Everything Trump touches turns to sh*t.
Goldman Sachs Says Trump Win Would Lead to Economic Downturn
As financial institutions weigh the potential impact of November’s election, Goldman Sachs is warning that a victory by former President Donald Trump would likely lead to an economic downturn.
According to a Tuesday note from Goldman, economists at the firm “estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse.” They project that GDP growth would peak at 0.5 percentage points in 2025, the positive effects of which would abate in 2026.
By contrast, Goldman predicts that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House and Democrats sweep, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
Goldman Sachs Says Trump Win Would Lead to Economic Downturn
As financial institutions weigh the potential impact of November’s election, Goldman Sachs is warning that a victory by former President Donald Trump would likely lead to an economic downturn.
According to a Tuesday note from Goldman, economists at the firm “estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse.” They project that GDP growth would peak at 0.5 percentage points in 2025, the positive effects of which would abate in 2026.
By contrast, Goldman predicts that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the White House and Democrats sweep, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026.”
