Perspective, It Helps (sort of)

[TheRedSon]

I keep track of points scored per possession during the college football season. I do it for every FBS team. I'm a nerd who's ADHD leans towards hyper focus more than distraction... It works for me I guess. Anyway, before I show you a list I need to point out that I don't count garbage possessions. That is, I don't count any possession after a 28, 24, or 21 point lead at the end of the first three quarters, or after a 16 point lead has been reached in the fourth quarter. The exception to this rule is when the trailing team scores immediately following the possession in which that number was first reached. That means I cut your most recent game with Kansas State at half time when it was 31-7 (I also cut the Louisville-North Carolina game at that point even though it got interesting in the second half). The only other thing I can think of to keep in mind is defensive and return points don't count in this metric.

Here's the national top ten in offensive points/possession

1. Oregon - 4.13
2. Kansas State - 3.88
3. Louisiana Tech - 3.87
4. Baylor - 3.75
5. Louisville - 3.73
6. Texas - 3.67
7. Texas Tech - 3.59
8. West Virginia - 3.54
9. Alabama - 3.36
10. Oklahoma - 3.35

You may recognize a few of those teams from the last few weeks. You've also played #20 on that list (Marshall) and your defense was fine in the first half when the game was still somewhat in question. Other than Louisville you have to go all the way to #32 to find the next member of your former conference (Cincinnati, 2.64).

So, yes, your defense is bad. It ranks 121st of 124 in the corresponding defensive metric, but I don't think anyone (well, anyone other than Texas and Baylor perhaps) has faced as difficult a task as your defense has so far this year.

That said... What's going on with your offense the last two weeks?

 

[mountaineer fan]

Thanks for the post. Do you have the ability to tell us how Kansas St., Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech's points per possession in the games against WVU stack up to their other games? Given we are only half way through the season, are those teams so highly ranked in part because of our poor defense?

 

[amath13]

Originally posted by TheRedSon:

I keep track of points scored per possession during the college football season. I do it for every FBS team. I'm a nerd who's ADHD leans towards hyper focus more than distraction... It works for me I guess. Anyway, before I show you a list I need to point out that I don't count garbage possessions. That is, I don't count any possession after a 28, 24, or 21 point lead at the end of the first three quarters, or after a 16 point lead has been reached in the fourth quarter. The exception to this rule is when the trailing team scores immediately following the possession in which that number was first reached. That means I cut your most recent game with Kansas State at half time when it was 31-7 (I also cut the Louisville-North Carolina game at that point even though it got interesting in the second half). The only other thing I can think of to keep in mind is defensive and return points don't count in this metric.

Here's the national top ten in offensive points/possession

1. Oregon - 4.13
2. Kansas State - 3.88
3. Louisiana Tech - 3.87
4. Baylor - 3.75
5. Louisville - 3.73
6. Texas - 3.67
7. Texas Tech - 3.59
8. West Virginia - 3.54
9. Alabama - 3.36
10. Oklahoma - 3.35

You may recognize a few of those teams from the last few weeks. You've also played #20 on that list (Marshall) and your defense was fine in the first half when the game was still somewhat in question. Other than Louisville you have to go all the way to #32 to find the next member of your former conference (Cincinnati, 2.64).

So, yes, your defense is bad. It ranks 121st of 124 in the corresponding defensive metric, but I don't think anyone (well, anyone other than Texas and Baylor perhaps) has faced as difficult a task as your defense has so far this year.

That said... What's going on with your offense the last two weeks?

I tried to warn you about our defense. It is going to go down as one of the worst in college football history. I realize we played in the Big East, but our defense has NEVER been this bad. We played the Big 12 champs in Oklahoma in 2007 & gave up 28 points to them, but still won by 20. And I realize that was a 1 game scenario and it doesn't play out over the season, but I guarantee you those defenses we had in the Big East with a different coaching staff would never be this bad. We might have given up around 30-35 points per game, but not 50+ in league play. It's downright comical how out of position our players are and it is only getting worse as the season goes on. I honestly don't feel confident in another win until the Kansas game. And even that's a tossup at this point the way we're playing defensively.

