Remember when the Big 12 was doomed because it lacked a conference championship game?
Using S&P+ win probabilities, here are the odds of winning out for each of the 13 teams in the new top 25 most likely to qualify for the College Football Playoff (i.e., the top 12 and North Carolina):
Probability* Odds of winning out
1 Clemson (11-0) 76%
2 Alabama (10-1) 59%
3 Oklahoma (10-1) 63%
4 Iowa (11-0) 20%
5 Michigan State (10-1) 37%
6 Notre Dame (10-1) 50%
7 Baylor (9-1) 54%
8 Ohio State (10-1) 28%
9 Stanford (9-2) 27%
10 Michigan (9-2) 44%
11 Oklahoma State (10-1) 37%
12 Florida (10-1) 16%
Note to the Big 12: this is why not having a title game could be a good thing. I understand everybody flipped out last year when Ohio State passed Baylor and TCU after destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the "destroyed Wisconsin" part was the most important. A 13th game is a 13th opportunity for a loss.
If Oklahoma had to play in a Big 12 title game against, say, Baylor, a week after beating Oklahoma State, the Sooners' odds of winning out would be around 35 percent. As it stands, the Sooners have the third-best chance of winning out.
Iowa faces a tough game at Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes have a better than 50 percent chance of finishing 12-0. Their main problem is that they only have a 20 percent chance of finishing 13-0. That might even out for the conference if Michigan State is the team vanquishing the Hawkeyes, but what if it's two-loss Michigan? What if the Big Ten's spot ends up going to Notre Dame?
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...s-college-playoff-oklahoma-clemson-notre-dame
