College football coaches who could be ready to make a leap
When it comes to the college football coaching carousel, the supply of candidates will always outweigh the demand for their services.
Not every coach who appears below will move up to a head-coaching position -- or, in some cases, better lead gigs than they already have -- when the carousel stops spinning sometime this winter or next spring. As noted in our coaching hot seat breakdown, the upcoming cycle might feature fewer vacancies than initially projected. But there will be movement, as always, and the goal here is to identify the coaches who will be most coveted for job openings in the coming months.
Like in the past, this list was divided into four categories: Power 5 head coaches, Group of 5 head coaches, Power 5 coordinators and a miscellaneous category that includes mostly FCS head coaches. For example, Bret Bielema and Butch Jones were both in this category in 2019, and landed jobs (Illinois for Bielema, Arkansas State for Jones) after the 2020 season. Also, both the "Group of 5 coaches" and "Power 5 coordinators" categories have tiers based on how candidates are viewed in the marketplace.
The list is long, but I tried to reduce the number of names as much as possible, removing the category of coaches who could rise to the NFL (as well as NFL coaches who could land college jobs). While compiling the rundown, I was surprised at how many current Power 5 coaches could be on the move if the right jobs open. Another surprise: There are more candidates who are elite defensive coordinators than are offensive play-callers. There are some talented head coaches and assistants who didn't make the list, some of whom recently were candidates to move up, but the goal here is to identify the most realistic list, given the market and the potential vacancies in the 2021-22 carousel. I also tried to avoid including coaches with buyouts that make moves this year highly unlikely, such as Indiana's Tom Allen.
Let's get started.
James Franklin, Penn State: Franklin has by far the best job of anyone on this list, and only would depart Happy Valley for a select few programs. One of them could be USC, where coach Clay Helton is very much on the hot seat in 2021. Franklin, 49, has the personality and recruiting chops to succeed in the Los Angeles market, despite spending most of his career in the Eastern half of the country. Industry sources also believe he would connect well with USC athletic director Mike Bohn. The LSU job is much less likely to open, but if it does, athletic director Scott Woodward could make Franklin his latest flashy coaching hire.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Stoops has built consistency at Kentucky, which in turn has made unprecedented investments into football. UK boasts excellent facilities and an impressive recruiting operation. Stoops, 54, has made five consecutive bowl appearances, although the 2020 team took a step back record-wise (5-6). The ever-present question with Stoops is whether he has taken the program as far as it can go. He has won more than seven games just twice. If Michigan moves on from Jim Harbaugh, Stoops could be an option there. The former Iowa defensive back also might make sense at his alma mater whenever Kirk Ferentz retires.
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: Fleck's buyout from the 2019 contract he received drops from $4.5 million to $3 million this season, which seemingly will open up options for the 40-year-old. Minnesota should be an improved team this season, and while a repeat of the 11-2 performance from 2019 is unlikely, a solid record would further validate what Fleck does beyond the oft-discussed branding and culture elements. Fleck enjoys living in Minnesota and building the program there, but a higher-profile opening at, say, UCLA or Arizona State, could be tempting.
Jeff Hafley, Boston College: Hafley's incredibly fast rise -- he had been a career defensive backs coach until 2019 at Ohio State -- makes him a very intriguing candidate to watch. If he follows a solid first season at Boston College (6-5) with a stronger encore, he should generate attention for better Power 5 opportunities, especially in the Eastern half of the country. Could he be an option at Penn State if Franklin leaves? Or even at Michigan? Some insiders think the 42-year-old might become the defensive version of Ryan Day.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: Brown is 11-11 at West Virginia and will need a strong record this fall to merit a move, but he has a lot of ingredients that schools like. He's young (41) and extremely intelligent, he brings a background on offense, and he hasn't had any off-field problems. His overall record of 46-27 jumps out. The Big 12's future could be a factor for Brown as he looks ahead. If Stoops left Kentucky, Brown would be a natural candidate to return to his alma mater. He also could be an interesting candidate at Virginia Tech among other places.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: The question with Kiffin remains who would hire him and whether a somewhat controversial and hopscotching career will limit his options for another big move. He's an unquestionably talented offensive coach and has given Ole Miss exactly what it wanted in terms of excitement and attention since his arrival. Kiffin, 46, is only in his second year with the Rebels but boasts an improved team led by quarterback Matt Corral and other playmakers. There may not be many obvious landing spots for Kiffin in this cycle (he's not going back to USC), but he remains a fascinating candidate to watch.
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest: The longer Clawson remains at Wake Forest, the likelier it seems that he will be a lifer there. But certain schools would be smart to evaluate the 54-year-old, who has been incredibly consistent at one of the more challenging Power 5 jobs, despite a mini step back in 2020. Clawson lacks a true "wow" season at Wake Forest, never winning more than eight games, but he's a proven leader with some offensive flexibility who can handle challenging jobs. He seems best suited to stay in the ACC or take a Big Ten job.
Justin Wilcox, Cal: A highly anticipated 2020 season never really got on track for Cal, which was limited to four games and won only one. But the Bears could be sneaky good this fall. Wilcox is only .500 at Cal (21-21) and would need a strong season to move on, but he's a proven defensive strategist who has won some big games in Berkeley. Cal always will have some limitations in finances and other areas, and Wilcox, 44, could look to move up. The Oregon native has spent most of his career on the West Coast but also made coordinator stops at Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Scott Satterfield, Louisville: Satterfield might be the first coach to appear on both the hot seat and coaches-to-watch lists in the same year. Louisville certainly won't tolerate any flirting with other jobs, but if Satterfield, 48, delivers like he did in 2019, it might not matter. Despite a step back last year, Satterfield is 63-36 overall with Coach of the Year awards in both the ACC (2019) and Sun Belt (2018), as well as three Sun Belt titles. The North Carolina native ultimately might be a better fit closer to home, even if it's within the ACC (Virginia Tech).
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: There are two Group of 5 coaches on almost every school's wish list, and Fickell undoubtedly is one. The 48-year-old is 31-6 at Cincinnati the past three seasons, and returns his best team, which could challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff by beating No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 17 Indiana on the road, and running the table in the AAC. Fickell is very happy at Cincinnati and would only leave his home state for a Tier 1 job, ideally in the region. A potential Michigan vacancy would create some conflict for the former Ohio State coach and player. USC's Bohn hired Fickell at Cincinnati and surely would have interest if the Trojans make a coaching change.