 

[Cheers]

Is that more a reflection on US than THEM? We were the ones giving up a TON of those points. Sadly, we are a big contributor to those rankings.

 

[TheRedSon]

MountaineerFan: Yes I can do that. I will show you how you compared with those four teams vs their other opponents after I get off today. I don't think they're where they are simply because of your defense though. It will be interesting to find out. I can tell you Texas scored 3.4 points/possession against my team, Oklahoma State, and either 3.45 or 3.5 against your's. I remember that because there were some guys on our board complaining about our defense not being as good/aggressive as your's as the difference in beating Texas, so I wrote a post addressing it. Basically they were equally successful against OSU's and West Virginia's defenses.

 

[TheRedSon]

If the Kansas game is a toss up it's because of the way your offense has played the last two weeks... Obviously your defense needs to improve a lot, but you can't win Big 12 games scoring 14 points.

You did try to warn me. Fortunately I didn't put any money on either of the games I picked them in the last two weeks. I think there is a difference between bad and bad in the Big 12 though. A lot of the very best offensive coaches in the country call this league home, and kids in Texas, where all the rest of us recruit heavily, are growing up in these systems now.

I like this metric because it erases the effects of pace when comparing teams. Giving 31 points to LSU means your defense probably had a very bad day or you turned the ball over on short fields a lot. Giving up 31 to OSU, as Iowa State did Saturday, probably means you played pretty good defense (they held us to around 2.4 points/possession, which is about as good as it gets outside of a monsoon or a change in game plan like we had at Kansas). In that respect, giving up 50 to Baylor is probably similar to giving up 30 against Rutgers or Pittsburgh. Still, it took looking at them this way to prove to myself that there is a problem, and the last two weeks is when it became obvious. They were still under 3/possession prior to the Tech game, and at that time Baylor and Texas were both in the top 3 on that list (with West Virginia btw).

I don't think your defense is going to be historically bad unless you mean historically bad for West Virginia. Baylor is actually worse (they're #123 of 124). You've essentially run the gauntlet the first four weeks of this season. Oklahoma's offense isn't quite as dynamic as those other four, especially if your defense can find a way to rattle Landry. I've yet to see him play well against a defense that could apply pressure. OSU is the next best offense on your schedule by this metric, but they're #29. Perhaps my boys will be healthier by then and look more like what we hoped from them, but I doubt it now. Iowa State and Kansas aren't likely to light it up unless their fed the football. I don't really know what TCU is anymore, so I'll leave that one alone. You will probably have trouble with their speed at receiver. They're probably the second fastest receiving corps after Baylor.

Speaking of historically bad though, Hawaii is actually #124 in defensive points/possession... AND offensive points/possession.

 

[amath13]

Originally posted by TheRedSon:
If the Kansas game is a toss up it's because of the way your offense has played the last two weeks... Obviously your defense needs to improve a lot, but you can't win Big 12 games scoring 14 points.

You did try to warn me. Fortunately I didn't put any money on either of the games I picked them in the last two weeks. I think there is a difference between bad and bad in the Big 12 though. A lot of the very best offensive coaches in the country call this league home, and kids in Texas, where all the rest of us recruit heavily, are growing up in these systems now.

I like this metric because it erases the effects of pace when comparing teams. Giving 31 points to LSU means your defense probably had a very bad day or you turned the ball over on short fields a lot. Giving up 31 to OSU, as Iowa State did Saturday, probably means you played pretty good defense (they held us to around 2.4 points/possession, which is about as good as it gets outside of a monsoon or a change in game plan like we had at Kansas). In that respect, giving up 50 to Baylor is probably similar to giving up 30 against Rutgers or Pittsburgh. Still, it took looking at them this way to prove to myself that there is a problem, and the last two weeks is when it became obvious. They were still under 3/possession prior to the Tech game, and at that time Baylor and Texas were both in the top 3 on that list (with West Virginia btw).

