The majority of what gets written never happens and when it does it never seems to happen in the immediate future. The narrative last year at this time was the Big 12 wouldn't be around much longer. Its a year later its still here. The narrative this summer is the Pac 12 is dead but its currently still standing. I see it being here next year. Who knows what will be talking about this time next year. I doubt it will be this. Any movement of Pac 12 teams to the Big 12 or vice versa probably won't happen until the next round of expansion which is probably years away. If the Big 12 has offered membership to certain Pac 12 teams I'm sure the offer will probably not have a time limit on it. I don't foresee the big 12 changing or having any other opportunities to add existing power 5 schools. I don't think any of the Pac 12 teams not on the invite list of the Sec or Big 10 will move until the Pac 12 gets so watered down that it isn't worth sticking around. Most of the conference have their media rights deals expire around the same time. Its also the period were expansion has been taking place. I think the Sec and Big 10 will set their next deal to expire around the time the Acc deal expires. I think the Acc will be the next to get poached. Which ever scenario plays out if any probably isn't in the near future.
Could the P12(10) be more secure than the B12?
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I do not recall anyone of sound mind claiming the Big 12 dead after the defection of UT and OU. They were proclaiming that the Big 12 was clearly knocked down a peg and likely out of the "Power 5" grouping. That same thing holds true for the PAC 12 now that UCLA and USC are gone. The PAC 12 without those 2 teams is objectively out of the "power" conference discussion and into the 2nd tier if that is where the Big 12 has been banished to now that UT and OU are on the way out.
I agree that expansion is not likely to happen in a single year, but it seems to be at issue every 8-10 as seen by WVU's conference affiliations since the early 90's
Both Big 10 and SEC sit at 16 teams. ACC has the most potential raid candidates not only for value, but for geographic influence. ND is still on the table and likely to join a conference if the Big 10 and SEC get big enough and threaten to boycott them in scheduling. But if the best fish available between ND, UNC, and Clemson are poached by the Big 10 and SEC, additional members will be added to pad out the numbers and 20 per conference seems like the likely end point.
Hence for geographic dominance and to help the geographically isolated USC and UCLA, the Big 10 would at least consider adding more western programs. Likely Oregon, Stanford, Cal, and perhaps UW would be the most viable candidates. That leaves AZ, ASU, Colorado, Utah, Oregon State, and WSU, and possibly 2 of the former 4, all with the real possibility of desperately looking for landing spot in 10 years just as WVU was 10 years ago.
I'm sure some of those schools think they have a guaranteed invite to the Big 12 if the PAC 12 is raided and they are not the one's headed for the Big 10 or SEC. But that would be somewhat foolhardy as things can change and most of the remaining PAC 12, like the remaining Big 12, are not vastly disparate in value.
All that to say that the situation is volatile and there are lots of possibilities without a head and shoulders odds on favorite among them. The Big 12 should shoot for the moon and not just tell some PAC 12 schools that they have an invite if the PAC 12 is raided again, but try to leverage some of them to make a move when the contract is up in 2024. Even if some remaining PAC 12 teams are fairly confident they will be at the big boy table when the dust settles, they have to consider your point that the next raid won't be until after 2030. Could they survive as a viable big boy target if they spend 8+ years in a defunct conference without USC and UCLA and, the off chance that, 2-4 other programs bet on the jumping to the Big 12 in 2024? Does an ASU team gamble that a Big 12 spot will be better in the long run than hoping for the best in the current PAC 12?
It is obvious that college football is moving toward a Big 10/SEC as tier 1 and who makes the final cut is the focal point currently. But more schools are going to be left out rather than invited in and maintaining tier 2 status is the best outcome for most schools in the "Power 5". Some PAC 12 schools may make the cut into tier 1, some are legitimately looking at tier 2 as the best possible outcome and some will most likely be relegated to tier 3 like the AAC or Sun Belt. Which one's are which is the question and it's hard to tell what desperation to avoid being the odd men out will cause programs to do.
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I think the Ark is leaving the NCAA by 2030. That timeline is going to move this much more quickly than prior expansion rounds.
Either you're on it or you're not. That's it. If you aren't then welcome to $10-15M/team/yr TV contracts and the only time your school gets mentioned is when a real team needs to call up a player from the minors via the portal.
Either you're on it or you're not. That's it. If you aren't then welcome to $10-15M/team/yr TV contracts and the only time your school gets mentioned is when a real team needs to call up a player from the minors via the portal.