Billy Napier, Louisiana: Napier is the other Group of 5 coach whose stock continues to soar. He has seemingly been involved in even more Power 5 coach vacancies than Fickell, most recently Auburn's last year, but will return to Louisiana for his fourth season. Napier, 42, is 28-11 with the Ragin' Cajuns and 21-4 the past two seasons with a win at Iowa State in 2020. There are two theories about Napier's next move: Either he waits for a truly elite job such as LSU, or he leaves the SEC footprint for potential vacancies such as Virginia Tech or Arizona State, where he served as offensive coordinator in 2017.
Jay Norvell, Nevada: After waiting longer than he should have for a head-coaching opportunity, Norvell is thriving at Nevada. He's 22-13 the past three seasons and returns quite possibly his best team, led by quarterback Carson Strong, a legit NFL draft prospect. Nevada visits Cal, Kansas State and Boise State in its first four games, so a splashy start will generate buzz. Norvell has interviewed for jobs at Missouri, South Carolina and Arizona in recent years. He's 58 but comes across as younger. His career résumé is geographically diverse, boasting Big Ten roots and coordinator experience in the Big 12 and Pac-12. Norvell has worked at several programs that could have vacancies this year (Arizona State, Iowa State, UCLA).
Sonny Dykes, SMU: Dykes is a perfect fit at SMU, and after already taking a Power 5 job (Cal) that didn't fit him, he should and will be selective about his next move. SMU is 17-6 the past two seasons, and returns what could be Dykes' strongest team, especially on defense. Dykes' reboot at SMU has impressed athletic directors, and he would have had a real shot at the Texas job if things hadn't worked out with Steve Sarkisian. The 51-year-old Dykes wouldn't be a slam dunk at Texas Tech, despite being an alum and the son of former football coach Spike Dykes. Sonny might look elsewhere, such as Arizona State.
Brent Brennan, San Jose State Spartans: Brennan's stock might be rising at just the right time, as the Pac-12 could feature some coaching movement in 2021. After a slow start at San Jose State, he guided the Spartans to their first conference title since 1990, their first 7-0 start since 1939 and their first AP Top 25 finish since 2012. The reigning Mountain West coach of the year brings back defensive player of the year Cade Hall and others, and could make another title push. Brennan, 48, is a former UCLA receiver with strong West Coast recruiting ties. He should be on the lists for potential openings at UCLA and Arizona State, and perhaps elsewhere.
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Hugh Freeze, Liberty Flames: Freeze will eventually be back in the Power 5, most likely at a program in the Southeast. The only question seems to be when. While his mistakes are known and some schools likely couldn't hire him, his success as an offensive play-caller and recruiter will ultimately be too tempting to ignore. Freeze's timing for a move might be off this year, as the SEC carousel is expected to be very light. Would Virginia Tech look at Freeze, 51, who is already in the state? He's 18-6 at Liberty, which faces Ole Miss, Louisiana and UAB this fall and will be led by standout quarterback Malik Willis. Freeze might be a more realistic mover in 2022, but if certain jobs open, look out.
Jeff Traylor, University of Texas at San Antonio: Few FBS coaches are better tied in to the Texas high school scene than Traylor, who spent a quarter-century coaching high school teams in the state before joining the University of Texas staff in 2015. He might not be a candidate for many Power 5 jobs outside Texas but certainly would be on the short list at Texas Tech, which likely would want a homegrown candidate if Matt Wells doesn't work out. Traylor went 7-5 and finished second in the Conference USA West Division in his debut season at UTSA. The 53-year-old could be a good option at SMU if Dykes moves on.
Sean Lewis, Kent State: The man who, at 31, became the youngest FBS coach is blossoming at one of the sport's most challenging programs. Lewis is 10-7 the past two seasons with two second-place finishes in the MAC East Division. He returns one of the top Group of 5 quarterbacks in Dustin Crum, and his reputation for crafting exciting offenses will only help his chances to move up. A former Wisconsin tight end, Lewis, now 35, is from the Chicago area, recruits the region well and could be a good fit for a Big Ten opening. He also could be on the radar in the Pac-12 or Cincinnati, if Fickell departs.
Jason Candle, Toledo: Most of us thought Candle would be gone by now, especially after winning MAC coach of the year honors back in 2017. He checks a lot of boxes athletic directors like and his connection to Iowa State's Matt Campbell -- teammates at Mount Union, colleagues at Toledo before Campbell got the top job and Candle eventually succeeded him -- adds some appeal. Candle, 41, ultimately needs to win a little more. He has spent his entire career in Ohio but likely could transition well to other areas. If Hafley leaves Boston College, Candle could be a fit there.
Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: McElwain enters his third season at Central Michigan, which won the MAC West Division in 2018 but is staring up at Ball State and others right now. Another big season could increase buzz around McElwain, who, at 59, likely has one big move left. The former Florida coach likely isn't going back to the Southeast, but could be an option out West, closer to his home territory of Montana. Would a Pac-12 school take a look at McElwain? Would Texas Tech? He has won coach of the year awards in three leagues (Mountain West, SEC, MAC) and boasts an overall record of 55-36.
Mike Neu, Ball State: Like several others in this category, Neu hopes to parlay a breakthrough season in 2020 into future success. After Ball State recorded losing records in Neu's first four seasons, the Cardinals won the MAC last fall, then beat previously undefeated San Jose State for the first bowl win in team history. A strong encore is expected and will create attention for Neu, 50, a former CFL and Arena League quarterback who came up as an Arena League coach and spent time on the New Orleans Saints' staff before leading his alma mater. There might not be many obvious fits for Neu this year, but he's certainly someone on the rise.
Tony Elliott, Clemson: We may never see a play-caller with Elliott's credentials stay at a premier program longer than he has, a testament to his selectivity and the draw of Clemson/Dabo Swinney. For a brief moment, Elliott, 41, seemed like he would take the Tennessee job, but he instead returned to Clemson. Will Elliott ever leave his alma mater? The mix of potential openings in the upcoming cycle suggest there's a better chance. Virginia Tech should make a strong push for Elliott if it makes a change, and Elliott, who grew up partly in California, could be a candidate at both USC and UCLA if jobs are open there.