I don't think your defense is going to be historically bad unless you mean historically bad for West Virginia. Baylor is actually worse (they're #123 of 124). You've essentially run the gauntlet the first four weeks of this season. Oklahoma's offense isn't quite as dynamic as those other four, especially if your defense can find a way to rattle Landry. I've yet to see him play well against a defense that could apply pressure. OSU is the next best offense on your schedule by this metric, but they're #29. Perhaps my boys will be healthier by then and look more like what we hoped from them, but I doubt it now. Iowa State and Kansas aren't likely to light it up unless their fed the football. I don't really know what TCU is anymore, so I'll leave that one alone. You will probably have trouble with their speed at receiver. They're probably the second fastest receiving corps after Baylor.

Speaking of historically bad though, Hawaii is actually #124 in defensive points/possession... AND offensive points/possession.

I'm not 100% sure what happened to our offense, but I have to think some of it is the 'pressing' that happens when we get so far behind. Geno wants to score 14 points on 1 play & you just can't do that. If you can get up big on us, our offense pretty much folds it seems. Another part of the problem is that Texas Tech & Kansas State were able to get pressure up the middle on Geno without blitzing. That is the kind of pressure that bothers Geno the most. Not pressure from the outside like Texas was able to do a few weeks ago. At any rate, you are correct. If the offense doesn't get it's mojo back, Kansas is likely our last chance at a win.

 

[TheRedSon]

Originally posted by mountaineer fan:
Thanks for the post. Do you have the ability to tell us how Kansas St., Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech's points per possession in the games against WVU stack up to their other games? Given we are only half way through the season, are those teams so highly ranked in part because of our poor defense?

Baylor, 3.75 points/possession, #4 nationally
vs. SMU (#63, 2.18 points/possession allowed) - 3.80/possession (10 possessions, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Louisiana-Monroe (#73, 2.32) - 4.00 (12, 6 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 4.50 (14, 9 TD's)
vs. TCU (#36, 1.79) - 2.33 (9, 3 TD's)
@ Texas (#100, 2.94) - 3.64 (14, 6 TD's, 3 FG's)

So Baylor's best offensive showing was against West Virginia, but with the exception of the TCU game (4 TO's in those 9 possessions) they played exceptionally well anyway. If they had scored 3.64 in all five games, as they did against Texas, they would still rank #9 nationally. I would also point out that against SMU they started sluggish and never played with what I'd consider 100% effort. I was at that game. In the ULM game took a two score lead into or early in the fourth quarter and played a little keep away, as much as they ever do anyway. They could have scored once more probably. Against your team they needed every bit of that effort just to keep it close.

Texas, 3.67 p/p, #8 nationally
vs. Wyoming (#104, 3.08) - 3.80 (10, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 5.67 (6, 4 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ Ole Miss (#55, 2.07) - 5.00 (9, 6 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Oklahoma State (#40, 1.90) - 3.50 (10, 5 TD's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 3.45 (11, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 0.00 (8, nothing)
vs. Baylor (#123, 3.86) - 4.31 (13, 8 TD's)

West Virginia actually held Texas to it's second lowest points/possession this season. They did miss a field goal that might have changed things late after snapping the ball over Ash's head. Had they made that they may have scored 3.7/possession. I think there were three key differences between West Virginia's win over Texas and OSU's loss. (1) The botched snap, (2) West Virginia stopped Texas on 4th down twice and they were 5-5 against OSU, (3) Texas scored a TD in the kicking game in Stillwater.

Texas Tech, 3.59 p/p, #9 nationally
@ Texas State (#94, 2.79) - 5.17 (6, 4 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 6.00 (7, 6 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.00 (12, 3 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 1.63 (8, 1 TD, 2 FG's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 5.00 (7, 5 TD's)
@ TCU (#36, 1.79) - 3.50 (16, 8 TD's)

Obviously their performance against West Virginia is part of why Tech's numbers are so high. They were better against Texas State and New Mexico if that makes you feel better, and they were very good against a decent TCU defense.

