Locks
Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: Iowa State, Texas, Baylor
Work left to do: Texas Tech
Throw out the Florida game. Sure, it was barely more than a week ago that West Virginia got run off the floor in Gainesville by an unsung, so-so Gators team (at least to that point, anyway), and the high-octane 88-70 result was as confusing as any we've seen all season. Two games later the explanation looks simple: Florida was an outlier. (Also, just for the record? The RPI sees Florida as a top-25 team.) On Tuesday, the Mountaineers did the unthinkable -- winning at Iowa State -- and then, on Saturday, had zero issues with Baylor at home. The result is a resume whose nonconference strength of schedule is the lone noteworthy flaw, a team still playing ever-better basketball, and a schedule that still includes cracks at Kansas and Texas (on the road) and Oklahoma and ISU (at home). The Mountaineers are getting in.
Iowa State [17-6 (6-4), RPI: 13, SOS: 6] That was a gutty win for the Cyclones on Saturday at Oklahoma State. Or maybe it was a giveaway by the Cowboys? They did shoot just three free throws all game, which is kind of crazy. Then again, Georges Niang went 7-for-10 and scored 16 of his 18 points in the second half, which is classic Niang. Your mileage may vary. Whatever the interpretation, the fact is the Cyclones escaped Stillwater, Oklahoma, on an off day offensively, and without suspended big man Jameel McKay, preventing another loss after Tuesday's disappointment against West Virginia. They're now 6-4 in the Big 12. Huge win.
Texas [16-8 (7-4), RPI: 19, SOS: 4] Yes, yes, tough loss. The Longhorns led for most of their trip to Norman, Oklahoma, on Monday. The game was a one-possession affair in the closing seconds. Isaiah Taylor was called for an offensive foul that was both the correct call and a difficult one, given the time and score. And then Buddy Hield did what Buddy Hield does, scoring OU's final 12 points in the last 3:20 of the game, sealing the Sooners' win with a vicious crossover stepback 3. Seriously: Tough loss. But you know what? That was the Longhorns' second defeat in nine games, a stretch that saw them beat Iowa State, West Virginia (away), Baylor (away) and play Kansas to single digits in Lawrence. If anything Monday just cemented this team's progress, because hanging with OU in Norman -- more than hanging with them, really -- is the kind of thing you can only do if you're an extremely good team. At this rate a lock is in play in the very near future. What a month.
Baylor [17-6 (6-4), RPI: 26, SOS: 36] Baylor feels pretty similar to what it was last year, both as a team and resume-wise, at least at this point in the season. Which is to say: pretty good. Not great. Not bad. Pretty good. The mechanics of the Bears' actual team sheet won't get them on the No. 3 line like it did last year, barring a major push over the next month. But even after back-to-back losses, and now sitting at 5-6 against the top 100, it still feels like it would take a collapse for the Bears to miss the tournament. If things head that way, they'll drop to work to do. Right now, they're still OK.
Texas Tech [13-9 (3-7), RPI: 52, SOS: 5] It's hard to take Tech off the page after a 10-point road loss at Texas, because the Longhorns are a quality team playing high-level basketball every time out. But the loss did drop Tech to 3-7 in the Big 12, which is a problematic indicator if nothing else. The schedule will look great the rest of the way, but at some point -- maybe Wednesday against Iowa State -- the Red Raiders just need wins.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: Iowa State, Texas, Baylor
Work left to do: Texas Tech
Throw out the Florida game. Sure, it was barely more than a week ago that West Virginia got run off the floor in Gainesville by an unsung, so-so Gators team (at least to that point, anyway), and the high-octane 88-70 result was as confusing as any we've seen all season. Two games later the explanation looks simple: Florida was an outlier. (Also, just for the record? The RPI sees Florida as a top-25 team.) On Tuesday, the Mountaineers did the unthinkable -- winning at Iowa State -- and then, on Saturday, had zero issues with Baylor at home. The result is a resume whose nonconference strength of schedule is the lone noteworthy flaw, a team still playing ever-better basketball, and a schedule that still includes cracks at Kansas and Texas (on the road) and Oklahoma and ISU (at home). The Mountaineers are getting in.Iowa State [17-6 (6-4), RPI: 13, SOS: 6] That was a gutty win for the Cyclones on Saturday at Oklahoma State. Or maybe it was a giveaway by the Cowboys? They did shoot just three free throws all game, which is kind of crazy. Then again, Georges Niang went 7-for-10 and scored 16 of his 18 points in the second half, which is classic Niang. Your mileage may vary. Whatever the interpretation, the fact is the Cyclones escaped Stillwater, Oklahoma, on an off day offensively, and without suspended big man Jameel McKay, preventing another loss after Tuesday's disappointment against West Virginia. They're now 6-4 in the Big 12. Huge win.
Texas [16-8 (7-4), RPI: 19, SOS: 4] Yes, yes, tough loss. The Longhorns led for most of their trip to Norman, Oklahoma, on Monday. The game was a one-possession affair in the closing seconds. Isaiah Taylor was called for an offensive foul that was both the correct call and a difficult one, given the time and score. And then Buddy Hield did what Buddy Hield does, scoring OU's final 12 points in the last 3:20 of the game, sealing the Sooners' win with a vicious crossover stepback 3. Seriously: Tough loss. But you know what? That was the Longhorns' second defeat in nine games, a stretch that saw them beat Iowa State, West Virginia (away), Baylor (away) and play Kansas to single digits in Lawrence. If anything Monday just cemented this team's progress, because hanging with OU in Norman -- more than hanging with them, really -- is the kind of thing you can only do if you're an extremely good team. At this rate a lock is in play in the very near future. What a month.
Baylor [17-6 (6-4), RPI: 26, SOS: 36] Baylor feels pretty similar to what it was last year, both as a team and resume-wise, at least at this point in the season. Which is to say: pretty good. Not great. Not bad. Pretty good. The mechanics of the Bears' actual team sheet won't get them on the No. 3 line like it did last year, barring a major push over the next month. But even after back-to-back losses, and now sitting at 5-6 against the top 100, it still feels like it would take a collapse for the Bears to miss the tournament. If things head that way, they'll drop to work to do. Right now, they're still OK.
Texas Tech [13-9 (3-7), RPI: 52, SOS: 5] It's hard to take Tech off the page after a 10-point road loss at Texas, because the Longhorns are a quality team playing high-level basketball every time out. But the loss did drop Tech to 3-7 in the Big 12, which is a problematic indicator if nothing else. The schedule will look great the rest of the way, but at some point -- maybe Wednesday against Iowa State -- the Red Raiders just need wins.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch