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: There's a lot of buzz around Freeman, who picked Notre Dame over LSU for the defensive coordinator role but also interviewed for the head-coaching position at Illinois last offseason. Just 35, Freeman brings personality and pedigree as a former Ohio State linebacker who spent the past four seasons coordinating for Luke Fickell at Cincinnati. He's a top-notch recruiter who should have more autonomy with the scheme at Notre Dame. Freeman has spent his entire career in Indiana or his home state of Ohio, so it will be interesting to see his range of potential job opportunities.
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin: Leonhard might become the defensive version of Elliott, although he hasn't had quite as many head-coaching overtures just yet. He chose to remain at his alma mater after being courted for the Green Bay Packers coordinator job, a huge short-term win for Wisconsin. The question is whether Leonhard stays put and ultimately waits out Paul Chryst for the Wisconsin top job, or bounces to the NFL or another college position. He would be a strong candidate for any Big Ten vacancy, and Iowa State might look his way if Campbell was to depart. Leonhard, 38, likely doesn't have as wide a range of potential employers as others on the list.
Brent Venables, Clemson: Venables has a bit of a conundrum. He's nationally respected, has worked in multiple regions and brings a spirit that could boost certain Power 5 programs. He's also a 50-year-old career defensive assistant who has been reluctant to leave Clemson and might not be a slam-dunk hire for some schools. Like Napier, he was involved in talks for the Auburn job last season, and likely would be considered for most openings in the ACC, SEC or Big 12. But history shows that the older defensive coordinators get, the harder it becomes for them to land their first head-coaching job, so there's some urgency here.
Mike Elko, Texas A&M: One of the game's top defensive strategists, Elko has his unit rolling at Texas A&M, which should make a push for its first CFP appearance this fall. The timing seems right for Elko, 44, to leave College Station after the season. He has had chances to take Group of 5 jobs before and stayed put. The Texas A&M experience has allowed Elko to work in a different area and conference; his previous jobs were in the Midwest and on the East Coast. He still seemingly would be best suited for an ACC or Big Ten job, especially private schools. Elko is smart and proven but not necessarily flashy, which might limit his landing spots.
Alex Grinch, Oklahoma: Like Elko, Grinch has found the sweet spot with the development of his defense at Oklahoma, which is primed to finally make headway in the CFP. He talked with Illinois last year and should be a candidate for most Power 5 and top Group of 5 vacancies. Since 2014, Grinch has worked in four of the five power leagues, and at two premier programs in Ohio State and now Oklahoma. He has natural leadership skills and should become a head coach in the next two or three years.
Rhett Lashlee, Miami: The key for Lashlee's candidate profile was separating from longtime mentor Gus Malzahn and showing what he could do on his own. He began to do so with an unusual move to UConn in 2017, then found success as a coordinator at SMU and now Miami. Lashlee oversaw an offense that flashed at times last season, and returns standout quarterback D'Eriq King and other talented skill players. The 38-year-old from Arkansas has spent most of his career in the South and Southeast, and would be a candidate for certain Power 5 jobs (Texas Tech, Duke) as well as top Group of 5 openings (SMU, if Dykes departs).
Todd Monken, Georgia: One of the more interesting candidate profiles on the list, Monken actually held an FBS head-coaching job at Southern Miss but for the NFL left after going 9-5 in 2015. He seemed likely to remain in the pros but bounced back to Georgia, which began to turn a corner on offense late last season. Another step forward should propel Monken, 55, into conversations for big-time jobs. His collegiate experience is mostly in the South, but he's an Illinois native who also had two stints on the Oklahoma State staff.
Joe Moorhead, Oregon: Moorhead needs to be smart and selective with his next move, after taking a job (Mississippi State) where he didn't fit, in a region where he'd never worked before. While things ended prematurely in Starkville, Moorhead went 14-12 in two seasons and had successful runs as Fordham head coach and Penn State offensive coordinator. A strong 2021 season at Oregon could position Moorhead, 47, for head-coaching jobs, ideally in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic regions.
Graham Harrell, USC: The Air Raid coaching tree remains coveted, and Harrell should oversee a very good offense at USC, led by quarterback Kedon Slovis. USC's passing offense has thrived under Harrell, who helped boost North Texas' offense before coming to Los Angeles. Harrell is only 36 but was a finalist for Boise State's vacancy and interviewed at Washington State as well. He's also a former record-setting passer at Texas Tech, which might be looking for a coach, and would be a good fit for most programs in the Big 12/AAC footprint.
Tom Manning, Iowa State: The Campbell coaching tree will become a bigger factor in the carousel, and Manning's position as Iowa State's offensive coordinator helps his stock. Manning, 38, isn't the biggest personality, but his association with Iowa State's incredible rise and offensive development helps. He also has a year of NFL experience in his profile. If Campbell leaves and Iowa State doesn't look internally, Manning would be a strong candidate for some of the expected MAC openings.
Phil Longo, North Carolina: Like several others in this category, Longo will lead what should be one of the nation's top offenses in 2020. North Carolina returns quarterback Sam Howell, a Heisman Trophy candidate and a strong prospect for the 2022 NFL draft, to a team ranked No. 10 in the preseason AP poll. Longo, 53, spent most of his career in the lower levels of the sport but has done well as a Power 5 coordinator at Ole Miss and UNC. The New Jersey native could be a good fit for openings in the Northeast (Temple) or even Texas, where he coached at Sam Houston State for three seasons.
Kasey Dunn, Oklahoma State: Dunn is set to begin his 11th year at Oklahoma State and second as the team's offensive coordinator. At 52, he likely needs to make a head-coaching move soon, but has strong ties not only to the Big 12 but the Pac-12 and Mountain West. If jobs such as Nevada, San Jose State or Colorado State open, Dunn would be an intriguing candidate. Also, the growing focus on increasing diversity in the college football coaching ranks -- and the lack of Black offensive coordinators -- should put Dunn on the radar for athletic directors.