I think two more from the PAC would be optimistic, unless the BIG goes to 22 or 24. IF the BIG goes to 20 I think they have a spot for ND, UNC and UVA. Leaving one spot for a PAC team. I would guess Stanford would get the nod unless the BIG decides that a play in Texas would make more sense.
Rethuglicans are the only ones cheating on elections and trying to keep people from voting and voting illegally and jerrymandering states like PA so the majority cant win most of the time when they had the most votes. Most importantly rethuglicans are the ones trying to destroy democracy, put a dictator in charge of the US and end America. Democrats are trying to save the country.
The PAC still has the same problems. Lack of resources, lack of fans, lack of viewers and maybe most importantly who will sign a grant of rights when two or three programs demand more money than others and won’t sign a long term agreement because they want to leave asap? Doesn’t bode well for stability.
Assuming they get all of those. They fit the Big 10 culture for sure, but SEC may make a play for UNC and possibly VA to keep the Big 10 out of their region. If Big 10 does get all 3, I agree they will be looking for another PAC team. Texas presence without UT or A&M doesn’t mean much on the Big10/SEC level. So I doubt they take TCU, TTU, Baylor, or Houston over Oregon or Stanford. Hell, I'd think KU might have more of an inside track.
There were many articles this time last year speculating on whether the Pac 12 were going to raid the Big 12. Just as there were articles this year speculating whether the Big 12 was going to raid the Pac 12. If either had happed it would have essentially finished off one or the other. When the Big 10 expands again which is most likely after the next media rights deal expires. It will probably be a decade or so. They will most likely go after the best available. They took both Ucla and USC so they wouldn't be out on an island. I think the Big 12 has tried to shoot for the moon by adding some of the Pac 12 teams but I don't think there interested at this time.
For starts When did I ever say the Big 10 or Sec were expanding? I don't think either will expand for another 10-15 years unless something of value comes available. When it comes to value I am talking ND, Clemson, FSU and Possibly Miami. There is nothing in the pac 12 that currently has value to the big 10 or Sec. Saying the Pac 12 without USC/Ucla is a tier below the Big 12 is a crock. Oregon, Washington and Stanford will get an invite to the Sec or Big 10 before any of the teams that will make up the new Big 12. The Pac still has more state flagship universities and isn't constructed with former G5 teams like the Big 12 is.
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I don't know if I would say that Bill Stewart was a great QB coach. I don't think he did much more than bring coffee and doughnuts to the coach's meetings. He was probably only on Rods staff because asbestos Ed forced it upon him.
And a pretty solid recruiter. If not mistaken, among others, we had Tavon Austin because of him.
I think the BIG and the SEC stay at 16 for a long while. I have a hard time imagining them both going for more than 20 teams simply because after they add the next 8 teams it starts to get pretty dilutive. ND, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, Clemson, Fla St, UNC, UVA and Miami make 9. I think Miami and Washington are the last ones in or out. Where would the BIG or the SEC go next that would be a slam dunk addition?
Good chance the Big Ten expands before that. If Notre Dame agrees to join them it will happen by 2025 (When NDs contract runs out). ND is in discussions with NBC right now to see what NBC will do and that would go a long long way towards NDs decision.
Also, UCLA and USC are FAR away from anyone else in the B10. It is highly unlikely that they will be left on that sort of an island through 2030.
The B10 may just be waiting out the immediate Pac negotiations to avoid legal issues (and that helps schools make decisions when they know what they can get on the open market) as well as the ND decision.
The B10 will also get a new influx of cash once the next playoff starts and that may also influence when they add schools.
Of course since the SEC has nowhere to go except mainly to the ACC to get to 20 and any certainty of more revenues, maybe the Big Ten is waiting to see what they can pick out of the ACC first before taking schools like Oregon or Washington or Stanford when they can acquire UNC and UVA and GT.
Big 10 isn't expanding again and Notre Dame isn't joining get a clue. Another one of your expansion fantasies is going up in smoke.
You wouldn't know a player or coach if they bumped into you on the street.
They will stop at 16 until further notice and WVU will not be in one of the top 2.
Uh, that is already a given right now.
But in the future when the Power 2 goes to 24, I believe they will be.
