Coaches typically try not to think about how thin the margins are between a contract extension and a job hunt, so these exercises aren't the norm for season recaps. I think they are interesting nonetheless.
As a general rule of thumb in college basketball, a 1% improvement in either eFG% margin or TO% margin equates to 4/3rds of a win in a 31 game season. A 3% gross improvement, then, equates to 4 more projected wins, all other things being equal.
Our 46.1% eFG was 2.9% below the D1 average of 49.0%. The 52.7% eFG we allowed was 3.7% higher than the D1 average. Improving on both ends to be right at the D1 average projects to 8.8 more wins...which would actually give us a nearly 1-game Luck cushion to project to 31-0.
Conversely, if we only turned teams over at 22% for the season instead of 28.0%, our regular season record would have dropped from 23-8 to 15-16 (projected).
I would be very surprised if any other team was -6.6% or more in eFG and finished above .500. Will take a look at that now.
As a general rule of thumb in college basketball, a 1% improvement in either eFG% margin or TO% margin equates to 4/3rds of a win in a 31 game season. A 3% gross improvement, then, equates to 4 more projected wins, all other things being equal.
Our 46.1% eFG was 2.9% below the D1 average of 49.0%. The 52.7% eFG we allowed was 3.7% higher than the D1 average. Improving on both ends to be right at the D1 average projects to 8.8 more wins...which would actually give us a nearly 1-game Luck cushion to project to 31-0.
Conversely, if we only turned teams over at 22% for the season instead of 28.0%, our regular season record would have dropped from 23-8 to 15-16 (projected).
I would be very surprised if any other team was -6.6% or more in eFG and finished above .500. Will take a look at that now.
