I'm going to join the board theme with posting a new thread for every big update. I know it's stolen!
Florence is beginning an eyewall replacement cycle as seen by the recent satellite images. What this means is a new eyewall is forming around the existing one, and until the new eyewall is finished forming, the storm will slightly weaken or at the very least level off in strength. The 11pm update from the NHC is showing some good news - the storm will likely hit shear before reaching the coastline, which depending on how much further it strengthens, could be the difference from a catastrophic Cat 4/5 storm to a little less catastrophic 3/4. The concern with this storm isn't going to be the wind so much as it'll be the storm surge at the coast (12-18 feet) and the record breaking rains that are forecast to fall since the storm looks to stall out between NC, VA, and WV.
I've followed storms for around two decades partly due to having family in Florida, and I've only seen a couple storms do what they are forecasting Florence to do - come inland and stop. That would be Hurricane Mitch, Tropical Storm Allison, and Hurricane Harvey. Mitch killed almost 20,000 people and dumped 50"+ of rain in Central America. Allison dumped at the time record rains on the Houston area in 2001. Harvey matched Katrina in devastation from the rains it dumped on Houston. Hurricane Sandy sort of did the same but kept some movement to it, and it was such a freak situation it isn't the best example.
The coastal areas and even inland to central NC/VA should know the risks by now. Here in WV, we have a chance at tropical storm force winds to reach us into Friday morning. Rains should accompany the winds. Depending on how far inland it gets before it slows to a crawl, WV could see the 6-12" of rain I've seen some forecasts put out, or if the EURO model stays true and it gets its way into WV, we could easily see 12"+ of rain. Make sure you have supplies if you're in the eastern or southern halves of the state. You may see streams flood you haven't seen in your lifetime. WV hasn't had to worry about too many tropical systems but our ground is saturated already from rains, so this is officially one to pay attention to.
This has been one time I wish the models had been wrong, but the EURO has been very on-point so far. Have an emergency plan in place and make sure you have high ground to stay if you don't already (yes I just said that in an Obi-Wan Kenobi voice).
This has been the Blue Lot Eye on The Sky (Clearly Stolen) reporting.
Florence is beginning an eyewall replacement cycle as seen by the recent satellite images. What this means is a new eyewall is forming around the existing one, and until the new eyewall is finished forming, the storm will slightly weaken or at the very least level off in strength. The 11pm update from the NHC is showing some good news - the storm will likely hit shear before reaching the coastline, which depending on how much further it strengthens, could be the difference from a catastrophic Cat 4/5 storm to a little less catastrophic 3/4. The concern with this storm isn't going to be the wind so much as it'll be the storm surge at the coast (12-18 feet) and the record breaking rains that are forecast to fall since the storm looks to stall out between NC, VA, and WV.
I've followed storms for around two decades partly due to having family in Florida, and I've only seen a couple storms do what they are forecasting Florence to do - come inland and stop. That would be Hurricane Mitch, Tropical Storm Allison, and Hurricane Harvey. Mitch killed almost 20,000 people and dumped 50"+ of rain in Central America. Allison dumped at the time record rains on the Houston area in 2001. Harvey matched Katrina in devastation from the rains it dumped on Houston. Hurricane Sandy sort of did the same but kept some movement to it, and it was such a freak situation it isn't the best example.
The coastal areas and even inland to central NC/VA should know the risks by now. Here in WV, we have a chance at tropical storm force winds to reach us into Friday morning. Rains should accompany the winds. Depending on how far inland it gets before it slows to a crawl, WV could see the 6-12" of rain I've seen some forecasts put out, or if the EURO model stays true and it gets its way into WV, we could easily see 12"+ of rain. Make sure you have supplies if you're in the eastern or southern halves of the state. You may see streams flood you haven't seen in your lifetime. WV hasn't had to worry about too many tropical systems but our ground is saturated already from rains, so this is officially one to pay attention to.
This has been one time I wish the models had been wrong, but the EURO has been very on-point so far. Have an emergency plan in place and make sure you have high ground to stay if you don't already (yes I just said that in an Obi-Wan Kenobi voice).
This has been the Blue Lot Eye on The Sky (Clearly Stolen) reporting.
