What is the $ difference between the two leagues pay-out? What is the TV rights $ U of L would lose, if they would lose it, through a court challenge. I'm not sure a conference (ACC) would win over an individual school (U of L). Their buyout may be considerably smaller when you calculate the actual damage done to the other ACC members if U of L would leave. >
Could Louisville be lured to the Big 12 from the ACC?
- Thread starter wvued
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Neither Oklahoma or Louisville can be "lured away" until their grant of rights is done, if they have any desire to be lured even then. That's a decade, or over a decade out from now. Indications for both would point to no.
yes, for the same amount that maryland paid to go to the big 10. but no acc team is leaving for the b12, not going to happen
This is incorrect. Maryland left the ACC before the grant of rights was in place. The two situations are not the same.
Sure does seem like they are becoming more and more unhappy. I think they sound a lot like Miami did before they bolted the Big East.
Oklahoma knows the BIG 12 needs some changes to be succesful down the road, after the current tv contracts are up. Their president is looking out for the school he represents. But they can't walk away from a grant of rights and the conference is working on any issues right now and for the next several months. Good chance everything will work out fine.
Louisville could be approached a couple of years after the current BIG 12 contracts are up, who knows?
I'll say this...anyone who's ever been in a courtroom knows not to make absolute statements. The GOR is just like any other agreement, it can be challenged and litigated. It's a powerful deterrent.
The enforceability rests with 1) A judge, and 2) The other conference members will.
I don't think anyone is leaving their conference, but the opinion that GOR's are invincible bothers me.
The Big 12 has some substantial deficiencies that I am not sure it can overcome but the future will tell. The fact that Oklahoma nets less than 2 million off their tier 3 is concerning in my opinion because I am guessing 2 other conferences out there probably nets much more than that for their tier 3. I think 2 of the 5 power conferences have inventory to make a tier 3 network successful and they already have one. I really don't think a Big 12 network would be successful at all. 10 people probably have 10 different outcomes on how this will all work out and all 10 would probably end up wrong in some fashion. Its an interesting topic to debate about but not worth getting to emotional over.
I agree 100% with you. Also why I think Oklahoma has made so many of these statements public. Big 12 can never say they were not aware that the Sooners are unhappy. If, and I am not saying it will, it goes to a courtroom Oklahoma can try to use defense that the league was not looking out for the best interest of one of its members. May be a reason you have seen a few statements from WVU about wanting eastern partners. Nothing about this is a reason to get too emotional over but following all this realignment stuff has been interesting over the years in my opinion. Personally I don't think the SEC and Big 10 stick at 14. I think there will be one more round.
The SEC just got a new contract and network. They aren't looking at expansion.
The Big Ten is either in early stages or about to be with theirs. If they were going to be inviting someone it would be done.
Neither one though has the money to keep existing members whole financially and also entice another P5 school to come in at a higher rate than they get now, and also take care of the millions in buyout fees and legal fees that would be necessary to fight a grant of rights-not to mention the actual loss of media rights revenues that would ensue for a school.
In 2027 the Big Ten or SEC might try to expand again. The BIG 12 needs to be concerned about 2024-2025 when their current tv contracts are up--and from now until then as others get new tv contracts, or their revenues increase with conference networks and such.
Oklahoma's president after researching the matter believes each school in the BIG 12 is currently losing $4 to $6 million a year by the conference not having a network. The BIG 12 is very capable of having a network, but now that they've allowed tier 3 deals instead, there are "entanglements" to work out there first.
The conference is carefully investigating the numbers and will come to some decisions fairly soon about a course of action to take.
Sadly, the top dog that keeps the Big 12 viable is the same top dog that is killing it as well. Texas is the problem and they have been forever. The reason Nebraska, Colorado, Missourri, Texas A&M left is Texas. Texas and their stupid ass long horn network and their greedy money grabs are the reason Oklahoma is seriously considering leaving as well.
Texas needs to give up their longhorn network and transition it into the Big 12 network.