Josh Gattis, Michigan: Gattis' inclusion will raise some eyebrows, given Michigan's struggles on offense the past few years. While the issues at Michigan go beyond Gattis and ultimately start with Harbaugh, Gattis might have had a clearer path to becoming a head coach if he remained at Alabama. Still, Gattis is a dynamic personality who has worked at four Power 5 programs (two Big Ten, two SEC). He's a North Carolina native who played at Wake Forest and could be a fit in multiple regions. Gattis, 37, is also one of a few Black offensive coordinators in the Power 5. But he needs Michigan to take a big step forward this fall to be a legit candidate.
Mike Yurcich, Penn State: After a six-year run as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator, Yurcich is at his third program in as many years (Texas, Ohio State). The movement could be held against him, but he did well with Justin Fields in Columbus, and Texas ranked seventh nationally in scoring. A strong season at Penn State should put Yurcich, 45, on the radar for some potential MAC openings and possibly others. He grew up near Cleveland.
Tommy Rees, Notre Dame: Rees is really young (29) but extremely sharp and seems to be in no rush to leave his alma mater. But successful Notre Dame coordinators are almost always in play for head-coaching jobs. Rees has worked with Notre Dame's quarterbacks the past four seasons and enters his second year as the offensive coordinator. The questions are: What level of job Rees would take with the luxury of time on his side, and which athletic directors would hire him at this age? He grew up north of Chicago and makes sense for most vacancies in the Midwest.
Willie Simmons, Florida A&M: The increased attention on HBCU football and hiring more Black coaches in the FBS could help Simmons, who enters his third season at FAMU. Simmons, 40, has FBS coordinator experience at Middle Tennessee and boasts a 36-18 record as an FCS head coach at two stops. He would be a natural fit for certain Group of 5 programs, especially in the Sun Belt and Conference USA.
Curt Cignetti, James Madison: The last two James Madison coaches (Mike Houston, Everett Withers) have left to lead FBS programs, and Cignetti has positioned himself for a similar jump. He's 21-3 in two seasons at JMU and 88-29 overall as a head coach at the Division II and FCS levels. Cignetti is a little older (60) and may want to continue competing for national championships, but the Pittsburgh native also could go for jobs in the mid-Atlantic region or the Northeast.
Matt Entz, North Dakota State: Despite a disappointing spring season, Entz remains a viable candidate to move from the FCS to FBS. He coached North Dakota State to an undefeated season and a national title in 2019, and has been part of the Bison dynasty since 2014. The last two North Dakota State coaches, Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman, landed FBS gigs, and Entz, 48, should have his chance in the next few years if the team rebounds this fall.
Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill seemed like an obvious choice for the recent vacancy at Utah State, which instead picked an outsider in Blake Anderson. If Hill continues to win, though, an FBS program will give him a chance. He's 52-30 at Weber State and 37-10 the past four seasons. Hill, 46, has spent his entire career in one state at two programs (Utah and Weber State), which could work against him. But if a job like Nevada opens this year, Hill would be a natural fit.
Nick Hill, Southern Illinois: Hill has been on my radar for a while, but he received national attention last year after Southern Illinois stunned North Dakota State, ending the Bison's 39-game win streak. SIU went on to its first FCS playoff appearance under Hill, a former Salukis quarterback who played in the NFL and the Arena League. Hill is only 36 but could soon get traction for FBS jobs, especially Group of 5 gigs in the MAC and elsewhere in the Midwest.
LeVar Woods, Iowa: Special teams coordinators should start getting more traction for head-coaching positions. Marshall coach Charles Huff, for example, boosted his profile as special teams coordinator for Franklin at Penn State. Woods, a former Iowa and NFL linebacker, has coached linebackers, tight ends and now special teams at Iowa. His tight end room included George Kittle and first-round picks T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. The effort to diversify the college coaching ranks should lead to greater attention on coaches such as Woods, 43.
Joey McGuire, Baylor: I see some parallels between McGuire and UTSA's Traylor. McGuire came up as an elite high school coach in Texas, winning three state titles and making 12 consecutive playoff appearances at Cedar Hill. He then joined Matt Rhule's staff at Baylor and gained consideration for the top job when Rhule left for the NFL. There are seven Group of 5 programs in Texas and some could have openings this year. McGuire should be in the mix.
Louis Ayeni, Northwestern: Ayeni has been instrumental in building programs at both Iowa State and now Northwestern, which both reached their respective league title games in 2020. He started to gain a bit of traction for head-coaching positions in the past cycle (Kansas), which should accelerate if certain jobs open, including Toledo, where Ayeni worked from 2011 to 2013. Ayeni is one of the more respected recruiters and talent developers in the Midwest.
When it comes to the college football coaching carousel, the supply of candidates will always outweigh the demand for their services.
Not every coach who appears below will move up to a head-coaching position -- or, in some cases, better lead gigs than they already have -- when the carousel stops spinning sometime this winter or next spring. As noted in our coaching hot seat breakdown, the upcoming cycle might feature fewer vacancies than initially projected. But there will be movement, as always, and the goal here is to identify the coaches who will be most coveted for job openings in the coming months.
Like in the past, this list was divided into four categories: Power 5 head coaches, Group of 5 head coaches, Power 5 coordinators and a miscellaneous category that includes mostly FCS head coaches. For example, Bret Bielema and Butch Jones were both in this category in 2019, and landed jobs (Illinois for Bielema, Arkansas State for Jones) after the 2020 season. Also, both the "Group of 5 coaches" and "Power 5 coordinators" categories have tiers based on how candidates are viewed in the marketplace.
The list is long, but I tried to reduce the number of names as much as possible, removing the category of coaches who could rise to the NFL (as well as NFL coaches who could land college jobs). While compiling the rundown, I was surprised at how many current Power 5 coaches could be on the move if the right jobs open. Another surprise: There are more candidates who are elite defensive coordinators than are offensive play-callers. There are some talented head coaches and assistants who didn't make the list, some of whom recently were candidates to move up, but the goal here is to identify the most realistic list, given the market and the potential vacancies in the 2021-22 carousel. I also tried to avoid including coaches with buyouts that make moves this year highly unlikely, such as Indiana's Tom Allen.
