How West Virginia can beat Kentucky in the Sweet 16

[Shipyard Dog]

"If they are having an off night, Kentucky is vulnerable: in the seven Kentucky games decided by fewer than 10 points this season, the Harrison twins have shot a combined 33.9 percent from the field, well below their 38.5 percent average."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/03/23/how-west-virginia-can-beat-kentucky-in-the-sweet-16/

 

[JohnnyDrama388]

We can beat UK because anything is possible when you play defense and as hard as we do. Also helps that we have a senior PG who can create his own shot whenever he wants (Think Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier for UCONN)


What happens if the game is 55-55 with 6 minutes left and their undefeated season is on the ropes? You don't think they will get a little tight? They are mostly 19 year old kids playing in their first tournament game (I know the Harrisons are sophomores) but still and their fan base EXPECTS them to win. We will play completely loose and have the luxury of playing 9-10 players who are all on or near the same talent level.


This game has slugfest written all over it. UK will get their dunks and open 3's....but also turn then all over a lot and miss their free throws.


I think Jaysean Paige is the X-factor. We could use 4-5 3's from him to get the momentum going.

 

[Catmyers]

UK will have to shoot in the 20% range and WVA shoot in the 40% range and 5 players will have to foul out on UK team and miss 1/2 FT's then maybe then WVA will have a shot! Look at the games you guys lost this year UK is that kind of team NOT being a smart a$$ just see it as most do!

 

[LowFatMilk]

Hey Cat... ...I did a quick visit..

...and people on your own forum don't give you very much respect.

 

[ImaStatMan]

15+ more shots than them- which I don't think is that big of a stretch.

When they played OU adn won big- they took 18 more shots, they took 15 more shots than Kansas when they beat them, and I know VMI isn't a top-caliber team but they took 23 more shots than them when they played earlier this year... 23!

No matter how good of a night you have- when the other team takes 15 more shots than you do, it's going to be tough to beat them. Forcing the turnovers and the offensive boards will be there- the absolute key though is for Staten/Carter/Brown/Phillip to NOT TURN THE BALL OVER themselves. The ugly stretch to close out the season saw us force 18 turnovers but give it right back to the other team 15 times, negating any advantage.

Be smart with the ball and there's totally a chance to give UK the L.

 

[TarHeelEer]

there's a reason they play the game

Here's to no injuries.

 

[TarHeelEer]

^^^ this plus

We've got to be good on the boards

 

[crazyqx83]

Originally posted by JohnnyDrama388:
We can beat UK because anything is possible when you play defense and as hard as we do. Also helps that we have a senior PG who can create his own shot whenever he wants (Think Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier for UCONN)


What happens if the game is 55-55 with 6 minutes left and their undefeated season is on the ropes? You don't think they will get a little tight? They are mostly 19 year old kids playing in their first tournament game (I know the Harrisons are sophomores) but still and their fan base EXPECTS them to win. We will play completely loose and have the luxury of playing 9-10 players who are all on or near the same talent level.


This game has slugfest written all over it. UK will get their dunks and open 3's....but also turn then all over a lot and miss their free throws.


I think Jaysean Paige is the X-factor. We could use 4-5 3's from him to get the momentum going.

5 of our top 9 have played 2 final four games. How many tournament games have your guys played prior to this year?

We are quite a bit more talented than you all. Don't be silly.

We are 34th in the country as far as turnovers per possessiin. We have only turned the ball over 8.5 times per game over the last month.

We are 73rd in the nation in free throw percentage and 6th in free throws made per game. You all are 270th in free throw percentage.

So basically none of what you posted had much basis in fact.

 

[spartansstink]

Let's be realistic here...

1. They are longer than us.
2. They have better players than us at every position (with the possible exception of point guard)
3. They have 4 days to prepare for us.
4. They are expected to win - by everyone except a few crazy Mountaineer fans out there.

So, what chance is there. Looking at the above, as well as the odds, not much.

However, I have watched them play several times this year.

A couple of things we have in our favor...

1. UK at times plays very sloppily. Lazy passes, uncertainty at times in their sets, and a reliance on their athleticism to create scores.
2. UK also goes through stretches where they seem to lose focus.

When these two events happen, WVU must take advantage. Get turnovers and most importantly, turn those turnovers into points. Go on runs, and withstand theirs without too much damage. Play solid, fundamental basketball and keep the starters on the court and out of foul trouble.

Tall order...play the best basketball we have all season for 40 minutes, and maybe we might have a chance.

 

[crazyqx83]

When has UK played sloppy?

 

[ImaStatMan]

Originally posted by crazyqx83:
5 of our top 9 have played 2 final four games. How many tournament games have your guys played prior to this year?

We are quite a bit more talented than you all. Don't be silly.

We are 34th in the country as far as turnovers per possessiin. We have only turned the ball over 8.5 times per game over the last month.

- In regards to turnovers, that's good and all but UK hasn't played a team that presses every possession the way the Mountaineers do. In perspective- Iowa St, for the year only averaged 10.0 turnovers per game, they play WVU and turn it over 18, UConn 11.3 season average- 19 times vs WVU, Virginia Tech 11.7 season average... 25 TO's vs WVU- 25! Maryland 12.0... 21 vs WVU, Oklahoma 12.1... 22.

WVU makes teams uncomfortable. UK is going to turn the ball over more than usual- that's going to happen. It just depends on what WVU does with those extra possessions.

 

[spartansstink]

Originally posted by crazyqx83:
When has UK played sloppy?

UK has a fantastic coach. It has, questionably, the greatest collection of 10 deep talent ever assembled in an NCAA program.

Yet, even with all of those things. They don't play with 100% efficiency. Far from it. I could name several times, in every game I saw, when they didn't even come close to that. They've done well enough to win every game so far, but to be fair, every game now brings a lot more added pressure. Maybe that pressure builds to the point where it explodes for our benefit. That's our angle - be more efficient than UK for 40 minutes.

Or, is that your supposition? That UK has played every game this year with 100% efficiency?

 

[Lmob]

They looked sloppy to me in the Texas A&M game but that was primarily do to not being able to make their shots. They were sloppy against Louisville...very sloppy but shot well enough to win that game. They have had a lot of games where they have shot a low percentage and others where they have turned the ball over. Yes, WVU needs some things to happen... They need to pound the offensive glass and hit the 'Cats where they have been vulnerable at times for some second chance points.

Kentucky has shot very poorly at times, they have played sloppily and turned the ball over at times, and they have been beaten on the boards (especially giving up offensive boards) by smaller(every team is smaller) and scrappier teams.

What WVU needs to have happen to win:

1.) Kentucky to come out and play with poor execution. They have had stretches of inconsistent effort this year. WVU needs to jump on any of these stretches of inconsistency, turn the ball over and build a lead.

2.) Kentucky needs to shoot poorly. Kentucky has some players that can absolutely fill the bucket up. These same players, though, have had games where they have thrown up enough bricks to build a house for Lebron James.

3.) WVU needs to hit what few open shots they will have. WVU does not have to shoot 50% but they will need to hit around 40% to win.

4.) WVU needs to pound the offensive boards. Kentucky has given up some second chance points this season. Every offensive board creates another chance.

5.) WVU needs the refs to not call the fouls against them when the contact is initiated by the offensive player and to actually call fouls against Kentucky when they amp up their pressure and do the handchecking they like to do.

Kentucky is a better team then WVU, but, if Kentucky is not on their game and WVU is playing fired up without foul trouble, WVU can win this game.