Kansas State, 3.88 p/p, #2 nationally
vs. Miami (FL)(#93, 2.76) - 4.75 (8, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. North Texas (#75, 2.36) - 3.50 (8, 4 TD's)
@ Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 2.13 (8, 2 TD's 1 FG)
vs. Kansas (#98, 2.90) - 4.90 (10, 7 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.70 (10, 3 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 6.20 (5, 4 TD's, 1 FG)

Well there's no good way to spin that. They'd be in the top ten regardless, they have been all year. Part of the reason that number is so huge is because this game went into garbage time so quickly though. Since you scored in the kicking game your offense only had 3 possessions before this was over. Maybe you get a stop somewhere to knock it down into the 5's if the second half had mattered. I will say Snyder goes into complete vanilla mode against the cupcakes on his schedule. They could have put up 5.00 or better against North Texas and Kansas any time they really wanted to.

To summarize, I guess the answer is both "yes" and "no." Texas certainly isn't as high as they are because they played West Virginia. They've played three other awful defenses as well, and scored better against decent defenses on the road at Ole Miss and OSU than they did against West Virginia. Baylor's high mark is against West Virginia, but they're top ten without that game still, and it's not that much higher than two other games. Tech scored more against New Mexico and Texas State than on West Virginia, but since Iowa State and OU both stalled their offense I think it's fair to say they needed the West Virginia game to be in the top ten. Kansas State was at 3.61 before they played West Virginia, that would still be 9th best in the country this week, but they're at #2 instead because of that game in Morgantown.

Here's the remaining offenses on your schedule...

TCU - #47, 2.49
Oklahoma State - #27, 2.74
Oklahoma - #10, 3.35
Iowa State - #103, 1.50
Kansas - #113, 1.21

TCU's got fast receivers, a decent stable of backs that they rotate and a mobile quarterback that can make the deep throw, but he's inexperienced and has made mistakes. He also may have been injured in that Tech game.

OSU is all kinds of banged up. Hopefully Wes Lunt will finally be ready to play again this week or next though (or not hopefully in your opinion I guess). If Lunt can't go still Clint Chelf, the third string QB, will be the guy. The receiving corps is banged up a lot, but still has some playmakers. They just won't be able to rotate much. OSU is missing it's 2nd RB who usually gets 30-35% of the carries and is all conference caliber if he was on a different team. So far Randle's responded to nearly 100% of the load by being as awesome as ever, but that could change. I think OSU's offensive line will give West Virginia fits though, and if they can the rest of that might not matter much as far as how good a day your defense has.

Oklahoma has all kinds of weapons and a great quarterback... if he's not pressured. Pressure Jones and he folds like a cheap suit. Don't, he'll carve you up like a Thanksgiving turkey. They like to use Blake Bell at QB in short yardage situations in a jumbo package. Think Klien with less speed and no green light to throw the ball.

Iowa State has mobile quarterbacks and does a decent job in the running game. Put scoreboard pressure on them and force them to throw and their offense becomes incredibly inconsistent though.

Kansas sucks. They'll throw the kitchen sink at you, but it's Frodo Baggins' kitchen sink.

 

[Thick]

Great stuff RedSon, thanks for posting.

Do you do any basketball analysis by chance? If so we should talk before the season starts.

 

[Vernon]

Originally posted by Thick:
Great stuff RedSon, thanks for posting.

Do you do any basketball analysis by chance? If so we should talk before the season starts.

Look at Thick making friends with another numbers guy!

Hey bro I got some good ideas for things we can do during bball season. I'll be in contact soon.

 

[Thick]

Sounds good V, look forward to it.

 

[TheRedSon]

Originally posted by Thick:
Great stuff RedSon, thanks for posting.

Do you do any basketball analysis by chance? If so we should talk before the season starts.

Thank you, and you're welcome.

I only do basketball for OSU. It's way to big a task to do 300+ teams that play more than one day a week. At least it's way to big to do it the way I do football. I do read and look at Pomeroy's stuff fairly often during basketball season. I'm willing to talk about hoops as much as football though, especially if Travis Ford finally puts a decent product on the court. He shouldn't have any good excuses five years in.