Let's get started.
Power 5 head coaches who could make moves
Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Campbell is a familiar name in this category. He's regarded as one of the top attainable coaching candidates in the sport, both for bigger college jobs and the NFL. So far, he has remained loyal to Iowa State, where he's 32-19 the past four seasons with a Fiesta Bowl championship and a No. 9 AP finish in 2020. Campbell, 41, will have his most talented and experienced team this fall, as Iowa State is a bona fide College Football Playoff contender. The Cyclones likely are headed for a drop-off in 2022, and the Big 12's uncertain future could motivate Campbell to move on. The Ohio native would be a strong candidate at Michigan, other Tier 1 jobs in the area (Penn State, Notre Dame) and the NFL.James Franklin, Penn State: Franklin has by far the best job of anyone on this list, and only would depart Happy Valley for a select few programs. One of them could be USC, where coach Clay Helton is very much on the hot seat in 2021. Franklin, 49, has the personality and recruiting chops to succeed in the Los Angeles market, despite spending most of his career in the Eastern half of the country. Industry sources also believe he would connect well with USC athletic director Mike Bohn. The LSU job is much less likely to open, but if it does, athletic director Scott Woodward could make Franklin his latest flashy coaching hire.
Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Stoops has built consistency at Kentucky, which in turn has made unprecedented investments into football. UK boasts excellent facilities and an impressive recruiting operation. Stoops, 54, has made five consecutive bowl appearances, although the 2020 team took a step back record-wise (5-6). The ever-present question with Stoops is whether he has taken the program as far as it can go. He has won more than seven games just twice. If Michigan moves on from Jim Harbaugh, Stoops could be an option there. The former Iowa defensive back also might make sense at his alma mater whenever Kirk Ferentz retires.
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: Fleck's buyout from the 2019 contract he received drops from $4.5 million to $3 million this season, which seemingly will open up options for the 40-year-old. Minnesota should be an improved team this season, and while a repeat of the 11-2 performance from 2019 is unlikely, a solid record would further validate what Fleck does beyond the oft-discussed branding and culture elements. Fleck enjoys living in Minnesota and building the program there, but a higher-profile opening at, say, UCLA or Arizona State, could be tempting.
Jeff Hafley, Boston College: Hafley's incredibly fast rise -- he had been a career defensive backs coach until 2019 at Ohio State -- makes him a very intriguing candidate to watch. If he follows a solid first season at Boston College (6-5) with a stronger encore, he should generate attention for better Power 5 opportunities, especially in the Eastern half of the country. Could he be an option at Penn State if Franklin leaves? Or even at Michigan? Some insiders think the 42-year-old might become the defensive version of Ryan Day.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: Brown is 11-11 at West Virginia and will need a strong record this fall to merit a move, but he has a lot of ingredients that schools like. He's young (41) and extremely intelligent, he brings a background on offense, and he hasn't had any off-field problems. His overall record of 46-27 jumps out. The Big 12's future could be a factor for Brown as he looks ahead. If Stoops left Kentucky, Brown would be a natural candidate to return to his alma mater. He also could be an interesting candidate at Virginia Tech among other places.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss: The question with Kiffin remains who would hire him and whether a somewhat controversial and hopscotching career will limit his options for another big move. He's an unquestionably talented offensive coach and has given Ole Miss exactly what it wanted in terms of excitement and attention since his arrival. Kiffin, 46, is only in his second year with the Rebels but boasts an improved team led by quarterback Matt Corral and other playmakers. There may not be many obvious landing spots for Kiffin in this cycle (he's not going back to USC), but he remains a fascinating candidate to watch.
Dave Clawson, Wake Forest: The longer Clawson remains at Wake Forest, the likelier it seems that he will be a lifer there. But certain schools would be smart to evaluate the 54-year-old, who has been incredibly consistent at one of the more challenging Power 5 jobs, despite a mini step back in 2020. Clawson lacks a true "wow" season at Wake Forest, never winning more than eight games, but he's a proven leader with some offensive flexibility who can handle challenging jobs. He seems best suited to stay in the ACC or take a Big Ten job.
Justin Wilcox, Cal: A highly anticipated 2020 season never really got on track for Cal, which was limited to four games and won only one. But the Bears could be sneaky good this fall. Wilcox is only .500 at Cal (21-21) and would need a strong season to move on, but he's a proven defensive strategist who has won some big games in Berkeley. Cal always will have some limitations in finances and other areas, and Wilcox, 44, could look to move up. The Oregon native has spent most of his career on the West Coast but also made coordinator stops at Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Scott Satterfield, Louisville: Satterfield might be the first coach to appear on both the hot seat and coaches-to-watch lists in the same year. Louisville certainly won't tolerate any flirting with other jobs, but if Satterfield, 48, delivers like he did in 2019, it might not matter. Despite a step back last year, Satterfield is 63-36 overall with Coach of the Year awards in both the ACC (2019) and Sun Belt (2018), as well as three Sun Belt titles. The North Carolina native ultimately might be a better fit closer to home, even if it's within the ACC (Virginia Tech).
Group of 5 coaches who could move up (Tier 1)
Luke Fickell, Cincinnati: There are two Group of 5 coaches on almost every school's wish list, and Fickell undoubtedly is one. The 48-year-old is 31-6 at Cincinnati the past three seasons, and returns his best team, which could challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff by beating No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 17 Indiana on the road, and running the table in the AAC. Fickell is very happy at Cincinnati and would only leave his home state for a Tier 1 job, ideally in the region. A potential Michigan vacancy would create some conflict for the former Ohio State coach and player. USC's Bohn hired Fickell at Cincinnati and surely would have interest if the Trojans make a coaching change.
Billy Napier, Louisiana: Napier is the other Group of 5 coach whose stock continues to soar. He has seemingly been involved in even more Power 5 coach vacancies than Fickell, most recently Auburn's last year, but will return to Louisiana for his fourth season. Napier, 42, is 28-11 with the Ragin' Cajuns and 21-4 the past two seasons with a win at Iowa State in 2020. There are two theories about Napier's next move: Either he waits for a truly elite job such as LSU, or he leaves the SEC footprint for potential vacancies such as Virginia Tech or Arizona State, where he served as offensive coordinator in 2017.
