Baker Mayfield, the guy that won the Heisman, had 3 offers coming out of high school. Rice, FAU, and another non P5 school that like FAU & Rice had a storied tradition of SUCKING and being the homecoming opponent at least 7 times every year.
Mayfield walked on at Texas Tech and won the starting job as a true freshman, got injured and lost his job to Davis Webb. Btw This is the biggest reason Cliff Kingsbury should be fired cause it's obvious he totally sucks at evaluating QBs. Mayfield then leaves TX Tech and walks on at Oklahoma and outplays starter and Sugar Bowl MVP Trevor Knight and becomes the starter and wins 2 conference titles and as previously stated, the Heisman.
Recruiting is an inexact evaluation of players. Whether it's Rodney Harrison, Andre Reed, Daryl Green, or Kurt Warner, every year great players get overlooked by D1 for the reasons of politics, favoritism, laziness & ignorance of coaches, and/or legacy commitments. A gal that was my childhood next door neighbor married Chad Pennington, who had no D1 offers, but he was a Heisman Finalist, 1st round draft pick, and played like 11 years in the National Football League. Heck Walter Payton, John Randle, Michael Straehan, Deacon Jones, and Shannon Sharpe didn't have any D1 offers either but they're all in the Pro Football HOF. As is Jerry Rice-Miss Valley State-Greatest WR ever and Charles Haley-James Madison (Got 5 Rings).
According to Lou Holtz, Bobby Howard was given a scholarship offer primarily because ND thought they would increase their chances of landing Moss, Howard went on to start 4 years at ND. That's another Scooter Berry with Jason Gwaltney type story.
Offer lists are not a litmus test.