 

[Thick]

Email me when you get a minute - hoopalytics@gmail.com.

 

[bobhertzel'ssweatpants]

Originally posted by TheRedSon:

Originally posted by mountaineer fan:
Thanks for the post. Do you have the ability to tell us how Kansas St., Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech's points per possession in the games against WVU stack up to their other games? Given we are only half way through the season, are those teams so highly ranked in part because of our poor defense?

Baylor, 3.75 points/possession, #4 nationally
vs. SMU (#63, 2.18 points/possession allowed) - 3.80/possession (10 possessions, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Louisiana-Monroe (#73, 2.32) - 4.00 (12, 6 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 4.50 (14, 9 TD's)
vs. TCU (#36, 1.79) - 2.33 (9, 3 TD's)
@ Texas (#100, 2.94) - 3.64 (14, 6 TD's, 3 FG's)

So Baylor's best offensive showing was against West Virginia, but with the exception of the TCU game (4 TO's in those 9 possessions) they played exceptionally well anyway. If they had scored 3.64 in all five games, as they did against Texas, they would still rank #9 nationally. I would also point out that against SMU they started sluggish and never played with what I'd consider 100% effort. I was at that game. In the ULM game took a two score lead into or early in the fourth quarter and played a little keep away, as much as they ever do anyway. They could have scored once more probably. Against your team they needed every bit of that effort just to keep it close.

Texas, 3.67 p/p, #8 nationally
vs. Wyoming (#104, 3.08) - 3.80 (10, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 5.67 (6, 4 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ Ole Miss (#55, 2.07) - 5.00 (9, 6 TD's, 1 FG)
@ Oklahoma State (#40, 1.90) - 3.50 (10, 5 TD's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 3.45 (11, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 0.00 (8, nothing)
vs. Baylor (#123, 3.86) - 4.31 (13, 8 TD's)

West Virginia actually held Texas to it's second lowest points/possession this season. They did miss a field goal that might have changed things late after snapping the ball over Ash's head. Had they made that they may have scored 3.7/possession. I think there were three key differences between West Virginia's win over Texas and OSU's loss. (1) The botched snap, (2) West Virginia stopped Texas on 4th down twice and they were 5-5 against OSU, (3) Texas scored a TD in the kicking game in Stillwater.

Texas Tech, 3.59 p/p, #9 nationally
@ Texas State (#94, 2.79) - 5.17 (6, 4 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. New Mexico (#103, 3.07) - 6.00 (7, 6 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.00 (12, 3 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 1.63 (8, 1 TD, 2 FG's)
vs. West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 5.00 (7, 5 TD's)
@ TCU (#36, 1.79) - 3.50 (16, 8 TD's)

Obviously their performance against West Virginia is part of why Tech's numbers are so high. They were better against Texas State and New Mexico if that makes you feel better, and they were very good against a decent TCU defense.

Kansas State, 3.88 p/p, #2 nationally
vs. Miami (FL)(#93, 2.76) - 4.75 (8, 5 TD's, 1 FG)
vs. North Texas (#75, 2.36) - 3.50 (8, 4 TD's)
@ Oklahoma (#2, 0.70) - 2.13 (8, 2 TD's 1 FG)
vs. Kansas (#98, 2.90) - 4.90 (10, 7 TD's)
@ Iowa State (#32, 1.67) - 2.70 (10, 3 TD's, 2 FG's)
@ West Virginia (#121, 3.54) - 6.20 (5, 4 TD's, 1 FG)

Well there's no good way to spin that. They'd be in the top ten regardless, they have been all year. Part of the reason that number is so huge is because this game went into garbage time so quickly though. Since you scored in the kicking game your offense only had 3 possessions before this was over. Maybe you get a stop somewhere to knock it down into the 5's if the second half had mattered. I will say Snyder goes into complete vanilla mode against the cupcakes on his schedule. They could have put up 5.00 or better against North Texas and Kansas any time they really wanted to.