Personally, I think Kansas will end up in the Big 10 and Oklahoma in the SEC.
Texas needs to give up their longhorn network and transition it into the Big 12 network.
Personally, I think Kansas will end up in the Big 10 and Oklahoma in the SEC.
A GOR can be challenged and litigated-if someone wants to do that.
But there are also consequences of taking such actions.
One can look at real cases to see what sort of outcomes there might be. Such as Maryland leaving the ACC.
In that case there was a buyout increase Maryland didn't vote for. Still, Maryland had to pay over $30 million in order to get out of that agreement. While the court case went on--in the two year neighborhood, Maryland didn't receive revenues from the ACC.
A grant of rights is a much larger animal in that it involves much greater revenues, and there is a carefully evaluated and signed documentation giving media rights to a conference for the duration of a contract.
So if you are Louisville, OU, or whoever, you are trying to get back something that no longer belongs to you because essentially you changed your mind--knowing that while you may be successful in part, your probably going to still end up forfeiting $60 percent of that. When you are talking about hundreds of millions of dollars its an impossible amount. And that is one part of the financial hit. The other part will be the conference buyout where you'll also have to pay tens of millions of dollars.
So you'll have court fees, loss of revenues for years, the new conference won't be able to make anything off your media revenues, but will have to pay you more than you made before to A: entice you to leave in the first place and B: make up for all the lost revenues you are going to take on for years. Also, there are going to be legal issues with any network which pays the media rights revenues to sort out in court at huge expense.
A conference trying to acquire a school under a GOR would have to fork out hundreds of millions of dollars and yet somehow still keep their existing members from losing money, even though there's no new revenues from added members for years.
All of that doesn't take into account the voiding of networks tv agreements and all conferences grants of rights which could cause massive destabilization around college athletics and television partners alike.
So, yeah, someone "could" take a GOR to court, but no one involved in the business expects that anyone will, and certainly no conferences are going to try to challenge one.
The idea that GORs are some easily breakable deal that can or would be done is not taking the reality of the situation into account.
The most likely outcome is that the BIG 12 will expand, the LHN will be merged into a conference wide network and the league will begin a CCG with all existing members and new ones, and that all members will be very succesful financially and competitively as much as any conference after that.
I don't think Maryland would provide any precedent.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your opinion, I'm merely pointing that your opinion is uneducated.
A judge may interpret the situation entirely different and imo, I wouldn't be eniterly surprised if one did.
My opinion is based on facts. Your opinion-is your opinion.
Bottom line, everyone would be giddy if someone were going to leave a P5 conference for the BIG 12 but its not happening anytime in the next decade plus--and in the meantime the BIG 12 has lots of its own business to attend to.
And if the data supports doing that there's no reason Texas won't do whatever they can to work with the other members.
Well, as I said...anyone who has been in a courtroom knows that until a judge rules it's all just opinion (hence the term LEGAL OPINION) - I've been pretty clear on that. You're the one making absolute statements, not me.
Your opinion is based on the facts you ASSUME to know, and perhaps a few you actually do. But that's just surface material. There's a reason for depositions and subpoenas and investigations.
If the GOR were challenged the facts you're presenting wouldn't matter much. Have you ever experienced protracted litigation?
Louisville is a basketball crazed school that loves being in the ACC. There is no chance that they would leave for the Big 12. That ship sailed in 2011.
I haven't made absolute statements, I've discussed the various problems with the idea of "anything could happen, GORs can easily be broken".
The people that created GORs for conferences don't believe they are easily broken, or that anyone is going to try to break them. I understand some want them to be broken and others have dreamed up all manner of myths to claim they can and will be at the drop of a dime, but its just not the case.
The BIG 12s has been around five or more years now, I can't remember one week when someone on the internet wasn't claiming how easy that would be to break and that teams were going here or there and could easily if this or that conference snapped their fingers. Everyone's still going strong and the ACC stopped realignment in its tracks years ago by adding one of their own.
