How much support can Trump actually gain in 2020? It’s not clear, but just a modest swing of black voters toward Trump in 2020 could prove decisive.
thefederalist.com
excerpt:
Two recent and highly reputable polls have registered an extraordinarily high “favorability” rating for Trump among black voters – about 34-35 percent, far exceeding the 8 percent of the black electorate that actually voted for Trump in 2016. That’s a huge jump from the 9 percent favorability rating among African Americans he earned in 2018 and the 13 percent he achieved earlier this year. Of course, a 35 percent favorability rating may not translate into 35 percent support in the 2020 election, but it doesn’t have to. Even a substantial gain to double-digit support could provide the margin of difference in key swing states, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, sealing Trump’s reelection.
...more
According to a
report by the liberal Brookings Institution, the five metropolitan areas with the largest black populations — New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, and Washington, D.C. — have seen black median household incomes increase substantially, from rates of 7 percent in Washington, D.C., to a whopping 21 percent in Atlanta.
The reason? An unprecedented number of African Americans have secured new jobs. In San Francisco alone, black employment levels have risen by 13 percent, higher than increases for any other racial group.
How much support can Trump actually gain in 2020? It’s not clear. But it’s important to note African American men are far more likely than women to gravitate toward Trump.
...finally
If Trump wins in 2020 with expanded black support – as well as Hispanic support, which also appears to be rising – it won’t just be a personal victory. It could signal the beginning of a new era in national politics, in which Democrats can no longer count on ethnic minorities operating in political and ideological lockstep.
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