To summarize, I guess the answer is both "yes" and "no." Texas certainly isn't as high as they are because they played West Virginia. They've played three other awful defenses as well, and scored better against decent defenses on the road at Ole Miss and OSU than they did against West Virginia. Baylor's high mark is against West Virginia, but they're top ten without that game still, and it's not that much higher than two other games. Tech scored more against New Mexico and Texas State than on West Virginia, but since Iowa State and OU both stalled their offense I think it's fair to say they needed the West Virginia game to be in the top ten. Kansas State was at 3.61 before they played West Virginia, that would still be 9th best in the country this week, but they're at #2 instead because of that game in Morgantown.

Here's the remaining offenses on your schedule...

TCU - #47, 2.49
Oklahoma State - #27, 2.74
Oklahoma - #10, 3.35
Iowa State - #103, 1.50
Kansas - #113, 1.21

TCU's got fast receivers, a decent stable of backs that they rotate and a mobile quarterback that can make the deep throw, but he's inexperienced and has made mistakes. He also may have been injured in that Tech game.

OSU is all kinds of banged up. Hopefully Wes Lunt will finally be ready to play again this week or next though (or not hopefully in your opinion I guess). If Lunt can't go still Clint Chelf, the third string QB, will be the guy. The receiving corps is banged up a lot, but still has some playmakers. They just won't be able to rotate much. OSU is missing it's 2nd RB who usually gets 30-35% of the carries and is all conference caliber if he was on a different team. So far Randle's responded to nearly 100% of the load by being as awesome as ever, but that could change. I think OSU's offensive line will give West Virginia fits though, and if they can the rest of that might not matter much as far as how good a day your defense has.

Oklahoma has all kinds of weapons and a great quarterback... if he's not pressured. Pressure Jones and he folds like a cheap suit. Don't, he'll carve you up like a Thanksgiving turkey. They like to use Blake Bell at QB in short yardage situations in a jumbo package. Think Klien with less speed and no green light to throw the ball.

Iowa State has mobile quarterbacks and does a decent job in the running game. Put scoreboard pressure on them and force them to throw and their offense becomes incredibly inconsistent though.

Kansas sucks. They'll throw the kitchen sink at you, but it's Frodo Baggins' kitchen sink.

Really good stuff Red Son. Thanks for posting it & continue to post these type of things. It's interesting to look at when you are trying to get a handle on what your eyeballs are seeing on the field. I wonder if there is any statistical data to show what happened to our offense. I figured we would dropoff at some point. No team can sustain what we were doing for a full season. But I figured a dropoff would be 28-30 points on offense, not 7. Are Texas Tech & Kansas State's defenses that good or is it just a total collapse by our offense?

 

[TheRedSon]

No, there is no reason to have expected either Tech or Kansas State to shut down your offense the way they did. Tech struggled with Oklahoma's and TCU's offenses, and their defense has been solid but nothing special since their competition stepped up in conference play. I speculated the wind may have had something to do with it, but most fans here disagreed. I don't know, but Smith looked pretty wild and inaccurate to me that day. In the eight or nine games I've watched him the Syracuse game last year was the only one I thought he looked as bad in, and he was consistently pressured that game. Kansas State's defense is very good, but not so good they should shut down your offense in that manner. I think normally your offense is well designed to exploit their weakness, which is speed in the secondary. Look what Baylor, OSU, Oklahoma and Tech did to them last year. Your team has similar personnel and strategy. I think your kids were just flat for some reason. I'd like to think there was some brliant strategy that can be duplicated since we haven't played you yet.

 

[GoWVU]

TheRedSon, thank you. This is outstanding stuff...

I've been in professional sports for 18 years and do a bit of this sort of thing myself. I've seen points/possession in basketball, but had not seen it applied to football before. Well done, please feel free to keep sharing more information in the future.

 

[TheRedSon]

Re: TheRedSon, thank you. This is outstanding stuff...

Originally posted by GoWVU:
I've been in professional sports for 18 years and do a bit of this sort of thing myself. I've seen points/possession in basketball, but had not seen it applied to football before. Well done, please feel free to keep sharing more information in the future.