For a guy who complains about mediocrity its surprising that you stick up for this guy. He was the only coach that took over a ready made situation and it took him 3 games to wreck it. He inherited a team with 8 starters back on offense. An offense that was 4th in the country in 2007 and turned it into the 60th best in 2008. When Stewart Took over Wvu was the Alabama of the Big East and he failed to finish 1st in any of his 3 years as head coach. In his final season he had 17 starters back from the previous season and didn't improve upon his win total. Holgorsen took over and got a much weaker team to the orange bowl.
I doubt you have left your basement since March 2020. You probably love being on your knees in front of Joe "I can't ride a bike, climb stairs or put on a jacket" Biden.
Really ND, UNC, and UVA have the highest value in terms of a their programs worth and location to extend conference footprint for both conferences. Clemson is of more value to the Big 10 to get into the southeast, but culturally not a fit. SEC might want to get them just as much to keep the Big 10 out. Same with FSU or Miami.
ND and the expiration of ACC contract are the pending moves. If either the SEC or Big 10 get ND, they add for sure 1 more to keep it even. The one that doesn't get ND definitely makes plan for 2 more additions to compete.
Let's say ND goes to Big 10 and insists on say Stanford for the deal. The SEC counters with some combination of 2 out of Clemson, FSU, UNC, and UVA. At least one other of those ACC schools will be tempting to either the Big 10 or SEC. And pursuit of any single one will likely bring another 3 along with it to keep the conferences even and competing. So if there are 5 schools the Big 10 and/or the SEC really want. 8 are most likely going to be added to get those 5 and make the conferences manageable.
Frankly I think 20 teams is a stretch. Who are the teams they will add to go to 24 and why? At 16 teams each they have already inflicted mortal wounds on two conferences. If they go to 20 teams each the ACC will join the walking dead and the PAC will have another bullet in the back of their head. 8 more teams from where that would be worth a network paying 80 to 100 million per team?
Inflicted mortal wounds on 3 conferences as the ACC is having internal strife because of the moves and money shown to the power 2. There are 16 teams out there from the other three conferences that p2 will add.
Hopefully it will be enough to get the Big 12 to $50M/team. In the end it will save money.
Yeah? Who are they that bring that kind of value? ND is the only one that might actually bring 80 million with them. Even Clemson might be dilutive but let's say they are in. Stanford because they have an endowment that lets them scoff at 80 million and ND wants them. Who else? I'll give you UNC and UVA just because they would add big states and fit the profiles. I'll even give you Fla State and Miami because Florida is a big state. I'll even throw in Oregon or Washington to get it to an even 8 teams, 20 teams per conference. Probably already at dilutive numbers but maybe the networks are willing to pay. Tell me who the 8 teams are that you add to get them to 24 teams that will bring 80 to 100 million per team to the conferences.
Notre Dame May in fact join the Big Ten. Largely depends on whether NBC or someone else will give them $75 million a year for six games.
Soon there may be only three primary conferences contending for playoffs and when/ if that happens ND may not have a spot Unless they are in a mega conference.
For certain UCLA and USC are not going to want to remain on an island indefinitely.
The largest chance of more realignment however remains from the ACC. Everyone wants out of that conference. Few if any sports journalists believe those that want to move and can will fall behind so drastically for the next 14 years and do nothing. Another influx of monies is coming in just a couple more years so that’s a very likely time for change. Plus the playoffs which will be important in Realignment because bigger has shown to be better in making the playoffs.
The SEC needs to take ACC teams to sweeten their pot and compete with the B10—ACC teams have wanted to join the SEC and B10 for awhile now—something will give before 14 years is up.
Soon there may be only three primary conferences contending for playoffs and when/ if that happens ND may not have a spot Unless they are in a mega conference.
For certain UCLA and USC are not going to want to remain on an island indefinitely.
The largest chance of more realignment however remains from the ACC. Everyone wants out of that conference. Few if any sports journalists believe those that want to move and can will fall behind so drastically for the next 14 years and do nothing. Another influx of monies is coming in just a couple more years so that’s a very likely time for change. Plus the playoffs which will be important in Realignment because bigger has shown to be better in making the playoffs.
The SEC needs to take ACC teams to sweeten their pot and compete with the B10—ACC teams have wanted to join the SEC and B10 for awhile now—something will give before 14 years is up.
Got a 1,000 that says you're full of shit. Another 1,000 that says you are Greg.
Only way ND joins a conference is if they have no avenue to the playoffs.
Well since you always like to stroke Greg and Heard you're not going to be holding onto that grand for long
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