Being projected as 4-5 seed now
We'll see.
I honestly agree with your assessment. We have played some real stinkers and if we do that in the 1st round it will be a short stay.
If shots are falling though, we could make a run. I say if we win the 1st we definitely win the 2nd because of the short turnaround and inability to prepare for us. Then the sweet 16 game will be against better competition with more time to prepare.