Guess it'll take another 10 or 12 years before some realize GORs are sound legally and no one is going to attempt the massive financial hit that would happen if they walked away from their media rights and then tried to get them back.
The BIG 12 meanwhile is going ahead with evaluations that don't involve schools under grants of rights.
LOL - I've resisted giving any opinion on this matter whatsoever, other than advising folks to be suspicious of individuals claiming to know things which they clearly do not.
Personally, I'm not comfortable with the fairness and good faith of a GOR, especially when the parties are taxpayer funded, non-profit institutions.
Personally, I'm not comfortable with the fairness and good faith of a GOR, especially when the parties are taxpayer funded, non-profit institutions.
Show me who made that comment.
You aren't addressing other people on the internet, you're addressing me - so I'll ask you to only address the statements I've actually made and save those other conversations for those other people.
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Likewise, back when WVU left the Big East there were countless know-nothings claiming we'do be on the hook for absurd millions (same for Maryland). I didn't listen to those nincumpoops then and I won't listen to their present day counterparts now who are just as lost.
The problem is, you are sort of making it seem like just because it isn't impossible to break a GOR, it's likely. Of course, nobody can say for 100% certainty that a GOR can't be broken. That doesn't invalidate the stance that it's unlikely a GOR will be broken or challenged. It's a pretty foolish argument to think that all these presidents and athletic directors are a bunch if idiots. It's pretty unlikely they would sign a GOR if it wasn't likely to hold up in court. It's also foolish to believe that ESPN would pay extra money to a league for signing a GOR (as they did with the ACC), if a GOR wasn't likely to hold up in court.
Well, we did pay 20 mil so I would call that a pretty big number.[WVU]
Not sure how or when, but believe there is more to come, GOR or no GOR. The days of kids flying out on a Friday morning / afternoon and not returning until 3:00 / 4:00 am on a Wednesday, then heading to class in morning & to practice in the afternoon ( as occurred the past week ), is a lousy schedule for all involved. I realize Florida was the opponent but could just as easily been any other Big 12 team. I know I am in the minority but, for the travel and other reasons, I am not a fan of WV being a member of the Big 12 in the long run. When the $$$$ equation changes in the future, I think so will conference members. I don't think every school will always be happy with the alignments, but I do believe there are several areas of change yet to come. For now though, I am enjoying our view from the top of the Big 12.
not that i care. but you're wrong. maryland voted against the gor. but it was in place when they left.
That doesn't seem accurate. I think they voted against an increased exit fee and the GOR was implemented after their departure was in motion.
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Not as much as the $50 (or more) many people, mostly Pitt and Marshall fans, predicted.
I wish I saved some of those posts, back then.
Maryland announced it was leaving ACC Nov. 2012. ACC signs GOR April 2013. That's the information I read.
Your response has been embedded.
For anyone else, those capable of thinking for themselves, I will say it again - until an agreement is challenged and upheld, no one knows it's ligitimacy.
That doesn't mean the GOR isn't legally sound (as someone mentioned), or that university president are idiots, or their legal teams...it just means the other side will get to provide their argument, and no one knows what that argument would be, or how compelling it could be, until it occurs. There is a reason for depositions, subpoenas, protracted litigation, and investigative teams.
Right now you're only dealing with surface material and what's intentionally fed to the public. You can eat it up as much as you want, I'll do what I always do and think for myself.
The GOR is like an Abrams M1-A1 tank standing in the way of leaving. But violations of the contract by the conference can can create IEDs for the members. They must be careful to fulfill their half of the deal.
The first step in understanding an agreement is reading it. We're all discussing an agreement none of us have read - forgive me for not having blind faith in it.
Only dis-interested parties can dissolve the conference per conference bylaws--unless every member agreed to dissolve it that isn't possible.
If every member gets a better deal in another conference then it doesn't really matter. Since that isn't going to happen, there also won't ever be any dissolution.
All of that is moot--the conference isn't breaking up, dissolving or anything else. The members reaffirmed their unity just today.