Other Group of 5 coaches to watch
Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina: Chadwell has quickly risen from virtual unknown to surging Group of 5 coaching prospect. He guided Coastal Carolina to a dream season in 2020, as the Chanticleers started 11-0, knocked off BYU and finished No. 14 in the final AP poll. Another double-digit win season seems likely as Coastal Carolina returns quarterback Grayson McCall and a large group of super seniors. Chadwell, 44, is a unique candidate since he's never worked for a Power 5 program and has spent all but one year of his career in South Carolina or Tennessee. Virginia Tech would be a natural landing spot this year, but there may not be many other openings that fit Chadwell.Jay Norvell, Nevada: After waiting longer than he should have for a head-coaching opportunity, Norvell is thriving at Nevada. He's 22-13 the past three seasons and returns quite possibly his best team, led by quarterback Carson Strong, a legit NFL draft prospect. Nevada visits Cal, Kansas State and Boise State in its first four games, so a splashy start will generate buzz. Norvell has interviewed for jobs at Missouri, South Carolina and Arizona in recent years. He's 58 but comes across as younger. His career résumé is geographically diverse, boasting Big Ten roots and coordinator experience in the Big 12 and Pac-12. Norvell has worked at several programs that could have vacancies this year (Arizona State, Iowa State, UCLA).
Sonny Dykes, SMU: Dykes is a perfect fit at SMU, and after already taking a Power 5 job (Cal) that didn't fit him, he should and will be selective about his next move. SMU is 17-6 the past two seasons, and returns what could be Dykes' strongest team, especially on defense. Dykes' reboot at SMU has impressed athletic directors, and he would have had a real shot at the Texas job if things hadn't worked out with Steve Sarkisian. The 51-year-old Dykes wouldn't be a slam dunk at Texas Tech, despite being an alum and the son of former football coach Spike Dykes. Sonny might look elsewhere, such as Arizona State.
Brent Brennan, San Jose State Spartans: Brennan's stock might be rising at just the right time, as the Pac-12 could feature some coaching movement in 2021. After a slow start at San Jose State, he guided the Spartans to their first conference title since 1990, their first 7-0 start since 1939 and their first AP Top 25 finish since 2012. The reigning Mountain West coach of the year brings back defensive player of the year Cade Hall and others, and could make another title push. Brennan, 48, is a former UCLA receiver with strong West Coast recruiting ties. He should be on the lists for potential openings at UCLA and Arizona State, and perhaps elsewhere.
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Hugh Freeze, Liberty Flames: Freeze will eventually be back in the Power 5, most likely at a program in the Southeast. The only question seems to be when. While his mistakes are known and some schools likely couldn't hire him, his success as an offensive play-caller and recruiter will ultimately be too tempting to ignore. Freeze's timing for a move might be off this year, as the SEC carousel is expected to be very light. Would Virginia Tech look at Freeze, 51, who is already in the state? He's 18-6 at Liberty, which faces Ole Miss, Louisiana and UAB this fall and will be led by standout quarterback Malik Willis. Freeze might be a more realistic mover in 2022, but if certain jobs open, look out.
Jeff Traylor, University of Texas at San Antonio: Few FBS coaches are better tied in to the Texas high school scene than Traylor, who spent a quarter-century coaching high school teams in the state before joining the University of Texas staff in 2015. He might not be a candidate for many Power 5 jobs outside Texas but certainly would be on the short list at Texas Tech, which likely would want a homegrown candidate if Matt Wells doesn't work out. Traylor went 7-5 and finished second in the Conference USA West Division in his debut season at UTSA. The 53-year-old could be a good option at SMU if Dykes moves on.
Sean Lewis, Kent State: The man who, at 31, became the youngest FBS coach is blossoming at one of the sport's most challenging programs. Lewis is 10-7 the past two seasons with two second-place finishes in the MAC East Division. He returns one of the top Group of 5 quarterbacks in Dustin Crum, and his reputation for crafting exciting offenses will only help his chances to move up. A former Wisconsin tight end, Lewis, now 35, is from the Chicago area, recruits the region well and could be a good fit for a Big Ten opening. He also could be on the radar in the Pac-12 or Cincinnati, if Fickell departs.
Jason Candle, Toledo: Most of us thought Candle would be gone by now, especially after winning MAC coach of the year honors back in 2017. He checks a lot of boxes athletic directors like and his connection to Iowa State's Matt Campbell -- teammates at Mount Union, colleagues at Toledo before Campbell got the top job and Candle eventually succeeded him -- adds some appeal. Candle, 41, ultimately needs to win a little more. He has spent his entire career in Ohio but likely could transition well to other areas. If Hafley leaves Boston College, Candle could be a fit there.
Jim McElwain, Central Michigan: McElwain enters his third season at Central Michigan, which won the MAC West Division in 2018 but is staring up at Ball State and others right now. Another big season could increase buzz around McElwain, who, at 59, likely has one big move left. The former Florida coach likely isn't going back to the Southeast, but could be an option out West, closer to his home territory of Montana. Would a Pac-12 school take a look at McElwain? Would Texas Tech? He has won coach of the year awards in three leagues (Mountain West, SEC, MAC) and boasts an overall record of 55-36.
Mike Neu, Ball State: Like several others in this category, Neu hopes to parlay a breakthrough season in 2020 into future success. After Ball State recorded losing records in Neu's first four seasons, the Cardinals won the MAC last fall, then beat previously undefeated San Jose State for the first bowl win in team history. A strong encore is expected and will create attention for Neu, 50, a former CFL and Arena League quarterback who came up as an Arena League coach and spent time on the New Orleans Saints' staff before leading his alma mater. There might not be many obvious fits for Neu this year, but he's certainly someone on the rise.
