2020 is Just a guess on my part. Once you make the move to expand there is no going back.
The BIG12 did not spend all this time and effort getting this amendment changed if they planed to expand all along. If the 10 team 1 vs 2 CCG dereg amendment passes , expansion is dead for the time being to allow CCG to play out several years and determine if conference is still at a disadvantage. If there is a perceived disadvantage the the possibility of expansion is back on the table.
I agree it is not likely the BIG12 will expand during TV contract negotiations assuming the conference is NOT at a disadvantage. However it is the next logical time if anything is to take place. I also agree, current ratings and on field (bowl) success has not been great. If TV per team payout does not keep up with the PAC and ACC, the only other option is creating a real BIG12 network. For this to happen the BIG12 has to expand it's footprint
During tv contract negotiations its too late to begin trying to add teams. Any additions would have to take place prior to that to have any positive effect on the negotiations. In 2024 when the BIG 12 renegotiates again, there won't be any different assortment of teams to pick from and the existing pool is likely to be very diminished in stature by that time. Other than that the next financial gain opportunity is the bowls contracts being redone in 2019. After that end of the Pac 12 grant of rights 2023-2024, and then end of the current BIG 12 grant of rights in 2025.
The BIG 12 has always throughout the entire process stated that they wanted a rules change so they could have options. They didn't want a rules change with amendments--they wanted to be able to have a conference without divisions no matter how large, and to be able to select a champion however they saw fit to do so. Expansion has always been an option and that isn't going to change but becomes less likely if they adopt the CCG at 10 teams.
A couple years of failure with that new model though could quickly spell change. What is most likely to cause change has always been the money issue--and in a year or so they'll know what the Big Ten is going to be getting and if that is going to be a problem.
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