotions from decision processes, know how to identify exploitable patterns, or how to develop dynamic strategic solutions for constantly evolving problems.

Ive played Roulette with that strategy approx 12-14 times the past 12-14 years, and have never lost. I only go to the casino around the holidays when my brother visits from Cali... He likes to play poker, so Ill hit the Roulette table for a couple hours while hes reading faces... If I had an betting addiction that would have been an issue long ago when I figured out why the emotionally excited suckers lose and how the boring strategy wins... You switch the probabilities to be in your favor, and that is the primary factor in identifying risks/reward(risks = plural, because there are more risks factors in addition to the amount of potential loss, such as strategic, conceptual, application, environmental, or randomness). Instead of betting that youll win on a single spin(which is completely random on every spin), in which there is approx a 47.3% odds that youll win, Ill bet that Ill win at least 1 out of 9 spins. So Im playing against a group of spins and not a single spin, which is what the vast majority of people do when they play. I only play games or bet on things where I identify a high probability of success. I dont gamble as a past time, bet high values, have a "need" to win, nor do I go there often..

I was also right on my other 2 side picks. Kansas beat Duke by more than 7.5 points, and Baylor Beat IowaSt by more than 2.5 points. IN which cases spread was more about wins/losses and not the strength of schedule, or strength of previous opponents schedule.

Spreads are more inaccurate in the first 4-6 games in every season, because some factors are weighed more heavily than others, and there is also brand/staff/historical/travel/matchup biases which find its way into the spread.

So If I do bet again in the future, I likely wont go beyond the 5th-6th week, unless I see an obviously bad spread. There is a way to live a balanced life. To not succumb to the traps of a weak mind, and to do so in a logical analytically heightened responsible manner. My career is built around identifying exploitable patterns & probabilities, so I get enough of that with my day job, but if I see easy pickings, Ill take a measured risk for the fruits of reward and a lil fun... I think its also relative to how much someone is betting. Keep it less than 1% of your net income, and if you lose, you lose... Dont go chasing the dragon... Which is when emotion rises above logic..

I agree with your cautious perspective though, living a balanced life is a must to be maintained, and addictive tendencies need to be countered and proactively mitigated. So for many, most I would say, your perspective is absolutely a logical and applicable one. I absolutely dont recommend it unless you meet certain criteria.. So its def not for everyone.

Also, Id much rather have folks like yourself in my life, than those who nurture irresponsible behaviors. That said, many vital choices in life carry risks & rewards, so there are many "bets" in life and the biggest rewards come from the greatest risks. The best we can do is for them to be measured, mitigated, & identified.

chEERS!
I have two responses to that.

First, I get the being emotionally detached makes you less likely to be delusional, however knowing that you're emotionally attached and less likely to be delusional can ironically in turn make you complacent on the matter and in turn more likely to be delusional. In other words, it can make you delusional about your capacity to become delusional. Anyone can be fooled. Famous physicist and all around interesting guy Richard Feynman had a quote that goes "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool."

Next, re. roulette, I'm glad you've won in the past but there simply is not a strategy to put the odds in your favor (assuming the game is fair and there's no cheating happening). I don't know the specifics of your strategy, but if it depends on you not losing in 9 spins, then know that there is about a 3 in 1,000 chance that you will lose 9 spins in a row (if there's an 18 in 38 chance of winning any single spin).

Roulette is pretty simple mathematically but even if you don't know a lot about math, just realizing there's a casino game that's been around forever ought to tell you it's extremely likely that you can't put the odds in your favor because if that were possible, people would have figured it out and done it long ago and the casino would have dropped the game because they'd be losing their rear ends. The casinos only have games where the odds are in their favor. That's the whole point.

There is one casino game that you can put the odds in your favor as the game goes along and that is counting cards at blackjack, but if the casino catches you doing that they're allowed to throw you out of the casino.
 

Volatility

Senior
Jun 27, 2018
873
616
153
Charleston WV
www.equitysciences.com
Its true Roulette has been around for a long long time, because there are countless sucker bets on the board. People are inherently attracted to that "Lottery Ticket" 35*Bet payout so most will bet numbers hoping to win the large payout..

3 in 1000, thats far better odds than counting cards at Blackjack. Which I believe only barely puts the odds in the counters favor.

IN both games however player outcome is not just about how often or your odds of winning, but how strategic you are with your betting amounts. So there are two variables one of which you control. The second is where you can shift the probabilities in your favor that you'll have a positive outcome when you leave the table. You cant change the probabilities of your odds to win per spin or hand basis, but you can control how much you win and lose per spin or hand, and how those wins negate previous losses.

Ultimately I dont play or bet frequently, and when I do I do so logically and responsibly. As long as you are financially & mentally stable, and play responsibly, well within your means, I dont see anything wrong with betting for responsible adults.

Sure the per hand or per spin odds are weighted towards the house, but Roulette and Blackjack, esp when certain strategies are deployed are far better then the masses who blow money stuffing it into the machines... I mean, there is a reason why Lottery is so successful. Human nature is attracted to that massive win, even when they know their odds of winning are almost zero. I could easily argue my method is far more logical than the millions who play powerball every week. Ultimately, its just for a bit of fun, and shouldnt be used as a source or hope of income.
 

Op2

All-Conference
Gold Member
Mar 16, 2014
7,168
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388
Its true Roulette has been around for a long long time, because there are countless sucker bets on the board. People are inherently attracted to that "Lottery Ticket" 35*Bet payout so most will bet numbers hoping to win the large payout..

3 in 1000, thats far better odds than counting cards at Blackjack. Which I believe only barely puts the odds in the counters favor.

IN both games however player outcome is not just about how often or your odds of winning, but how strategic you are with your betting amounts. So there are two variables one of which you control. The second is where you can shift the probabilities in your favor that you'll have a positive outcome when you leave the table. You cant change the probabilities of your odds to win per spin or hand basis, but you can control how much you win and lose per spin or hand, and how those wins negate previous losses.

Ultimately I dont play or bet frequently, and when I do I do so logically and responsibly. As long as you are financially & mentally stable, and play responsibly, well within your means, I dont see anything wrong with betting for responsible adults.

Sure the per hand or per spin odds are weighted towards the house, but Roulette and Blackjack, esp when certain strategies are deployed are far better then the masses who blow money stuffing it into the machines... I mean, there is a reason why Lottery is so successful. Human nature is attracted to that massive win, even when they know their odds of winning are almost zero. I could easily argue my method is far more logical than the millions who play powerball every week. Ultimately, its just for a bit of fun, and shouldnt be used as a source or hope of income.
Unless there is cheating going on, the probabilities on each spin are (a) the same and (b) in the houses favor, not your favor. Considering that, how much you bet on each spin is irrelevant. If you could somehow discern which spins were going to be winners for you and which were going to be losers, then yes, the amount you bet would matter. You'd bet more on the spins you were going to win on. In fact, you'd ONLY bet on the spins you're going to win on. But alas, you don't know which spins will be winners for you.

That said, I agree that roulette is much better to play than Powerball or the lottery in the sense that you lose your money much more slowly.
 

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