Power 5 coordinators to watch (Tier 1)
Bill O'Brien, Alabama: Coach Nick Saban's latest coordinator coup brought the former Penn State and Houston Texans coach to Tuscaloosa as the team's offensive play-caller. Saban is the sport's ultimate king-maker, and if O'Brien succeeds with quarterback Bryce Young this fall, he likely will be in the mix for head-coaching opportunities. The question would be: Stay in college or return to the NFL? If Michigan dumps Harbaugh, expect O'Brien to be a prime candidate there. The former ACC assistant could also be an intriguing name at Virginia Tech.Tony Elliott, Clemson: We may never see a play-caller with Elliott's credentials stay at a premier program longer than he has, a testament to his selectivity and the draw of Clemson/Dabo Swinney. For a brief moment, Elliott, 41, seemed like he would take the Tennessee job, but he instead returned to Clemson. Will Elliott ever leave his alma mater? The mix of potential openings in the upcoming cycle suggest there's a better chance. Virginia Tech should make a strong push for Elliott if it makes a change, and Elliott, who grew up partly in California, could be a candidate at both USC and UCLA if jobs are open there.
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: There's a lot of buzz around Freeman, who picked Notre Dame over LSU for the defensive coordinator role but also interviewed for the head-coaching position at Illinois last offseason. Just 35, Freeman brings personality and pedigree as a former Ohio State linebacker who spent the past four seasons coordinating for Luke Fickell at Cincinnati. He's a top-notch recruiter who should have more autonomy with the scheme at Notre Dame. Freeman has spent his entire career in Indiana or his home state of Ohio, so it will be interesting to see his range of potential job opportunities.
Jim Leonhard, Wisconsin: Leonhard might become the defensive version of Elliott, although he hasn't had quite as many head-coaching overtures just yet. He chose to remain at his alma mater after being courted for the Green Bay Packers coordinator job, a huge short-term win for Wisconsin. The question is whether Leonhard stays put and ultimately waits out Paul Chryst for the Wisconsin top job, or bounces to the NFL or another college position. He would be a strong candidate for any Big Ten vacancy, and Iowa State might look his way if Campbell was to depart. Leonhard, 38, likely doesn't have as wide a range of potential employers as others on the list.
Brent Venables, Clemson: Venables has a bit of a conundrum. He's nationally respected, has worked in multiple regions and brings a spirit that could boost certain Power 5 programs. He's also a 50-year-old career defensive assistant who has been reluctant to leave Clemson and might not be a slam-dunk hire for some schools. Like Napier, he was involved in talks for the Auburn job last season, and likely would be considered for most openings in the ACC, SEC or Big 12. But history shows that the older defensive coordinators get, the harder it becomes for them to land their first head-coaching job, so there's some urgency here.
Mike Elko, Texas A&M: One of the game's top defensive strategists, Elko has his unit rolling at Texas A&M, which should make a push for its first CFP appearance this fall. The timing seems right for Elko, 44, to leave College Station after the season. He has had chances to take Group of 5 jobs before and stayed put. The Texas A&M experience has allowed Elko to work in a different area and conference; his previous jobs were in the Midwest and on the East Coast. He still seemingly would be best suited for an ACC or Big Ten job, especially private schools. Elko is smart and proven but not necessarily flashy, which might limit his landing spots.
Alex Grinch, Oklahoma: Like Elko, Grinch has found the sweet spot with the development of his defense at Oklahoma, which is primed to finally make headway in the CFP. He talked with Illinois last year and should be a candidate for most Power 5 and top Group of 5 vacancies. Since 2014, Grinch has worked in four of the five power leagues, and at two premier programs in Ohio State and now Oklahoma. He has natural leadership skills and should become a head coach in the next two or three years.
Other Power 5 coordinators to watch
Dan Lanning, Georgia: Lanning's stock is surging, and I was tempted to put him in Tier 1. He's still very young (35) and serves as defensive coordinator under a defensive-minded head coach in Kirby Smart. But Lanning deserves a chunk of the credit for Georgia's elite play on defense. He also has a geographically diverse profile with stops at Pitt, Arizona State and Memphis early in his career. The Kansas City native talked with Kansas about its vacancy and should continue to get interviews for some Power 5 and top Group of 5 jobs.College football's top 100
Rhett Lashlee, Miami: The key for Lashlee's candidate profile was separating from longtime mentor Gus Malzahn and showing what he could do on his own. He began to do so with an unusual move to UConn in 2017, then found success as a coordinator at SMU and now Miami. Lashlee oversaw an offense that flashed at times last season, and returns standout quarterback D'Eriq King and other talented skill players. The 38-year-old from Arkansas has spent most of his career in the South and Southeast, and would be a candidate for certain Power 5 jobs (Texas Tech, Duke) as well as top Group of 5 openings (SMU, if Dykes departs).
Todd Monken, Georgia: One of the more interesting candidate profiles on the list, Monken actually held an FBS head-coaching job at Southern Miss but for the NFL left after going 9-5 in 2015. He seemed likely to remain in the pros but bounced back to Georgia, which began to turn a corner on offense late last season. Another step forward should propel Monken, 55, into conversations for big-time jobs. His collegiate experience is mostly in the South, but he's an Illinois native who also had two stints on the Oklahoma State staff.
Joe Moorhead, Oregon: Moorhead needs to be smart and selective with his next move, after taking a job (Mississippi State) where he didn't fit, in a region where he'd never worked before. While things ended prematurely in Starkville, Moorhead went 14-12 in two seasons and had successful runs as Fordham head coach and Penn State offensive coordinator. A strong 2021 season at Oregon could position Moorhead, 47, for head-coaching jobs, ideally in the Northeast or mid-Atlantic regions.
Graham Harrell, USC: The Air Raid coaching tree remains coveted, and Harrell should oversee a very good offense at USC, led by quarterback Kedon Slovis. USC's passing offense has thrived under Harrell, who helped boost North Texas' offense before coming to Los Angeles. Harrell is only 36 but was a finalist for Boise State's vacancy and interviewed at Washington State as well. He's also a former record-setting passer at Texas Tech, which might be looking for a coach, and would be a good fit for most programs in the Big 12/AAC footprint.
Tom Manning, Iowa State: The Campbell coaching tree will become a bigger factor in the carousel, and Manning's position as Iowa State's offensive coordinator helps his stock. Manning, 38, isn't the biggest personality, but his association with Iowa State's incredible rise and offensive development helps. He also has a year of NFL experience in his profile. If Campbell leaves and Iowa State doesn't look internally, Manning would be a strong candidate for some of the expected MAC openings.