Thank you very much.

It is a bit different than doing it for basketball. Mostly because there's a third phase other than just offense and defense in football, but also when there's a score on a turnover in football it is clearly the defense doing the scoring. In basketball the transition from offense to defense is seamless. Football also makes it difficult to determine how many possessions there actually are with teams downing a football with 1:30 in the first half. I usually don't count end of half possessions unless I can determine a clear and honest effort to score from the play-by-play data. In basketball it's not that big of a deal if you're off by one possession since there may be more than 50/game. We rarely see 20 in a football contest, and usually more like 12-15. Making a distinction between gargabe and nongarbage time in football makes this more valid as well. In basketball when one team gets way ahead they don't stop trying to score even when they start milking the clock. Oregon didn't even score in the second half against Arizona State last week, but that doesn't effect this because it was all garbage time that I removed from the picture.

I've never done this for basketball because I've never found an easy way to get data on offensive fouls. When you start looking at things on a per/possession basis it becomes crucial that you be able to tell when possessions end.

Anyway, I'd be happy to share more of my stuff here. Especially since there appears to be some interest and I get some feedback. It's not much fun when I do this and no one responds, so thanks for all of your replies.

 

[bobhertzel'ssweatpants]

Originally posted by TheRedSon:
No, there is no reason to have expected either Tech or Kansas State to shut down your offense the way they did. Tech struggled with Oklahoma's and TCU's offenses, and their defense has been solid but nothing special since their competition stepped up in conference play. I speculated the wind may have had something to do with it, but most fans here disagreed. I don't know, but Smith looked pretty wild and inaccurate to me that day. In the eight or nine games I've watched him the Syracuse game last year was the only one I thought he looked as bad in, and he was consistently pressured that game. Kansas State's defense is very good, but not so good they should shut down your offense in that manner. I think normally your offense is well designed to exploit their weakness, which is speed in the secondary. Look what Baylor, OSU, Oklahoma and Tech did to them last year. Your team has similar personnel and strategy. I think your kids were just flat for some reason. I'd like to think there was some brliant strategy that can be duplicated since we haven't played you yet.

I think that is our issue now. We knew the defense was awful. Some of our fans (even I got a little caught up in it) deluded themselves into thinking that defense would not matter at any point in the season because we could just outscore everyone. But the bottom line is that we wouldn't have gone undefeated with that porous of a defense. Eventually our luck would have run out even if the offense continued it's torrid pace. However, not only did the offense slow down, it came completely unraveled. And that is what has led to the blowout losses.

I honestly think our only chance to turn things around is to do something that I know coaches will never allow happen. And that is to never punt. What's the point in punting when you basically have no chance to stop the opposing offense? I know it won't happen & most people would say that's crazy, but I do think that's our only chance of turning this thing around. There are some guys on our premium board that are much smarter than me when it comes to statistical analysis who have also suggested this as a change. They basically proved that it's not all that risky to deploy that strategy based on how our defense is performing.
This post was edited on 10/26 1:06 PM by bobhertzel'ssweatpants

 

[TheRedSon]

It's not that risky if you can't stop anyone. I don't know that that is necessarily the case yet. There is only one more great offense on your schedule (unless my Cowboys get the ship right soon). Your defense will bounce back some against Kansas and Iowa State, and may be enough to slow down TCU and OSU. Right now neither of those two teams look capable of putting up 4 points/possession, and that's what your offense has done prior to the last two weeks.

Your offense puts scoreboard pressure on opposing teams. That helps defenses. It didn't do that against Tech or K-State. I think that's the thing that needs to be fixed the most right now. There's only so much that can be done for the defense without new talent, but we all know that offense can play like one of the best in the country and the last two weeks it's played like the worst offense in the conference.

 

[Thick]

Re: TheRedSon, thank you. This is outstanding stuff...

RedSon, I use statsheet.com play by play for basketball. Their possession breaks are color coded so you can skim pretty quickly to identify whatever specific type of play you're looking for.

You'll always have an audience for good analytics here. Post away my friend.