Phil Longo, North Carolina: Like several others in this category, Longo will lead what should be one of the nation's top offenses in 2020. North Carolina returns quarterback Sam Howell, a Heisman Trophy candidate and a strong prospect for the 2022 NFL draft, to a team ranked No. 10 in the preseason AP poll. Longo, 53, spent most of his career in the lower levels of the sport but has done well as a Power 5 coordinator at Ole Miss and UNC. The New Jersey native could be a good fit for openings in the Northeast (Temple) or even Texas, where he coached at Sam Houston State for three seasons.
Kasey Dunn, Oklahoma State: Dunn is set to begin his 11th year at Oklahoma State and second as the team's offensive coordinator. At 52, he likely needs to make a head-coaching move soon, but has strong ties not only to the Big 12 but the Pac-12 and Mountain West. If jobs such as Nevada, San Jose State or Colorado State open, Dunn would be an intriguing candidate. Also, the growing focus on increasing diversity in the college football coaching ranks -- and the lack of Black offensive coordinators -- should put Dunn on the radar for athletic directors.
Josh Gattis, Michigan: Gattis' inclusion will raise some eyebrows, given Michigan's struggles on offense the past few years. While the issues at Michigan go beyond Gattis and ultimately start with Harbaugh, Gattis might have had a clearer path to becoming a head coach if he remained at Alabama. Still, Gattis is a dynamic personality who has worked at four Power 5 programs (two Big Ten, two SEC). He's a North Carolina native who played at Wake Forest and could be a fit in multiple regions. Gattis, 37, is also one of a few Black offensive coordinators in the Power 5. But he needs Michigan to take a big step forward this fall to be a legit candidate.
Mike Yurcich, Penn State: After a six-year run as Oklahoma State's offensive coordinator, Yurcich is at his third program in as many years (Texas, Ohio State). The movement could be held against him, but he did well with Justin Fields in Columbus, and Texas ranked seventh nationally in scoring. A strong season at Penn State should put Yurcich, 45, on the radar for some potential MAC openings and possibly others. He grew up near Cleveland.
Tommy Rees, Notre Dame: Rees is really young (29) but extremely sharp and seems to be in no rush to leave his alma mater. But successful Notre Dame coordinators are almost always in play for head-coaching jobs. Rees has worked with Notre Dame's quarterbacks the past four seasons and enters his second year as the offensive coordinator. The questions are: What level of job Rees would take with the luxury of time on his side, and which athletic directors would hire him at this age? He grew up north of Chicago and makes sense for most vacancies in the Midwest.
Others to watch
Deion Sanders, Jackson State: Coach Prime predictably has generated unprecedented attention for Jackson State and the historically Black colleges and universities (HBCU) scene. He was on the radar for FBS jobs even before taking the Jackson State position, and brings the hype and recruiting skill that some athletic directors covet. After going 4-3 this spring, Sanders, 54, could parlay a strong fall season into consideration at programs such as Florida International or North Texas.Willie Simmons, Florida A&M: The increased attention on HBCU football and hiring more Black coaches in the FBS could help Simmons, who enters his third season at FAMU. Simmons, 40, has FBS coordinator experience at Middle Tennessee and boasts a 36-18 record as an FCS head coach at two stops. He would be a natural fit for certain Group of 5 programs, especially in the Sun Belt and Conference USA.
Curt Cignetti, James Madison: The last two James Madison coaches (Mike Houston, Everett Withers) have left to lead FBS programs, and Cignetti has positioned himself for a similar jump. He's 21-3 in two seasons at JMU and 88-29 overall as a head coach at the Division II and FCS levels. Cignetti is a little older (60) and may want to continue competing for national championships, but the Pittsburgh native also could go for jobs in the mid-Atlantic region or the Northeast.
Matt Entz, North Dakota State: Despite a disappointing spring season, Entz remains a viable candidate to move from the FCS to FBS. He coached North Dakota State to an undefeated season and a national title in 2019, and has been part of the Bison dynasty since 2014. The last two North Dakota State coaches, Craig Bohl and Chris Klieman, landed FBS gigs, and Entz, 48, should have his chance in the next few years if the team rebounds this fall.
Jay Hill, Weber State: Hill seemed like an obvious choice for the recent vacancy at Utah State, which instead picked an outsider in Blake Anderson. If Hill continues to win, though, an FBS program will give him a chance. He's 52-30 at Weber State and 37-10 the past four seasons. Hill, 46, has spent his entire career in one state at two programs (Utah and Weber State), which could work against him. But if a job like Nevada opens this year, Hill would be a natural fit.
Nick Hill, Southern Illinois: Hill has been on my radar for a while, but he received national attention last year after Southern Illinois stunned North Dakota State, ending the Bison's 39-game win streak. SIU went on to its first FCS playoff appearance under Hill, a former Salukis quarterback who played in the NFL and the Arena League. Hill is only 36 but could soon get traction for FBS jobs, especially Group of 5 gigs in the MAC and elsewhere in the Midwest.
LeVar Woods, Iowa: Special teams coordinators should start getting more traction for head-coaching positions. Marshall coach Charles Huff, for example, boosted his profile as special teams coordinator for Franklin at Penn State. Woods, a former Iowa and NFL linebacker, has coached linebackers, tight ends and now special teams at Iowa. His tight end room included George Kittle and first-round picks T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant. The effort to diversify the college coaching ranks should lead to greater attention on coaches such as Woods, 43.
Joey McGuire, Baylor: I see some parallels between McGuire and UTSA's Traylor. McGuire came up as an elite high school coach in Texas, winning three state titles and making 12 consecutive playoff appearances at Cedar Hill. He then joined Matt Rhule's staff at Baylor and gained consideration for the top job when Rhule left for the NFL. There are seven Group of 5 programs in Texas and some could have openings this year. McGuire should be in the mix.
Louis Ayeni, Northwestern: Ayeni has been instrumental in building programs at both Iowa State and now Northwestern, which both reached their respective league title games in 2020. He started to gain a bit of traction for head-coaching positions in the past cycle (Kansas), which should accelerate if certain jobs open, including Toledo, where Ayeni worked from 2011 to 2013. Ayeni is one of the more respected recruiters and talent developers in the Midwest.
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